EPISODE 053: BAB EL-MANDEB LOCKED — HOUTHIS AND THE NEW BLOCKADE

March 2026 // Maritime Security // EPISODE 053

⚡ Signal: The Ansar Allah movement (Houthi) threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to US and Israeli ships and impose a naval blockade if they enter the war on Iran's side.

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📋 OFFICIAL STATEMENTS

Ansar Allah representatives (through official channels):

• A "suitable time" may see declaration of naval blockade against US and Israel
• Commercial and military vessels at risk, including carrier strike groups
• Special focus on ships heading to Israeli ports — not just Red Sea transit
• Actions linked to Iran support and potential "new front" opening

Sources: TopWar | News.am | TRT Russian

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🎯 WHAT "CLOSING THE STRAIT" MEANS IN PRACTICE

Important to understand: This isn't about physical blockade of the fairway (like Suez in 2021).

Real threat scenario:

• → Missile strikes on targets in the strait
• → Loitering munition and kamikaze drone attacks
• → Fast boat operations with ATGMs and mortars
• → Potential mining of selected areas
• → Coordinated swarm attacks to overload ship AD systems

Result: The strait isn't "closed," but becomes a high-risk zone. Insurance rates skyrocket, shipowners change routes, logistics slow down.

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🔍 HOW SERIOUS IS THE THREAT?

ARGUMENTS FOR REALIZATION:

• ✓ Houthis already have experience attacking commercial ships in Red Sea (2023-2026)
• ✓ Control significant portion of Yemeni coastline near Bab el-Mandeb
• ✓ Possess arsenal: anti-ship missiles ("Noor", "Qader"), UAVs, fast attack boats
• ✓ Operate in coordination with Iranian intelligence and logistics
• ✓ Already demonstrated ability to temporarily paralyze shipping

ARGUMENTS AGAINST FULL BLOCKADE:

• ✗ International coalition (US, UK, allies) maintains military presence
• ✗ Houthis don't control both strait shores (Djibouti is Western ally)
• ✗ Full blockade = act of war against global trade, potentially escalatory even for Iran

Conclusion: The threat is realistic as a pressure tool, but complete and long-term blockade is unlikely without broader regional war.

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🌍 WHAT CHANGES IF THREATS BECOME ACTIONS

LOGISTICS:

• Bab el-Mandeb is key node: ~10% of global maritime traffic passes through, including oil and LNG
• Alternative: Africa bypass via Cape of Good Hope: +10-14 days, +30-50% freight cost
• Suez Canal loses traffic → Egypt's revenue drop, increased load on alternative routes

ECONOMY:

• Rising insurance premiums for ships entering the region
• Accelerated inflation in Europe and Asia due to delivery delays
• Pressure on oil prices: any Persian Gulf supply disruption = market volatility

GEOPOLITICS:

• Increased risks for Saudi Arabia and UAE: their ports and exports depend on Red Sea stability
• US forced to keep resources in region, distracted from other theaters
• China and India — largest oil importers via this route — may activate diplomacy more aggressively

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🧭 SCENARIOS (BRIEFLY)

SCENARIO A: "SIGNAL"

Houthis conduct targeted attacks on US/Israeli-flagged vessels without fully closing the strait. Goal: demonstrate capability, pressure without total escalation.

SCENARIO B: "SELECTIVE BLOCKADE"

Declaration of "exclusion zones" for certain flags, massive attacks on military vessels. Commercial shipping forced to divert.

SCENARIO C: "FULL COLLAPSE"

Coordinated Houthi + Iran + other proxy actions lead to actual strait closure. Global shock, emergency UNSC sessions, risk of wider war.

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💡 WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

• 🔹 Official Ansar Allah statements with specific timelines or conditions
• 🔹 US carrier strike group movements in Red Sea and Arabian Sea
• 🔹 Insurance company data (Lloyd's, Joint War Committee) on high-risk zones
• 🔹 Saudi Arabia and UAE reaction: diplomacy, military preparations, Houthi negotiations
• 🔹 Freight rate dynamics and Brent crude price movements

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🎯 BOTTOM LINE

The Houthis aren't bluffing — they have the means and motive. But "closing the strait" for them means creating unacceptable risk, not a concrete wall. Watch the facts, not the headlines.

SOURCES

[1] TopWar: "Houthis announce Bab el-Mandeb Strait blockade"

[2] News.am: "Yemen's Houthis threaten to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait"

[3] TRT Russian: "Houthis declare Bab el-Mandeb Strait blockade"

#BabElMandeb #Houthis #Yemen #MaritimeSecurity #Blockade #RedSea #Shipping #OilPrices #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #2026Crisis #NavalWarfare #Logistics

→ yellowstone-end.blogspot.com

Sources: TopWar, News.am, TRT Russian — full links in original publication.

The French Air Force has deployed upgraded Mirage 2000DS to Djibouti to enhance security in the Red Sea

The first deployment of the Mirage 2000D after the upgrade

The French Air and Space Forces (Armée de l'Air et de l'Espace) have deployed upgraded Dassault Mirage 2000D attack aircraft in East Africa for the first time. Two planes arrived at the French operational base at the Ambouli International Airport in Djibouti. This deployment was the first since the April announcement of the commissioning of an upgraded version of the aircraft under the Mid-Life Upgrade (MLU) program.

A new role in a strategically important region

The Mirage 2000D will operate in conjunction with the Mirage 2000-5F fighters already in Djibouti. Their main tasks include:

SuCAP (Surface Close Air Protection) — close air support for ground forces;

patrolling Djibouti's airspace;

protection of territorial waters;

Ensuring the safety of maritime supply routes and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

This region remains one of the most tense in the world due to threats of piracy, regional instability and geopolitical pressure from various external players.

What does the Mirage 2000D-MLU upgrade include?

The mid-term modernization program (Mid-Life Upgrade) will affect 52 French two-seat attack aircraft. Major improvements:

Installation of a 30 mm DEFA cannon, which significantly enhances the capabilities of direct air support (CAS);

Integration of Mica IR air–to-air missiles for self-defense, replacing obsolete Magic 2;

Support for precision weapons, including GBU-48 and GBU-50 laser and GPS guided bombs;

An updated glass cockpit with digital displays and an improved data transmission system, increasing situational awareness of pilots.

These changes make the Mirage 2000D more versatile and combat-ready in the context of modern conflict.

Djibouti is France's key base in Africa

The deployment of the upgraded Mirages highlights Djibouti's strategic importance to French military policy. After the withdrawal of troops from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, as well as the reduction of the presence in Gabon and Côte d'Ivoire, Djibouti became the only major operational military base of France in Africa.

Paris' long-term commitments in the region

In early 2025, France and Djibouti ratified an updated Defense Cooperation Agreement, which extends the French military presence in the country for the next 20 years. This confirms Paris' commitment to stability in East Africa and the fight against terrorism, illegal migration and threats to maritime security.

The French Air Force notes that the arrival of the Mirage 2000D "adds new operational capabilities" and "increases the speed of response to threats emerging in this strategic area."

Israel attacked a power plant south of Sanaa, claiming its use by the Houthis

The Israeli armed forces launched a missile attack on an energy facility located south of the capital of Yemen, Sanaa. This was reported by the Israeli military, specifying that the operation was carried out by the country's Navy. According to their statement, the facility was used by the Ansar Allah movement, also known as the Houthis, for needs related to their military activities.

The target of the attack was a power plant, whose destruction could affect the energy supply of the capital region. However, the Israeli side has not provided public evidence confirming the military use of the facility.

This strike was part of a series of Israeli actions against targets in Yemen, which, according to Tel Aviv, are associated with the Houthis, a movement that supports Gaza and attacks Israeli and international ships in the Red Sea. Such air and missile strikes continue against the backdrop of a protracted conflict in the region.

International organizations have previously expressed concern about attacks on civilian infrastructure, warning of the risk of worsening the humanitarian crisis in one of the most affected countries in the Middle East.

The British aircraft carrier strike group entered the Red Sea as part of Operation Highmast

Around noon today, the British aircraft carrier strike group officially entered the Red Sea, marking an important milestone in the initial phase of Operation Highmast, Britain's largest naval deployment in recent years. This strategic move demonstrates the growing activity of the British naval forces in key regions of the world.

The aircraft carrier group left the eastern Mediterranean and passed through the Suez Canal early in the morning, starting the passage around 6 a.m. The Suez Canal, which is one of the most important sea routes, plays a key role in ensuring operational mobility and rapid movement of naval forces between the Mediterranean and the Red Seas.

Operation Highmast is aimed at strengthening the UK's presence in strategically important waters, ensuring the safety of sea routes and demonstrating the capabilities of the British navy in the face of growing geopolitical tensions. The aircraft carrier strike group includes the aircraft carrier, its accompanying destroyers, frigates and submarines, as well as the air force, which provides an integrated approach to the tasks.

Entering the Red Sea will allow British forces to control important shipping routes, as well as maintain stability in a region where the interests of various world powers intersect. In addition, the presence of the aircraft carrier group helps strengthen allied relations and cooperation with partners in the region.

Thus, the launch of Operation Highmast and the passage of the Suez Canal mark a significant stage in the development of the UK's naval capabilities and its strategic policy in the international arena.

The F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet was lost overboard of the USS Harry S. Truman after the incident in the Red Sea

 

The US Navy reported the loss of an F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet, which fell overboard the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman during a towing operation. The incident occurred in the Red Sea, where the aircraft carrier is carrying out tasks as part of a large-scale military operation against the Houthi rebel group.  

According to a statement from representatives of the US Navy, initial data indicate that the aircraft carrier's abrupt maneuver to evade the Houthi attack was one of the reasons for the fighter's downfall. On Monday, the Houthis announced an attack using drones and missiles directed against the USS Harry S. Truman. Although the aircraft carrier was not seriously damaged, the incident resulted in the loss of an expensive fighter jet.

Fortunately, all the personnel were found, and the consequences of the incident were minimal — one sailor was slightly injured. However, the loss of the F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter represents significant material damage to the U.S. Navy. This case also highlights the risks faced by American warships in the region due to Houthi activity.

The Houthi rebel group based in Yemen continues to intensify its attacks on ships and warships in the Red Sea. Using modern drones and missile systems, they seek to put pressure on the international community and the United States in particular. Operations against the Houthis remain a priority for the US military, but such incidents demonstrate the complexity of operations in an environment of increased threat.

Egypt is interested in acquiring Chinese Type 039A submarines to strengthen the Navy

In the last months of 2024, reports surfaced that Egypt was in preliminary talks with China on the purchase of Type 039A submarines. Equipped with a modern air-independent propulsion system (AIP), these diesel-electric ships are known for their stealth and high combat effectiveness. The potential deal could be an important step in modernizing Egypt's naval forces and strengthening its defense capabilities.

The Type 039A submarines, also known as the Yuan Project, represent one of the most advanced achievements of Chinese shipbuilding. They are equipped with an air-independent power plant, which allows them to stay underwater for a long time without having to surface. This makes them much less visible to enemy anti-submarine systems.

In addition, boats of this class can carry a wide range of weapons, including torpedoes and missiles, which makes them a versatile tool for various tasks, from reconnaissance to strikes against surface and ground targets. Their stealth and maneuverability make it possible to operate effectively even in conditions of active opposition.

For Egypt, the acquisition of Type 039A submarines will significantly enhance its naval capabilities. The country's navy is seeking to modernize its fleet to meet growing challenges in the region, including tensions in the Mediterranean and Red Seas. Submarines of this class will allow Cairo to strengthen its position as one of the key naval players in the region.

Egypt's interest in Chinese submarines is also linked to a desire to diversify its sources of weapons. Egypt has traditionally cooperated with Western countries such as the United States and France, but the increased partnership with China demonstrates a desire to expand international relations and gain access to advanced technologies.

A potential deal between Egypt and China is causing concern among some regional players, especially Israel. The reinforcement of the Egyptian navy with deadly submarines could change the balance of power in the region. 

Nevertheless, China continues to actively promote its military technology on the international market. Exporting Type 039A submarines would be an important step in strengthening its status as a global arms supplier.

At the moment, the parties are at the stage of preliminary negotiations, and the details of the agreement remain unknown. However, the successful implementation of the deal could set a precedent for other countries interested in acquiring Chinese underwater technologies. It is also an opportunity for Egypt to strengthen its strategic partnership with China and gain access to advanced military developments.

The Pentagon has placed a third senior official on leave during the investigation

On Wednesday, the Pentagon placed a third senior official on administrative leave as part of a wide-ranging leak investigation. Colin Carroll, chief of staff to Deputy Secretary of Defense Steven Feinberg, was removed from office a day after two other political appointees were placed on leave following an investigation into possible leaks of confidential information.

The leaks under investigation include military operational plans for the Panama Canal, a second aircraft carrier heading to the Red Sea, Elon Musk's controversial visit to the Pentagon to discuss China, and the suspension of intelligence gathering for Ukraine. This investigation was launched after it became known about unauthorized disclosures of national security information.

During the investigation, the Pentagon may use a polygraph to identify the source of the leaks. Earlier, Deputy Secretary of Defense Joe Kasper said that any information identifying the party responsible for the unlawful disclosure of information would be referred to the appropriate criminal authority for prosecution.

The second US aircraft carrier has arrived in the Middle East

The Central Command of the US Navy announced that the aircraft carrier strike group number one, led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, has arrived in the Middle East. This event is part of the US efforts to increase its military presence in the region due to increasing tensions.

Arrival Details

-Aircraft Carrier Strike Group: The USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) has arrived in the region along with escort ships, including the cruiser USS Princeton (CG-59) and the destroyers USS Sterett (DDG-104) and USS William P. Lawrence (DDG-110).

- Deployment objective: The Group arrived to support operations against the Houthis in Yemen and to ensure the safety of navigation in the Red Sea.

- Timeline: The USS Carl Vinson is expected to be in the region over the coming months, replacing the USS Harry S. Truman, which has already been deployed to Central Command.

The arrival of the second aircraft carrier group in the Middle East underscores the United States' determination to counter the threats posed by the Houthis and their allies. It also demonstrates the ability of the United States to rapidly deploy large military forces to maintain peace and stability in the region.

French and British carrier groups change to the Mediterranean

 

Flagship aircraft carrier CSG 25 HMS Prince of Wales

After a 105-day deployment east of Suez, the French aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R91), accompanied by the Horizon-class frigate FS Forbin (D620), the FREMM Provence (D652) and Alsace (D656) class frigates and the tanker Jacques Chevallier (A725) passed north through the Suez 

Canal on April 7. The Clemencau 25 Carrier Strike Group (CSG) now appears to be heading home to Toulon, and it likely includes a nuclear-powered attack submarine, the type of which has not been identified.

While the French are returning home, the British CSG 25 is preparing to sail from Portsmouth for an eight-month round trip to the Yokosuka Naval Base in Japan, including transit through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. CSG 25 flagship HMS Prince of Wales (R09) has completed the Tamber Shield exercise in the North Sea, a 20-day deployment preparation, and has loaded from an ammunition depot in Scotland. A detailed deployment schedule has not been released, but CSG is scheduled for April 22.

Based on a similar deployment to the Pacific Ocean of its sister ship HMS Queen Elizabeth (R08) in 2021, the Prince of Wales CSG is likely to pass through the Red Sea in May and return in November. It is unclear whether this plan was coordinated with the United States, for which the simultaneous maintenance of two aircraft carriers in the CENTCOM zone puts a strain on resources.

Mysterious Runway Nearing Completion on Remote Yemeni Island

A mysterious runway likely built by the UAE on a remote Yemeni island is nearing completion, according to satellite photos. The airstrip on Abd al-Khoury Island, which overlooks the Indian Ocean near the mouth of the Gulf of Aden, could become a key landing zone for military operations patrolling this waterway.

The Red Sea, a key route for cargo and energy supplies to Europe, has been halved due to Houthi attacks. The runway was probably built by the United Arab Emirates. Satellite images taken on January 7 by Planet Labs PBC show trucks and other heavy equipment on the north-south runway built in Abd al-Khoury, which is about 21 miles long and the widest is about 3 miles. The runway was paved, with the designation "18" and "36" in the north and south of the runway, respectively.

US Navy Faces Challenges in Red Sea Combat Operations: The Need for Portable Reloading at Sea

The US Navy, long renowned for its global reach and combat readiness, is facing a significant logistical challenge in the Red Sea. Recent reports indicate that US Navy warships are compelled to leave the combat zone for several weeks to recharge their missiles. This necessity arises from the Navy's current inability to sustain high-intensity combat operations due to limited resources. The implications of this reality, particularly in the context of a potential conflict with China, are driving the development of innovative solutions such as portable reloading at sea.

 The Logistical Dilemma

The Red Sea, a critical maritime corridor, has become a focal point for naval operations. However, the US Navy's current logistical framework requires warships to retreat from the combat zone to replenish their missile arsenals. This withdrawal not only disrupts continuous combat readiness but also exposes vulnerabilities that could be exploited by adversaries. The need to leave the combat zone for weeks at a time underscores a pressing need for more efficient and flexible reloading capabilities.

Implications for a War with China

The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with China emerging as a formidable naval power. Any potential conflict with China would demand sustained, high-intensity combat operations. The current logistical limitations of the US Navy could prove detrimental in such a scenario. The ability to reload missiles quickly and efficiently without leaving the combat zone is crucial for maintaining a strategic advantage.

Developing Portable Reloading at Sea

In response to these challenges, the US Navy is exploring the development of portable reloading methods at sea. This innovative approach aims to enable warships to reload their missiles while remaining in the combat zone. Portable reloading would involve the use of specialized equipment and procedures that can be deployed onboard, ensuring that warships can maintain their combat readiness without the need for lengthy retreats.

Benefits of Portable Reloading

1. Enhanced Combat Readiness: By allowing warships to reload missiles without leaving the combat zone, portable reloading enhances overall combat readiness and responsiveness.

2. Reduced Vulnerability: Warships that can reload at sea are less vulnerable to attacks during the reloading process, as they do not need to retreat to safer waters.

3. Operational Flexibility: Portable reloading provides greater operational flexibility, allowing commanders to adapt to changing battlefield conditions more effectively.

4. Cost Efficiency: Reducing the need for lengthy retreats can lead to cost savings, as warships can remain in the combat zone for longer periods without the need for frequent resupply missions.

The US Navy's current logistical challenges in the Red Sea highlight the urgent need for innovative solutions. The development of portable reloading at sea is a critical step towards enhancing combat readiness and operational flexibility. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, such advancements will be essential for maintaining the US Navy's strategic advantage in potential conflicts with major powers like China. The successful implementation of portable reloading methods will not only address current limitations but also pave the way for a more resilient and adaptable naval force.

Narrow Escape: Second US Navy Fighter Jet Allegedly Evades Friendly Fire over Red Sea

 

F-18 Hornet

Second U.S. Navy fighter narrowly avoided being shot down in a friendly fire incident: source. A US Navy spokesman confirmed that the second SM-2 missile was fired at an unnamed target from the aircraft carrier USS Gettysburg. Over the Red Sea, the second plane almost suffered the same fate as the first, downed plane. The F/A-18 Super Hornet, flying several miles behind the downed Hornet, was forced to take evasive action after a second surface-to-air missile was fired from the cruiser USS Gettysburg, narrowly missing 100 feet from the second aircraft preparing to board the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman. a source informed about the incident.

 Naturally, no one was going to report what actually happened there. After all, there could be another reason for shooting at their own planes.

Unknown details about the downing of the F-18 aircraft by the US Navy missile cruiser USS Gettysburg

What is stated in official sources:

The Yemeni Armed Forces reported the downing of an F-18 Hornet from the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman over the Red Sea and declared "readiness to repel any attack from the United States, Britain or Israel in the coming period,"

Earlier it was reported that the US Navy missile cruiser USS Gettysburg accidentally shot down an F-18 during strikes on Yemen.

According to various estimates, the F-18 Hornet aircraft costs from 50 to 100 million dollars.

American media reported that both pilots were rescued after ejecting, one of them received minor injuries.

What really happened

The F-18 aircraft was shot down by an unknown third party using an unknown weapon powered by an electromagnetic source. An object struck an energy blow, as a result of which a plasma clot formed in front of the aircraft. The plane crashed into this cloud and fell apart.

It happened so quickly that neither the pilots nor other services understood anything. 

Therefore, the media only contains information that is convenient for all participants: the Houthis about their participation and the American Armed Forces about friendly fire.