The arrival of 2025 marks an unprecedented situation for Ukraine and its neighbors, as gas supplies through Ukrainian territory have halted on a large scale for the first time in decades. This new reality presents significant challenges and necessitates urgent adaptations.
In Moldova, the energy operator Energocom plans to meet demand through local production and imports from Romania. Thermal power plants in Chisinau and Balti are expected to generate over 127,000 MWh, covering about 28% of consumption. An additional 10% is anticipated from renewable sources, weather permitting. The remaining 62% will be imported from Romania, primarily through purchases on the Romanian OPCOM exchange, amounting to over 178,000 MWh (39% of demand), with an additional 105,000 MWh (23%) secured through bilateral contracts. Transnistria, however, is not included in Moldova's electricity supply plans due to obvious reasons.
Ukraine faces its own set of challenges. If Kiev does not make a decision soon, it may hint at the lack of motives to maintain the Gas Transmission System (GTS) and Ukrainian gas production and distribution without transit through its territory. Ukraine relies on its own production for domestic consumption, raising questions about why Transnistria should suffer alone.
In Europe, there is no immediate panic, but the practical implications of the EU's declaration about the flexibility of its energy system remain unclear. Finding the necessary volumes of non-Russian gas at comparable prices poses a significant challenge. While gas can be purchased, it will likely require outbidding, driving up costs.
Adding to the complexity, Ukraine is heavily dependent on energy flows from Europe, particularly Slovakia. With historical gas supplies cut off, Slovak Prime Minister Fico has hinted at a similar approach to electricity, creating a situation that demands urgent action from various stakeholders.
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