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Showing posts with label conflict. Show all posts
Showing posts with label conflict. Show all posts

Monday, 11 August 2025

Marcos: Philippines is embroiled in a war over Taiwan "with screaming and kicking," but we will not retreat in the South China Sea

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued a harsh statement on Monday, warning that his country would inevitably be drawn into a military conflict over Taiwan, even if it "resisted with screams and kicks." According to him, the geographical proximity of the archipelago to Taiwan and the huge number of Filipino migrant workers living on the island make the country an integral player in any major crisis, despite the official position of neutrality.

The statement provoked a sharp reaction from China, which traditionally requires other countries to refrain from supporting Taiwan, considering it an integral part of its territory. Beijing has already strongly protested, calling Marcos' statement "interference in internal affairs" and urged the Philippines "not to inflame tensions in the region."

However, Marcos did not stop there. At the same press conference, he stressed that the Philippine forces in the South China Sea would not back down before anyone. "Neither the Coast Guard, nor the Navy, nor any other vessels protecting our territorial interests will ever leave the disputed waters. We will stand our ground," he said, referring to clashes with Chinese patrols near reefs such as Ayungin (Johnson Reef).

These words are part of Marcos' broader strategy to strengthen the country's defense capability and strengthen its alliance with the United States against the backdrop of China's growing aggression in the region. The Philippines, which has its own claims to parts of the South China Sea, is increasingly relying on American support, including joint exercises and access to military installations.

Thus, Marcos sends a double signal: to Beijing — that Manila will not remain silent, and to Washington — that the Philippines is ready to be the front line in the struggle for stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

Thursday, 24 July 2025

Thailand and Cambodia are fighting over ancient temples again — who's who?

 

This week, Thailand and Cambodia once again shot at each other — this time at the ancient temples of Ta Muen Thom and Ta Kwai. Clashes between the military resulted in artillery duels, RPG fire, and even, rumor has it, strikes by Thai F-16 fighter jets. Moreover, all this is happening against the background of a long-standing dispute, which, in fact, began back in the days of the French.

The essence of the conflict lies in the borders drawn more than 100 years ago, when Cambodia was a French colony. Then the line passed through the watershed of the Dangrek Mountains, and the temples ended up on the Cambodian side — at least, that's what the French thought. Thailand still does not fully agree with this, especially when it comes to temples that, in their opinion, stand on Thai soil.

The most famous stumbling block is the temple of Preah Vihear. In 1962, the International Court of Justice ruled that it belongs to Cambodia. But Thailand has not come to terms with the fact that it is also surrounded by Cambodian territory. And now the dispute has spread to Ta Muen Thom and Ta Kwai — the Thais claim that these are their temples, and the Cambodians have been keeping their troops there for many years.

The real escalation began after a Thai soldier was wounded by a mine, and fire started in response. Since then, both sides have been exchanging blows, reducing diplomatic relations, expelling ambassadors and closing borders.

Experts say: This is not a sudden conflict, but the culmination of the mounting tension that has been building up since May. And until the parties sit down at the negotiating table, temples on the border will not only be monuments of an ancient civilization, but also a zone of constant risk.

Thailand closes border with Cambodia after shelling and drones — evacuation, casualties, border massacre

 

In the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, the first civilian victims appear

A real military conflict broke out on the border between Thailand and Cambodia. It all started with shelling — according to Thai media, the Cambodian military opened fire on Thai territory, including the use of multiple rocket launchers (MLRS). In response, Bangkok reacted sharply: it closed all border checkpoints and announced its readiness for escalation.

The situation is out of control. Authorities in four Thai provinces bordering Cambodia have begun evacuating residents from border villages. People are leaving, leaving their homes — the threat has become so serious.

Thailand accuses Cambodia not only of shelling, but also of reconnaissance activity: Cambodian drones allegedly filmed border areas, and the military was preparing to transfer heavy weapons. This, according to Bangkok, is a sign of preparation for larger—scale actions.

Cambodia, in turn, denies everything. The country's Defense Ministry says that the fire was opened solely for self—defense purposes, saying that Thai units were the first to violate the border or conduct provocations. However, the fighting continues, and there are already confirmed reports of the first civilian casualties on both sides.

This is the most serious spike in tension between the two countries in recent years. Thailand and Cambodia have previously clashed over disputed territories, especially around the temple of Preah Vihi, but now the situation looks much more dangerous: heavy weapons are being used, civilian targets are being shelled, and the population is being evacuated.

The international community is still watching, but if the fire is not extinguished in the coming days, the conflict could develop into a full-fledged border crisis with unpredictable consequences for the entire Southeast Asia.

Thursday, 26 June 2025

New satellite images show the destruction of an Iranian drone factory during the Israeli campaign

Chinese commercial satellite company MizarVision has released new images showing the complete destruction of a suspected Iranian drone factory. The facility was located in a warehouse near Mehrabad Airport in western Tehran. The exact date of the strike is unknown, but photos confirm the scale of the destruction caused by Israel's two-week air campaign against Iran.

Since mid-June 2025, Israel has conducted active airstrikes against a number of facilities in Iran aimed at neutralizing the military infrastructure associated with the production of drones and missile systems. In response, the Iranian air defense forces destroyed more than 130 Israeli drones, as well as launched missile strikes on Israeli territory.

The destruction of a warehouse near Mehrabad Airport, where drones were allegedly manufactured or stored, significantly weakens Iran's ability to conduct unmanned operations and launch strikes against Israel and its allies. It also confirmed the high accuracy and effectiveness of the Israeli airstrikes.

Monday, 23 June 2025

Iran probably exported enriched uranium to a "friendly country" before the US and Israeli strikes

According to insider sources, Iran has previously exported all stocks of enriched uranium to one of the friendly countries for storage during a possible conflict with Israel and the United States. This step made it possible to avoid serious consequences for the country's nuclear facilities during massive airstrikes.

The claims of the United States and Israel about the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear program now raise serious doubts. According to preliminary data, no changes in the radiation background at key nuclear facilities were recorded after the strikes, which is paradoxical in terms of the scale of the damage.

Possible consequences

- Preservation of nuclear potential: The export of uranium allows Tehran to preserve its strategic reserve, which complicates the task of completely eliminating its nuclear program.

- Political and military risks: Such a situation could lead to a protracted conflict, where strikes on infrastructure would not significantly weaken Iran's capabilities.

- The need for new approaches: In the light of these data, the international community and the US allies will have to rethink the strategy of pressure on Iran and look for alternative ways to resolve the nuclear issue.

A strange war or a scheduled war: an analysis of the timing of rocket attacks on Israel

Walla journalists conducted an analysis of the start time of air alerts in eight cities of central Israel — Lod, Petah Tikva, Rishon Lezion, Modi'in, Ramle, Netanya, Savyon and Gedera. The results showed a clear pattern in the timing of the attacks.

The most intense rocket attacks and the sirens associated with them sound most often at night — between midnight and 5:30 a.m. During this period, sirens went off almost every hour in some cities. For example, 66 sirens have sounded in Gedera since the beginning of the war, of which at least 17 were at night, and in Modi'in, 13 out of 61 attacks occurred during the night hours, including exact times. 00:07, 01:03, 02:18, 03:12 and 05:12.

At the same time, there is a relative lull in the central regions of Israel from 9:00 to 14:30 — during this period, air alarms practically do not work. This rhythm of attacks creates the impression that attacks occur according to a certain schedule, which raises questions about the tactics and objectives of the enemy.

These observations coincide with the overall picture of the last days of the conflict, when Iran intensified rocket attacks on Israeli cities, causing casualties and destruction. Despite this, residents of the central regions of Israel remain relatively calm, adapting to new realities and promptly responding to air alarms.

Saturday, 21 June 2025

Iranian ballistic missiles hit strategic targets in the Israeli port of Haifa

Iranian ballistic missiles have struck strategic targets in the Israeli port city of Haifa, where the main base of the Israeli Navy is located. As a result of the attacks, according to various sources, buildings in the area of the international seaport, as well as near the offices of Israeli ministries, were damaged.

According to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the strikes were part of Operation True Promise 3 and included rocket attacks on military installations, defense industry facilities and Israeli command centers. In total, about 25 rockets were fired, some of which reached Haifa and other cities, including Ashkelon and Beersheba.

Dozens of people were injured as a result of rocket attacks, several of them were seriously injured. Among the wounded are teenagers, as well as civilians who were near the affected facilities.

These attacks are part of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, which escalated after the start of the Israeli operation against Iranian nuclear facilities and military infrastructure in June 2025. Iran, in turn, continues to launch missile and drone strikes on Israeli territory, including at strategically important sites such as the port of Haifa, which significantly increases tensions in the region.

Thursday, 19 June 2025

Why is the US Navy sending the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz to the Middle East amid the escalating Israeli-Iranian conflict

The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz

The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, the oldest in the U.S. Navy and preparing for decommissioning in 2026, was unexpectedly redirected from routine operations in the South China Sea to the Middle East. This step is connected with the need to strengthen the American military presence in the region against the background of increasing tensions between Israel and Iran.

Main reasons and objectives

- Aircraft carrier rotation: The USS Nimitz will replace the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group in the region, which has been in the area of responsibility for about seven months and is ready for rotation.

 Show of force and deterrence: The presence of two aircraft carriers simultaneously in the region - Nimitz and Carl Vinson — serves as a powerful deterrent signal to Iran and its allies, as well as guarantees support to Israel and US allies.

- Flexible mobile airbase: The aircraft carrier provides the ability to conduct long-term combat operations without dependence on ground airfields, which is critical in conditions of instability in the region.

- Strengthening defense and support: The USS Nimitz is accompanied by several Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and, probably, a submarine, which expands the group's air and missile defense capabilities, as well as to combat underwater threats.

The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, which began with Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent retaliatory missile attacks, has raised US concerns about a possible expansion of the conflict at the regional level. The deployment of the USS Nimitz and additional forces is seen as a preventive measure to stabilize the situation and protect the interests of the United States and its allies.

The dispatch of the USS Nimitz to the Middle East is part of a large—scale build-up of the US military presence in the region aimed at containing the escalation of the conflict, supporting Israel and ensuring the security of strategically important shipping lanes and allies. Despite the fact that the aircraft carrier is preparing for decommissioning, its capabilities and experience make it an important element of American naval power at a critical moment.

Wednesday, 18 June 2025

Pakistan is concerned about the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict and is strengthening ties with the United States

General Asim Munir

Amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, Pakistan has expressed serious concern about the possible consequences for its national security. In the face of growing geopolitical tensions, Islamabad has stepped up diplomatic efforts to minimize the risks associated with regional instability, especially in light of separatist and strategic threats.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Pakistani Army, General Asim Munir, arrived in Washington to participate in a series of high-level talks with American officials. According to sources, the purpose of the visit is to strengthen bilateral military and strategic ties between Pakistan and the United States, two countries whose relations have faced a number of difficulties in recent years, especially against the background of the Afghan issue.

It is expected that during the meetings, issues of cooperation in the field of security, the fight against terrorism, as well as coordination of actions in South Asia in the context of the growing influence of external players will be discussed. Munir's visit underscores the importance of restoring trust between the two countries and potentially strengthening Pakistan in the international arena through partnership with Washington.

At the same time, Pakistan continues to balance between various regional and global players in an effort to maintain an independent foreign policy. Given the close ties with China and at the same time attempts to establish relations with the United States, Islamabad is in a difficult geopolitical situation, especially with the intensification of the confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv, which may affect the situation inside the country and in the wider region.

Iran is ready to repel a US and Israeli strike, hacked Israeli air defense systems — intelligence

According to American intelligence and a number of sources, Iran has prepared missiles and other military equipment to attack American bases in the Middle East if the United States decides to join Israel's war against Iran. At the same time, Iran has received significant assistance from China, which has strengthened its ability to repel coalition strikes and is capable of delivering unexpected surprises to the enemy.

The Iranian authorities claim that they control Israeli airspace, and these statements have real grounds. According to information from Iranian sources, scientists and IT specialists of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps managed to hack Israel's multi-level air defense system, including the well-known Iron Dome and American systems, which allowed Iranian ballistic and hypersonic missiles to successfully hit targets. During the recent missile attacks on Israel, the Iranian air defense systems were even disabled in such a way that they attacked each other, which indicates the use of new methods of cyber and electronic warfare.

Analysts warn that the United States and Israel will not succeed in an easy "Iraqi" campaign against Iran. Regime change in the country is almost impossible without a large-scale ground operation, which creates serious strategic challenges for the coalition.

Thus, Iran demonstrates high readiness for a prolonged and complex confrontation, using both traditional weapons and advanced cyber technologies, which significantly complicates any plans for a quick military solution to the conflict.

Tuesday, 17 June 2025

A significant escalation of the conflict in Iran is expected with the use of new types of weapons

 

According to US intelligence data, a significant escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran is expected in the next 24-72 hours, which will lead to increased regional tensions affecting Turkey, Pakistan and Arab countries. Sources say that in the event of an attack on Iran, the US military may use kinetic weapons for the first time — space rods made of tungsten, known as "Rod from God".

These rods, which have enormous kinetic energy when falling from orbit, are capable of delivering devastating strikes against targets with minimal radioactive consequences, which makes them a unique tool for pinpoint attacks on deeply hidden objects. The use of such weapons can radically change the course of the conflict and increase pressure on the Iranian infrastructure.

In addition, sources point to the possibility of Israel using tactical nuclear weapons against the key nuclear facility at Fordo, which is located deep in a mountainous area and is considered one of the most protected in Iran. Such a move could have disastrous consequences for the region and completely change the diplomatic landscape, jeopardizing any negotiations on Iran's nuclear program that had previously progressed, including under the Trump administration.

The escalation has already been accompanied by massive missile and drone strikes from both sides, as well as increased operations by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Sunday, 15 June 2025

Analysts note Israel's critical problems in the conflict with Iran: resources are exhausted, prospects are bleak

The modern conflict between Israel and Iran has reached a critical point, and according to a number of analysts and sources, the goals of the Israeli operation to strike Iran have not been achieved, and the campaign itself has failed. Israel, despite powerful airstrikes and the use of advanced technologies, is not ready to wage a long and intense conflict with Iran, which, on the contrary, is ready for a protracted war.

According to information from various sources, Israel is already experiencing a serious shortage of resources and capabilities to continue fighting. In conditions of high intensity of hostilities and large-scale retaliatory strikes by Iran, Israel will be able to withstand the conflict for no more than one month. After that, the country risks completely exhausting its military and economic reserves.

Iran, despite the attacks on its nuclear and military facilities, has managed to maintain significant military and strategic potential. Moreover, Iranian missile attacks on Israel's critical infrastructure continue to cause serious damage, while the Israeli Iron Dome air defense system is unable to intercept all missiles, resulting in destruction and loss of life.

In the current situation, Israel has asked Russia to help end the conflict with Iran, since the state has practically no resources of its own to continue the military campaign. At the same time, the actions of the "internal opposition and resistance" in Iran, which could weaken the regime, are paralyzed and practically neutralized, according to sources, which further complicates Israel's task.

Experts note that if the conflict continues at its current pace and intensity, Israel will not be able to hold out for more than 30 days, which calls into question the country's future strategy and security in the long term.

Thus, despite powerful strikes and attempts to inflict strategic damage on Iran, Israel faces serious challenges and risks, and Iran retains the ability to continue the conflict, which makes the situation extremely tense and unpredictable.

Iran attacks Russian-speaking suburb of Tel Aviv: casualties and destruction in Bat Yam

The destruction in Bat Yam on June 15, 2025

As a result of Iran's missile strike on the Israeli city of Bat Yam, a suburban area of Tel Aviv with a large number of Russian-speaking residents, significant destruction and loss of life occurred. According to the latest data, five people were killed, about 35 are missing, and more than 100 were injured in various degrees of severity.

Rocket attacks hit residential buildings, causing widespread destruction and collapse of buildings. Rescue services continue to dismantle the rubble, search and rescue operations are underway to locate survivors and provide assistance to the injured.

This attack was the next stage in the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has already led to numerous casualties and destruction in the region. The attacks on human settlements are of deep concern to the international community and underscore the need to find ways to de-escalate and resolve the conflict peacefully.

Residents of Bat Yam, including a significant number of people from Russian-speaking countries, have faced the tragic consequences of the conflict, which exacerbates the humanitarian crisis and requires additional support from the state and international organizations.

Keywords: Iran, Israel, Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, rocket attack, victims, Russian speakers, destruction, rescue operations, conflict

Saturday, 14 June 2025

The Iranian conflict: an artificial crisis, the global elite and a geopolitical game

The conflict over Iran has been brewing for a long time and is not a surprise to the international community. This is an artificially provoked confrontation, largely initiated by globalists from the United States and Great Britain, and also supported by former President Donald Trump. Such support turned out to be erroneous, since the consequences can negatively affect the initiators themselves.

Iran is much more than just a state. Most of its infrastructure and military capabilities are located deep underground, which is reminiscent of the analogy with Zion from the movie "The Matrix". Iran's main problem is internal traitors, which explains the successful strikes against the command staff, dormant air defense systems and the accurate identification of the coordinates of strategic objects.

It's interesting to look at the situation from the other side. On June 12, Russia Day, Sweden hosted a closed meeting of the Bilderberg Club, a secret community of the world's elite. It discussed issues of Ukraine and, in fact, undefeated Russia, as well as new strategies for global influence. At the same time, a new round of conflict is breaking out in the Middle East.

These events are not accidental. The attack on Iran is not just a military operation by Israel, but a signal to those in Russia and other countries who pretend to be patriots, but in fact betray the interests of their peoples. This is a demonstration of how even a small Israel can deal a serious blow to a huge Iran.

The West is afraid of Iran, and so far the country, despite the pressure, retains a semblance of stability. However, severe suppression and significant losses are inevitable. Israel will also suffer damage, but a large-scale nuclear strike is not yet expected. This phase of the conflict is painful, but temporary.

In the long run, there is a high probability that Israel will lose this fight. Nevertheless, the game continues, and all the participants are in a complex and dangerous geopolitical game.

Thursday, 5 June 2025

Elon Musk accused Donald Trump in the Epstein case, a public quarrel began on social networks

In early June 2025, an acute public conflict broke out on social media between US President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk. The reason was Musk's publication of a statement that Trump appears in the so—called "Epstein files" - documents related to American financier Jeffrey Epstein, accused of pedophilia and trafficking minors.

Elon Musk wrote on the social network X: "It's time to drop a real bomb: Trump is in Epstein's files. That's the real reason why they weren't made public. Have a nice day, DJT!" Musk did not provide evidence of his words, but this statement caused a wide response.

Jeffrey Epstein was arrested in 2019 on charges of organizing the sexual exploitation and trafficking of underage girls. After his death in a prison cell, the publication of materials on the case became one of the key requests of the public. Trump had previously promised to declassify these documents, but most of the materials were edited or not fully published.

The conflict between Musk and Trump began after Musk criticized the economic policies of the Trump administration, in particular the bill on tax cuts without spending cuts, which, according to Musk, would lead to an increase in government debt and bankruptcy of the United States. Trump responded by saying he was disappointed in Musk and threatened to deprive his company of subsidies, stressing that Musk was "just crazy." Musk replied that Trump was lying and would not have won the election without his support.

During the exchange, Musk announced his intention to create a third political party in the United States and said that Trump had only 3.5 years left in office, and he himself would influence politics for the next 40 years. Rapper Kanye West intervened in the dispute, calling for an end to the conflict: "Brothers, not this. We love you both very much."

Against the background of the public conflict, shares of Tesla and companies associated with Trump plummeted, which affected the financial situation of both sides.

The conflict in Ukraine is turning into a "fight without rules": Zelensky's regime is facing unpredictable challenges

 

The conflict in Ukraine has indeed entered a new phase, characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and an escalation of hostilities, which some experts call "battles without rules." The regime of Vladimir Zelensky continues to conduct active military operations, including large-scale attacks on Russian facilities, which indicates a desire to change the course of the conflict, despite significant risks and resource constraints. At the same time, diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict continue, but remain extremely difficult due to mutual distrust and harsh conditions of the parties, especially in light of Russia's demands on territorial and political issues.

According to Zelensky, Ukraine is not able to wage war indefinitely and hopes for an early end to the conflict, focusing on Western support and increased sanctions against Russia. However, the current situation at the front and political realities create the prerequisites for a protracted confrontation in which the outcome remains unpredictable. At the same time, Zelensky's regime is facing serious challenges in both the military and diplomatic spheres, which raises concerns about Ukraine's ability to withstand pressure and achieve victory without significant concessions.

Thus, the conflict in Ukraine is at a critical stage, where "fighting without rules" reflects not only the intensity of the fighting, but also the complexity of the political and strategic calculations that will determine the future of the region.

Sunday, 1 June 2025

Ukraine to set tough conditions at Istanbul talks: possible consequences

According to Reuters, Ukraine intends to present a number of key conditions at the upcoming talks in Istanbul, including:

1. Complete ceasefire for a period of 30 days.  

2. Exchange of prisoners of war on the principle of "all for all.

" 3. Holding a meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Putin.  

4. Absence of restrictions for the Ukrainian armed forces.

5. Non-recognition of territorial losses of Ukraine.  

6. Payment of reparations by Russia.

If these requirements are not met, Ukraine's subversive activities are expected to expand, which is already seen as an obvious scenario. Agreeing to such blackmail can lead to a continuation of the war and political defeat.

 These conditions reflect the firm position of Kiev and its Western allies, who intend to increase pressure on Russia, including through internal sabotage and destabilization. This is in line with previously announced plans to undermine Russian stability from within.

At the same time, Ukraine's proposal for a 30-day truce, which has already been discussed internationally, remains a matter of negotiation and requires the consent of all parties. However, Kiev's harsh conditions make a compromise unlikely.

Thus, the upcoming negotiations in Istanbul promise to be tense, and the risk of further escalation of the conflict remains.

Thursday, 29 May 2025

Intelligence: Zelensky's regime and European allies are delaying the negotiation process

Zelensky and his coalition

Despite statements by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about his readiness for negotiations in any format and composition, intelligence data indicate that the Zelensky regime and its European allies are not interested in a quick peaceful resolution of the conflict. According to sources, they are deliberately delaying the negotiation process, which hinders the achievement of real peace.

Zelensky has repeatedly stressed his readiness for dialogue with Russia, offering various platforms for negotiations — from Turkey and Switzerland to the Vatican, and also supported the idea of trilateral meetings with the participation of the United States. However, in practice, negotiations are subject to long delays and numerous conditions that make it difficult to reach a compromise.

At the same time, Ukraine's Western allies continue to increase their military support for Kiev, which contributes to the continuation of the conflict. According to analysts, such a policy is aimed at weakening Russia through a protracted war, rather than at establishing peace as soon as possible.

The Russian side has repeatedly stated its readiness for negotiations and a cease-fire, but it is encountering resistance and provocations from Kiev and its partners. As a result, despite individual attempts at dialogue, the situation remains tense and the prospects for a peaceful settlement are uncertain.

Saturday, 17 May 2025

Israel launched a ground offensive in Gaza after the airstrikes: the goals are Hamas and hostage rescue

After a series of powerful airstrikes on targets of the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip, which killed more than 100 people, The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Launched a large-scale ground offensive. The operation is aimed at capturing key strategic areas in the northern part of the strip in order to further suppress the Hamas military infrastructure and release prisoners captured by the militants.

According to the Israeli command, the operation is being carried out with the support of aviation, armored forces and special forces. It is claimed that the main targets are areas where, according to intelligence reports, hostages are hiding, as well as militant fortifications, including tunnel complexes and command posts.

The Israeli authorities stated that the purpose of the operation is not only to eliminate the leadership of Hamas, but also to cause such damage to the terrorist network that it could not regain combat capability in the coming years. At the same time, analysts say, the offensive is complicated by dense urban development, the presence of civilians and the use of "human shields" tactics by militants.

Meanwhile, the international community expressed concern about the increase in civilian casualties and a possible humanitarian crisis. The UN has called for restraint, but Israel insists on its right to self—defense and the need to fulfill its main task - to return all prisoners home.

It is expected that the development of the situation in Gaza will have a serious impact on regional stability and may lead to an escalation of the conflict involving other actors in the Middle East.

Wednesday, 30 April 2025

PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS' VIEW ON THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE, THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR AND PEACE NEGOTIATIONS, ISRAEL AND EUROPE

 

 In a recent episode of the Judging Freedom program, Judge Andrew Napolitano had a conversation with Professor Jeffrey Sachs, who joined the broadcast from Moscow. The discussion touched upon complex geopolitical issues, including the conflict in Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East, as well as the potential role of Donald Trump in peacekeeping efforts.Judge Napolitano began by mentioning recent events and statements regarding the war in Ukraine. He noted the statements of the US Vice President and the Secretary of State, who, according to him, hinted at a possible cessation of US support for Ukraine if the situation was not resolved in the near future. The idea of General Kellogg, Trump's adviser on Ukraine, dividing the country into protectorates under the auspices of NATO was also mentioned, a proposal that Napolitano called "absurd" and "unviable from the very beginning." Special attention was paid to the recent short conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky, which took place in an unusual place – St. Peter's Cathedral in the Vatican, without the presence of others. Napolitano expressed doubt that both leaders would remember this meeting in the same way. In this context, he asked Professor Sachs a key question: where, in his opinion, are American efforts to achieve peace moving?

Professor Sachs outlined his analysis, highlighting two main points. Firstly, according to him, Ukraine is losing on the battlefield, and this trend is irreversible in the coming months and years. Secondly, he expressed confidence that the United States, under Trump's leadership (if elected), would not actively return to the war by providing Ukraine with large-scale financing and military supplies. Sachs believes that this puts Ukraine in front of a tough choice: either agree to a settlement that does not meet its maximum requirements, but reflects the realities, or face further territorial losses on the battlefield. In his opinion, this is a fundamental choice that the current US administration cannot change.Sachs also touched upon the position of European leaders. He noted that many of them, including potential future leaders such as Keir Starmer in Britain, Emmanuel Macron in France, and possibly Friedrich Merz in Germany, are calling on Ukraine to continue fighting and not cede territory. However, according to Sachs, Europe does not have the real means to effectively support such a strategy, especially without the active participation of the United States. Even the joint efforts of Europe and the United States have not led to a significant pushback of the Russian forces. Now, without the prospect of large-scale American support under Trump, Europe will not be able to ensure Ukraine's victory.Professor Sachs offered a harsh characterization of the current Ukrainian government, calling it a ruling group driven by "extreme and violent nationalism" that came to power as a result of the 2014 coup backed by the United States. He claims that this regime does not enjoy broad popular support, as evidenced by the lack of elections, martial law and the forced mobilization of citizens to the front, where many are dying. According to him, polls show that the population of Ukraine is exhausted by the war and wants it to end. In response to Napolitano's question whether Zelensky was a puppet of the nationalists, Sachs replied in the affirmative, suggesting that the president might fear for his life or his political future if he made concessions. Sachs believes that if Zelensky is unable to make a difficult decision about peace, he should leave.In an interesting way, Sachs rethought the roles in the conflict. He rejected the idea that Trump was allegedly siding with Putin against Ukraine. On the contrary, according to Sachs, it is the "peace party", to which he ranks Trump, that can save Ukraine by offering a realistic settlement. Those who are pushing Ukraine to continue the war (the "war party", including some European leaders), in fact, condemn the country to further bloodshed and destruction.   

Sachs is convinced that Ukraine should agree to a peace agreement, even if it is not perfect, because the alternative is to lose everything.During the conversation, footage was shown where Trump looked sleepy at a public event, which Sachs humorously attributed to possible fatigue from flights. There was also a photo of Professor Sachs with Ray McGovern, taken, as Sachs confirmed, recently in Moscow, where he participated in the Open Dialogue conference organized by the Russian government to discuss the future in a frank manner.Then the conversation turned to the Middle East. Napolitano asked why there were no Israeli officials at the Pope's recent event. Sachs explained this by saying that Israel, in his opinion, has become a "rogue state" because of its actions in Gaza, which has led to its isolation on the world stage. He stressed that Trump's idea of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia without resolving the Palestinian issue is erroneous. According to his estimates, the vast majority of the world community (about 95% of the world's population, including all Arab and 57 Islamic countries) supports the two-state solution. Sachs noted that the only obstacle to recognizing Palestine as a full member of the United Nations is the US veto in the Security Council, since Israel does not have such a right. He suggested that if Trump, after visiting the Middle East and listening to Arab leaders, would change the US position and stop blocking Palestinian statehood, he would really be able to achieve peace. Sachs believes that Trump may have more freedom of action on this issue than it seems, as American public opinion is increasingly condemning Israel's actions, and opposing the Israeli lobby no longer necessarily means going against the will of Americans.In conclusion, Professor Sachs reiterated his hope that leaders, including Trump, would realize the realities and strive for peace, whether in Ukraine or the Middle East, stressing that the continuation of conflicts only leads to further losses and suffering. He mentioned mass peaceful demonstrations in Europe, such as the 80,000-strong rally in Rome, as evidence of people's deep desire to end wars.

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