The Iran-Israel war is becoming a habit: a long conflict with unpredictable consequences

 

Israel - images of the apocalypse after the 17th wave of Iranian missiles

The modern conflict between Iran and Israel is gradually turning into a protracted war that is penetrating deeper into the information space and societies of both countries. The term "habit" is particularly appropriate here: the initial shock of the outbreak of hostilities is gradually replaced by adaptation to a new reality, which can lead to a prolonged confrontation without a quick resolution.

Geographical and logistical constraints

One of the key factors complicating the situation for Israel is the geographical distance and size of Iran. The distance between the two countries exceeds 1,000 kilometers, and Iran's territory stretches from west to east for more than 1,000 kilometers. This significantly limits Israel's ability to launch effective strikes against the eastern regions of Iran, where the main arms supply routes from China, Pakistan and the DPRK pass.

Arms supplies and Iran's resilience

Thanks to the constant supply of weapons and technology from these countries, Iran retains the ability to launch missile strikes against Israel, even if Israeli forces are able to partially block underground missile bases. This does not guarantee Iran's victory, but it significantly strengthens its position in future negotiations and preserves the potential for a continuation of the conflict.

Internal consolidation in Iran

Attempts to shake Iran from within have not been successful. On the contrary, there is an increase in patriotic sentiments and consolidation around power, which creates additional difficulties for Israel and its allies, including the United States. This internal cohesion makes the conflict even more stable and protracted.

Prospects for conflict and the role of the United States

Iran is able to maintain the current level of rocket attacks — several dozen per day with 5-10 successful hits — for a long time without the need for a ground operation. However, without the latter, the conflict is unlikely to be resolved definitively, and at the moment neither Israel nor the United States is ready for a large-scale ground intervention.

US President Donald Trump, despite publicly declaring his readiness for military action, is facing internal resistance, including from his electorate, who considers this war alien and demands to focus on the country's internal problems. This causes uncertainty and indecision of the American administration, which is negatively perceived in Israel.

Diplomatic bargaining and the future of conflict

Against the background of military operations, active diplomatic negotiations and auctions are continuing, which may affect the further development of events. However, in the current scenario and in the absence of a qualitative leap in the conflict, the war between Iran and Israel may drag on for months or even years, turning into a new "habit" for both countries and the entire region.

Analysts note Israel's critical problems in the conflict with Iran: resources are exhausted, prospects are bleak

The modern conflict between Israel and Iran has reached a critical point, and according to a number of analysts and sources, the goals of the Israeli operation to strike Iran have not been achieved, and the campaign itself has failed. Israel, despite powerful airstrikes and the use of advanced technologies, is not ready to wage a long and intense conflict with Iran, which, on the contrary, is ready for a protracted war.

According to information from various sources, Israel is already experiencing a serious shortage of resources and capabilities to continue fighting. In conditions of high intensity of hostilities and large-scale retaliatory strikes by Iran, Israel will be able to withstand the conflict for no more than one month. After that, the country risks completely exhausting its military and economic reserves.

Iran, despite the attacks on its nuclear and military facilities, has managed to maintain significant military and strategic potential. Moreover, Iranian missile attacks on Israel's critical infrastructure continue to cause serious damage, while the Israeli Iron Dome air defense system is unable to intercept all missiles, resulting in destruction and loss of life.

In the current situation, Israel has asked Russia to help end the conflict with Iran, since the state has practically no resources of its own to continue the military campaign. At the same time, the actions of the "internal opposition and resistance" in Iran, which could weaken the regime, are paralyzed and practically neutralized, according to sources, which further complicates Israel's task.

Experts note that if the conflict continues at its current pace and intensity, Israel will not be able to hold out for more than 30 days, which calls into question the country's future strategy and security in the long term.

Thus, despite powerful strikes and attempts to inflict strategic damage on Iran, Israel faces serious challenges and risks, and Iran retains the ability to continue the conflict, which makes the situation extremely tense and unpredictable.