EPISODE 010: THE TOMAHAWK THRESHOLD — AMERICA'S CALCULATED GAMBLE IN THE SHADOW OF MOSCOW

Washington, October 2025

In the hushed corridors of the White House, where decisions echo louder than artillery, President Donald Trump has drawn a line—not in the sand, but in the flight path of a missile. On October 6, he declared that the decision to arm Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles is "almost made." But this is no mere arms transfer. It is a geopolitical detonator wrapped in diplomatic caution tape.

"I want to know what they'll do with them. Where they'll send them," Trump said.

"I'm not looking for escalation."

Yet, in the calculus of modern warfare, intent matters less than capability. And Tomahawk—1,250 to 2,500 kilometers of subsonic precision—does not whisper. It announces.

Sources

1. Fontanka.ru — Trump: “Decision on Tomahawks almost made”
2. RTVI.com — Trump awaits usage guarantees before approving Tomahawks
3. RIA Novosti / Tatar-Inform — Decision imminent, conditions of use specified
4. Voennoe Delo — Strategic value of Tomahawk & Russian reaction
5. RBC — Overview of missile significance & Kremlin response
6. Deutsche Welle — Conditions & ongoing discussions on supply

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1. The Weapon That Redraws the Map

Tomahawk is not just a missile. It is a strategic eraser.

• Designed in the 1970s, it was never meant for proxy wars on Europe's eastern flank.
• It flies low, hugs terrain, evades radar—and can strike Moscow from Kyiv.
• It carries conventional or nuclear payloads. In this context, even the non-nuclear variant carries nuclear-level implications.

For Ukraine, Tomahawk would be more than firepower—it would be deterrence by reach. A single salvo could hit deep into Russia's military-industrial heartland: Voronezh, Samara, even the outskirts of the capital. Targets once deemed untouchable would fall within the kill chain of a Ukrainian launch command.

But here's the paradox: Tomahawk's greatest power lies not in its warhead, but in its message.

🎯 TOMAHAWK RANGE FROM UKRAINE 🚀

Kyiv

Moscow

Voronezh

Warsaw

1,250 km | 2,500 km | Strategic Depth

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2. The Theater of Controlled Escalation

Trump's hesitation is not weakness—it is calibrated brinkmanship.

He knows that every Tomahawk launched from Ukrainian soil will be read in Moscow as an American shot. Vladimir Putin has already warned: such a move would "destroy" U.S.-Russia relations. Not strain. Not damage. Destroy.

And yet, Trump teeters on the edge—not to provoke, but to leverage.

• He offers the weapon, but demands guarantees.
• He opens the door, but keeps his hand on the knob.
• He signals resolve to Kyiv, while whispering restraint to the Kremlin.

This is deterrence theater: a performance where the audience includes not just Putin, but NATO allies, the American electorate, and history itself.

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3. The Illusion of Control

But can control be maintained once the missiles leave the silo?

U.S. officials admit they fear loss of oversight—especially if Tomahawks are sold to NATO allies who then transfer them to Ukraine, as Zelenskyy reportedly proposed during their UN meeting. The chain of custody becomes a legal fiction. The accountability, blurred.

And Russia will not care about paperwork.

Putin has already declared that operating Tomahawk requires U.S. personnel involvement—a claim likely exaggerated, but strategically potent. If Moscow believes American officers are in the loop, then every strike becomes a de facto act of war by the United States.

Even if false, the perception is enough.

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4. The Ghost of Biden's Restraint

This moment marks a sharp break from the past.

Joe Biden refused Tomahawk transfers, fearing the red line would ignite. Trump, ever the disruptor, sees that line not as a barrier—but as a bargaining chip.

His logic is cold and transactional:

"Give them the missile. Make them promise not to use it recklessly. Then watch Putin flinch."

But warfare rarely obeys promises. And once the threshold is crossed, there is no recall.

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5. What Comes Next?

Expect one of three outcomes:

1. Conditional Transfer: A limited batch of Tomahawks arrives—with GPS locks, usage logs, and real-time U.S. monitoring. A high-tech leash on a long-range wolf.
2. Strategic Bluff: The "almost decided" rhetoric is theater—a pressure tactic to force Russia to negotiate, without ever shipping a single missile.
3. Point of No Return: Missiles are delivered. Ukraine tests the range. Russia responds—not with words, but with escalation of its own. The spiral begins.

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Conclusion: The Missile That Carries a Question

Tomahawk does not just carry explosives. It carries a question:

Are we still in a proxy war—or have we crossed into shared combat?

Trump's "almost" is the last breath before the plunge. He wants guarantees, but guarantees cannot bind chaos. He seeks to avoid escalation, yet hands Ukraine the very tool that guarantees it.

In the new era of hybrid warfare, altitude doesn't matter.

What matters is who controls the arc of escalation.

And right now, that arc is aimed—not at a radar site or an airfield—but at the fragile membrane separating proxy conflict from great-power war.

America has loaded the missile.

Now, the world holds its breath—waiting to see who presses "launch."

Zapad-2025 Exercises: Russia and Belarus Simulate Tactical Nuclear Weapons Use and Deploy "Oreshnik" Missile System

As part of the Russian-Belarusian strategic exercises Zapad-2025, which took place from September 12 to 16, 2025, units of the Armed Forces of Russia and Belarus worked out key elements of joint defense, including planning the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons and the practical deployment of the Oreshnik mobile missile system. This was officially announced by the Chief of the General Staff, First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus, General Pavel Muraveyko.

According to the reports of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus and other reliable sources, the following important areas were implemented during the exercises:

1. Planning for the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons  

   The participants of the exercise conducted command and staff training on planning and reviewing the conditions for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in response to hypothetical aggression. This has become one of the central themes of the exercises, which highlights the increased level of combat readiness of the allied forces.

2. Deployment and evaluation of the Oreshnik complex  

   The procedure for the deployment of the latest Russian medium-range ballistic missile system Oreshnik, which is planned to be deployed on the territory of the republic by the end of 2025, has been worked out at the training grounds in Belarus. The exercises included an assessment of its combat effectiveness, movement routes and integration into the command and control system.

3. The use of unmanned systems  

   Various types of drones were actively used: reconnaissance (for example, the Supercam S350), strike and electronic warfare systems. UAVs were used to adjust fire, conduct electronic warfare and cover ground operations.

4. Tactical actions in difficult terrain  

   Modern forms of combat were practiced in:

- urbanized buildings,

   - wooded and swampy area,

   - conditions of hybrid warfare.

   Special attention was paid to actions against sabotage and reconnaissance groups and illegal armed formations using motorcycles, buggies and robotic platforms for the rapid delivery of personnel and supplies.

5. Countering enemy aircraft and artillery  

   The air defense forces of Belarus successfully hit all the air targets. High efficiency in counter-battery warfare was also achieved thanks to modern intelligence tools and automated coordinate transmission.

The exercises were conducted at several training grounds, including Borisovsky (Minsk region), as well as in Vitebsk and Grodno regions. Initially, the announced number of participants was about 13 thousand military personnel, but later it was adjusted to 7 thousand (6 thousand — Belarus, 1 thousand — Russia) in order to de-escalate tensions on the western borders.

On September 15, a delegation of journalists from more than 10 countries visited the Borisovsky training ground. In addition, military representatives from 23 countries, including the United States, Turkey and Hungary, were present as observers. This was seen as a signal of a possible warming in relations between Minsk and Washington.

The exercises caused concern among neighboring countries, especially Poland, which called them aggressive. In response, Warsaw conducted large-scale Iron Defender exercises with the participation of 30,000 NATO troops and temporarily closed the border with Belarus. Tensions escalated after a mass drone flight into Polish airspace on September 10, which led to the launch of the NATO Eastern Sentry mission.

As General Muraveiko stated, all the tasks have been completed. The exercises allowed:

- gain invaluable experience in interacting with Russian troops,

- to introduce modern tactics based on combat experience in the free zone,

- to increase the level of personnel training and technical equipment.

"We have received good tactical, operational and field training. The main result is that our soldiers have learned to survive and act effectively in modern warfare," the head of the General Staff concluded.

Thus, Zapad-2025 became not only the largest joint maneuvers of Russia and Belarus in recent years, but also a demonstration of the Union State's readiness to use the most modern and powerful types of weapons, including non-strategic nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik missile system.

Sources

1. URA.ru — Oreshnik complex deployment & nuclear-employment drill
2. Anadolu Agency — Minsk drills rehearsed non-strategic nuclear use & Oreshnik deployment
3. Kommersant — Zapad-2025 review: Oreshnik fielding & exercise scenario
4. Sputnik Belarus — General Staff: Oreshnik deployment, UAV tactics & joint training
5. BelTA — Belarus MoD final report on Zapad-2025 objectives
6. Rossiyskaya Gazeta — Belarus MoD: all Zapad-2025 tasks completed
7. Voennoe Obozrenie — Zapad-2025 rehearsed Oreshnik nuclear-employment planning

Poland has received 38 more Abrams tanks — there will be more than three hundred of them

The third batch has arrived — what's in the delivery

The Polish Armaments Agency has confirmed the arrival of the third batch of American M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams tanks. This time, 38 cars were delivered to the country. They will complement the 47 tanks already delivered earlier in 2025. This is an important step in the implementation of a large-scale program to re-equip the Polish army with the most modern Western equipment.

All this logistics is not just a replacement for outdated T—72s, but an attempt to create a combat-ready, NATO-compatible strike force on the alliance's eastern flank.

Not only tanks, but also M88A2 orderlies

The supply includes not only combat vehicles. Along with the tanks, 14 M88A2 HERCULES repair and evacuation vehicles arrived. These heavy vehicles are indispensable on the battlefield.: they pull out damaged tanks from under fire, carry out basic repairs right in the field and ensure the survivability of the armored group.

Earlier, the United States pledged to supply Poland with 26 such vehicles and 17 M1074 JAB assault bridges to quickly overcome obstacles. Deliveries will continue until the end of 2026.

The largest Abrams fleet outside the United States

The total number of Abrams tanks at Poland's disposal will soon reach 366 units. Of these:

• 250 — new M1A2 SEPv3 (under contract dated April 2022)
• 116 — used M1A1FEP, already delivered by 2024

This will be supplemented by 25 M1150 ABV engineering vehicles, the order for which was expanded in July 2025. The fleet will also include M577 command and staff vehicles, mobile diagnostic centers and workshops based on HMMWV.

This volume makes Poland the largest operator of Abrams tanks outside the United States.

How does this change the balance of power in Eastern Europe

SEPv3 tanks are among the most advanced in the world: digital architecture, active protection, powerful weapons, excellent armor. Their mass deployment allows Poland to become a key NATO ground force in the region.

It's not just defense. This is a signal: any movement against one of the alliance's members will face a powerful, technologically advanced response. And now he will ride on tracks.

Sources

1. Sovross.ru — Polish Armed Forces confirm receipt & modernisation plans
2. TSAMTO — Contract details & logistics of tanks and support vehicles
3. RIA Novosti — Third batch of M1A2 SEPv3 tanks and support machines delivered
4. Overclockers.ru — Large batch of U.S. M1A2 Abrams tanks supplied to Poland

Drones over Poland: who attacked and why — the split in NATO after the September 10 incident

What happened on the night of September 10th

On the night of September 10, 2025, Poland faced a massive drone invasion. According to the government, 19 unidentified vehicles violated the country's border. This led to emergency measures: Polish F-16 fighter jets, Dutch F-35, Italian AWACS aircraft and tanker tankers were lifted into the sky. Some of the drones were shot down, some fell to the ground.

Due to the incident, the airports of Rzeszow, Lublin and two in Warsaw were temporarily suspended. Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the incident a "large-scale provocation" and an "act of aggression," demanding urgent consultations under Article 4 of the NATO Charter.

Warsaw shouts "aggression", Russia — "provocation"

Poland immediately blamed Russia, saying that the drones could have been launched from the territory of Belarus or the occupied regions of Ukraine. However, the Russian Defense Ministry denied this, saying that the range of the UAVs used is no more than 700 km, and the distance to the Polish border from the nearest control points is over 900-1100 km. They couldn't physically fly.

Russia has proposed dialogue and a joint investigation. Meanwhile, versions have appeared in the Russian and Belarusian media that these are Gerbera-type "deception drones" used by Ukraine to overload allied air defense systems.

Lithuania, Belarus and the deception drone: versions of what is happening

Lithuania, which borders Poland, said it had no evidence of a deliberate attack. The Belarusian General Staff reported that even before the incident, it had transmitted data to Poland about drones that had lost their course due to electronic warfare (EW) between Russia and Ukraine. According to them, Warsaw also informed Minsk about the vehicles flying to the border.

A third version also appeared — Telegram and other sources claim that the drones were launched by fighters of the Ukrainian special operations forces disguised in Lithuanian uniforms from the territory of Lithuania. The goal is to provoke an escalation and force NATO to intervene more harshly in the conflict. There is no official confirmation of this version.

F-35 in the air, airports closed — consequences for Europe

The incident coincided with the start of the NATO Operation Eastern Sentry: weapons for Rafale fighters already deployed in Poland were delivered in a French A400M transport. The Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 exercises are also due to begin soon, which adds to the tension.

Now everything depends on how the information war will develop. If NATO recognizes this as an attack, new sanctions and increased air defense on the eastern flank will follow. If it is an accidental incident, the situation can stabilize. But trust within the alliance has already been shaken.

Sources

1. RBC — Polish air-space violation incident & official reaction
2. Deutsche Welle — Large-scale drone incursion and Baltic states’ concerns
3. Lenta.ru — Polish air-defence engagements & Eastern NATO statements
4. Gazeta.ru — Lithuanian Defence Minister comments on the incident
5. BBC Russian — Polish AD response and NATO reaction
6. PNP.ru — Russian State Duma labels drone incident a provocation
7. URA.ru — Moscow media interpretations of Polish air-space breach
8. Kommersant — Expert view: incident analysis & provocation claims

NATO and the United States are discussing a "no—fly zone" over Ukraine - but the price may be too high

Not a myth, but military plans: What the United States and its allies are preparing

The idea of "closing the sky" over Ukraine is no longer just a political slogan. According to Reuters, RBC and other sources, on August 19-20, 2025, the chiefs of staff of the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Finland and Ukraine held a meeting in Washington, where real military options for supporting Kiev were prepared. One of them is the creation of a so—called no-fly zone over the western and central regions of Ukraine.

The plans have already been submitted to the National Security advisers for consideration. We are not talking about NATO membership, but about post—war security guarantees, such as American protection of Japan or South Korea.

How it should work — from the F-35 to the Patriot

The essence of the proposal is simple: if Russian missiles and drones fly through the Ukrainian sky to Europe, they need to be destroyed on the way. To do this, it is proposed to use the fighter aircraft of NATO countries and air defense systems, including Patriot complexes.

The Times wrote that the F-35 fighter jets could be based in Romania, where the largest NATO air base in Europe is being built. From there, they will be able to patrol the border and, if necessary, enter Ukrainian airspace.

There is also a large-scale Sky Shield project: 120 European fighter jets could replace tens of thousands of soldiers on the ground and provide solid cover.

Buffer zone or provocation? Why doesn't anyone decide

But the main problem is not technology or money. This is a risk of a direct clash with Russia. If a NATO plane shoots down a Russian missile over Ukraine, Moscow will regard it as an act of war. And if he hits the fighter back, it's already World War III.

That is why no one is officially talking about a "no-fly zone." The United States says its role will be minimal. Europe does not want to take on the entire burden. Ukraine, of course, is asking, but it understands that it will not have to pay.

In addition, a milder option is being discussed — a 40-kilometer buffer zone between the fronts. It should be demilitarized, with the participation of peacekeepers. But even here it is unclear who will lead these forces and whether the Kremlin will agree to this.

Ukraine is asking, Russia is threatening — who will scare whom first

Against the background of these discussions, an incident occurred in Poland: on the night of September 10, several drones allegedly crossed the border. They raised the F-16, F-35, AWACS. Airports have been closed. Prime Minister Tusk called it "unprecedented" and blamed Russia. Moscow has declared that our UAVs cannot reach Poland.

This shows that even an accidental flight can become a spark. And an attempt to close the skies over Ukraine is not just an operation. This is a Russian roulette game with global stakes.

Sources

1. Vz.ru — U.S. “no-fly zone” options over Ukraine analysed
2. Lenta.ru — Washington debates closing Ukrainian air-space
3. The Moscow Times — Reuters: U.S. may enforce no-fly zone as security guarantee to Kyiv
4. RBC — Secret U.S./European “no-fly” plans for Ukraine emerge
5. MK — Bespoletnaya zona: U.S. & Europe prepare classified Ukraine air scheme
6. DW — Europe mulls 40-km buffer zone inside Ukraine

Romania is quietly becoming Europe's arms factory — drones, gunpowder and tanks are being built

Brasov as a new center of defense production

Where Soviet workshops used to be, modern factories are now growing. Romania has launched a large-scale revival of its defense industry, and the city of Brasov has become the main testing ground. It is here that new facilities are being built to produce drones, explosives and gunpowder, all of which became scarce after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

This is not just an upgrade. This is a restart of the entire system.

Drones, gunpowder, armor — what are they doing in new factories

Next up are three key areas:

• Drones — together with American partners, the production of tactical and attack drones is developing. The goal is not only to supply your army, but also to export.
• Gunpowder and explosives — production lines for ammunition components are being launched. This is critically important, because without a stable supply, artillery gets stuck.
• Tanks and armored vehicles — production and repair of equipment is expanding, including Leopard 2 and other NATO platforms.

All this makes Romania not just a consumer of weapons, but a producer of them.

Americans and Germans are helping to restart the industry

Help is coming from the USA and Germany. American companies participate in the creation of technological chains, supply licenses and equipment. The Germans help with engineering and quality standards. This is not a charity, but a strategic investment in a reliable rear in eastern Europe.

For Washington and Berlin, it is important that someone can quickly do what the front needs, without depending on long-range supplies.

Why Romania is the key to NATO's eastern flank

The geography speaks for itself: Romania is the only NATO country with access to the Black Sea, bordering Moldova and next to Ukraine. The main logistics routes run through it. Now it becomes not only a corridor, but also a source.

If ammunition or drones run out somewhere in the region, they can be set up right in Brasov. This changes everything from reaction time to strategic resilience.

Sources

1. Rambler News — Serial drone & munition production to start by end-2025
2. 1Prime — Rheinmetall powder plant in Romania & Romarm cooperation
3. Avia.pro — German-backed Romanian ammunition production plans
4. Ponomaroleg.com — Romania as new NATO hub & defence giant

NATO shoots down drones for 2.8 million, 280 times more expensive than the drone itself

Drone for 10 thousand — rocket for 2.8 million

The recent incident over Poland has revealed a serious gap in NATO's defenses. According to The Guardian, Dutch F-35 fighter jets tried to intercept several "lost" Gerber-type drones. The problem is in one figure: one AIM-9X missile costs about $2.8 million. And the drone itself is about 10 thousand. That is, in one shot, as much is lost as is enough for 280 such drones.

It's like shooting sparrows with a cannon and missing.

The F-35 fired at the Gerberas and almost missed

Of the 20 drones trapped in Polish airspace, only 3-4 were shot down. The rest either fell on their own or went back. At the same time, fifth—generation fighters were used - the most expensive and technologically advanced machines in the NATO arsenal.

The fact that even the F-35 with high-precision missiles could not cope with the massive threat raises questions. Not because the pilots are bad, but because the system is not designed for such tasks.

Why is this a problem for the entire alliance

Now we are talking about random drones. But imagine if someone intentionally launches hundreds of cheap UAVs with explosives simulators or just to distract themselves. Every rocket launch is a huge expense. After a dozen such attacks, the air defense budget simply cannot stand it.

NATO is spending billions on technology, but has not yet solved the main issue: how to destroy cheap targets cheaply.

What should I do if the enemy throws cheap drones?

There is a way out. These are lasers, electromagnetic suppression, robotic guns like Phalanx, radio-controlled nets, and drone catchers. Or at least cheaper rockets and machine guns. The main thing is not to respond with a price 280 times more.

In the meantime, each such case reminds us that modern warfare requires not only powerful weapons, but also a reasonable economy.

Sources

1. EADaily — NATO F-35s shot down Gerbera drones over Poland with AIM-9X missiles: $10 k UAV vs $2.8 M missile, 280:1 cost ratio, low kill rate raises NATO strategy questions
2. United24Media — Dutch F-35s use AIM-9X to down Russian Gerbera drones above Poland; drone cost $10 k, missile $2.8 M
3. Alexander Anderson on X — Quick note on AIM-9X vs Gerbera drone cost ratio
4. Wikipedia — AIM-9X Sidewinder: unit cost ≈ $2.8 M, performance & operational use

Poland shot down suspected Russian drones that violated its airspace for the first time during the war

Four drones shot down, others lost — Air defense on alert

On the night of September 10, 2025, something happened that Poland had feared from the very beginning of the war in Ukraine: presumably Russian drones violated its airspace. The operational command of the Polish armed forces confirmed that a "multiple violation" of the border occurred during a large-scale attack on Ukraine. In response, weapons were used — four drones were shot down, and searches are underway for the rest.

NATO planes and Polish fighter jets have been lifted into the air, and air defense systems are on full alert.

Tusk has called an emergency meeting, and reservists are being mobilized

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk immediately called an emergency government meeting. In his Twitter account, he confirmed: "An operation is underway involving multiple violations of Polish airspace. Weapons were used against the objects." He is in constant contact with the President, the Minister of Defense and the Secretary General of NATO.

In addition, the Ministry of Defense announced an urgent gathering of reservists. This means that the country is moving to an increased level of defense — not only symbolic, but also practical.

Four airports have been closed, and NATO has activated cover

Due to military activity, four key airports are temporarily closed: Warsaw-Chopin, Warsaw-Modlin, Reshov-Jasionka and Lublin. This decision was recorded in the FAA notifications, although the Polish authorities did not comment on it directly.

Polish and allied NATO planes patrol the skies. Ground-based radars and air defense systems are operating in an enhanced mode. Kiev previously reported that drones were flying towards the city of Rzeszow, but later deleted this statement from Telegram.

This is not an incident, but a signal: the border is no longer calm

For the first time, Poland has officially used weapons against Russian drones on its territory. This is not just a technical violation, it is an event with political overtones. The army called the actions an "act of aggression" rather than an accidental demolition.

Against the background of the upcoming Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 exercises, Poland has already announced the closure of the border with Belarus. Minsk called this an "abuse of geographical location."

It's clear now: Ukraine is not the only one who lives on the front line.

Sources

1. Anadolu Ajansı — Poland downs Russian drones that violated its airspace during strikes on Ukraine
2. CNN — Poland scrambles jets, closes Warsaw airport after reports of Russian drones
3. Al Jazeera — Poland downs drones during airspace intrusion as Russia strikes Ukraine
4. Sky News — Poland scrambles NATO defences after Russian drones repeatedly violated airspace
5. Reuters — Poland shoots down drones in its airspace during Russian attack on Ukraine
6. Economic Times — Live updates: Poland downs Russian drones over NATO airspace
7. APA — Polish PM holds emergency meeting on airspace violation

The Australians showed the Apollo laser, which destroys 50 drones per minute and costs pennies per shot

Laser in a container — mobility as an advantage

The Australian company Electro Optic Systems (EOS) has revealed details of its Apollo laser weapon for the first time before the DSEI exhibition in London. The system is packaged in a standard 20-foot ISO container, the same one that is carried on trucks and ships. This means that you have delivered it, connected it, and you are already protecting the object. This mobility is a huge plus for the army, where it takes every hour to deploy.

The Apollo is not a huge installation at the base, but a weapon that can be quickly deployed to where drones have become a threat.

150 kW per target: how it shoots down drones

The laser power is 150 kilowatts. This is enough to burn through the drone's body in a few seconds, disable the electronics or set the engine on fire. The system works on the principle of a "point strike": it focuses on the vulnerable part — most often on the propellers or the battery.

EOS claims that the installation is capable of hitting up to 50 drones per minute. This does not mean that she shoots 50 times — she switches between targets, quickly and accurately, as the beam burns through one, and immediately moves on to the next.

Why is it the "cheapest weapon"

One of the main advantages of a laser is the cost of a shot. A rocket or a bullet costs hundreds or thousands of dollars. And a laser is electricity. One "shot" costs a few cents. Even if you shoot down 100 drones in a row, the costs will be several times lower than from a single rocket launch.

In an environment where enemies are attacking with swarms of cheap drones, this is what makes the laser strategically advantageous. It's not just a weapon — it's the economics of war.

The first deal with NATO is not just a show—off

In August, EOS signed the world's first export contract for the supply of 100 kW class laser weapons with one of the NATO countries. This is not a demonstration, but a real purchase. This means that the system has been tested for combat capability, reliability and compatibility with army standards.

Entering the NATO market is a major breakthrough for the Australian company and for the entire directed energy industry. Now lasers are no longer the "technology of the future" — they are already here.

Sources

1. Focus.ua — Apollo laser weapon vs. drone swarms
2. Building-Tech.org — EOS 100 kW next-gen combat laser for drone defence
3. Armiya.az — EOS exports laser weapon to European NATO member

Rheinmetall has revealed a new Skyranger 35 anti—aircraft tank - it will go to DSEI-2025

Not just an upgrade, but a serious leap in power

On September 4, Rheinmetall released a video showing a new version of its mobile anti—aircraft system, the Skyranger 35 (SR35), based on the KF41 Lynx combat vehicle. In a few days, from September 9th to 12th, the system will be presented at the DSEI 2025 international exhibition in London. This is not just a demonstration, but a signal to the NATO countries: we have a ready—made solution against drones, helicopters and tactical missiles.

And most importantly, it is already working on a tracked platform, which means it is keeping pace with the tanks.

Tracks, 35mm cannon, and next-level electronics

The Skyranger 35 is not just a turret with a cannon. This is a whole air defense unit on wheels (or tracks). The base is a 35mm automatic cannon capable of firing smart rounds AHEAD. They explode in front of the target, creating a cloud of damaging elements — ideal against drones and missiles.

Added to this are radar, IR sensors, laser targeting and a powerful fire control system. All this works in automatic mode: detected, identified, opened fire — in seconds.

Now the system is based on the KF41 Lynx tracked platform, which means it will not lag behind tanks in the mud, on slopes and under fire.

Why is NATO interested in this

The situation on the fronts in recent years has shown that the main threat is not fighters, but drones. Cheap, numerous, maneuverable. The old anti-aircraft guns can't handle it. And the Skyranger 35 is just what you need to cover columns, rear bases and forward positions.

Rheinmetall says bluntly: the system is becoming increasingly important for the collective defense of NATO. And these are not empty words. The alliance countries are already looking for mobile, fast and accurate solutions — and Skyranger suits them.

From tank to tower — how to put on different platforms

Interestingly, Skyranger can be installed not only on Lynx. Earlier, at Eurosatory 2024, Rheinmetall showed the same tower on the body of the old Leopard 2A4. That is, the idea is modular: there is one tower, and any platform. Even tracked, even wheeled.

This reduces cost and simplifies logistics. One complex is used for different needs. And quickly.

Sources

1. Building-Tech.org — Skyranger 35 high-precision mobile air-defence system with AI control
2. Overclockers.ru — Rheinmetall unveils Lynx Skyranger 35 air-defence system on Lynx KF41 IFV chassis
3. Invoen.ru — new KF41 Lynx IFV evaluated by Chinese specialists
4. Wikipedia — Lynx (IFV) overview

Britain will be the first in the world to purchase ultra-long-range artillery shells with a jet engine

Tiberius Aerospace and the artillery revolution

Tiberius Aerospace has announced a contract with the UK Department of Defense for the development and testing of its new Sceptre artillery shell. This makes Britain the first customer of the technology, which the company calls "revolutionary." The projectile, officially designated as TRBM 155HG, is capable of flying faster than sound, rising above 20 km and hitting targets at a distance of up to 150 km.

And this is not fiction — these are already real tests, which are supervised even by the US Department of Defense Innovation.

Sceptre is not just a projectile, but a flying rocket

An ordinary 155-mm projectile flies along a ballistic trajectory — it's fired, and then it just falls. Sceptre works differently. After firing a standard cannon, it turns on a liquid-propellant ramjet engine (RAMJET), which accelerates it to Mach 3.5 and allows it to fly at almost space altitude — more than 20,000 meters.

Such a flight gives a huge advantage: less air resistance, longer range and, most importantly, the ability to adjust the trajectory in flight. Even with weak GPS, the system maintains accuracy of less than 5 meters (circular probable deviation).

Why did the UK become the first

Britain is actively investing in technologies that provide an advantage on the battlefield without increasing the number of troops. The Sceptre fits perfectly into this strategy: it is compatible with all major 155 mm NATO systems, from the AS-90 to the self—propelled "Large" ones.

By becoming a launch customer, the UK gets access to cutting-edge development ahead of others. This will not only strengthen her army, but also increase her influence in the alliance. Even the American DIU oversees testing and validation — a sign that the technology is serious.

How RAMJET engine changes the rules of the game

A ramjet engine is not just an accelerator. It allows the projectile to maneuver, avoid interference and choose the optimal trajectory. In an environment where the enemy is jamming GPS, this is critical.

Artillery can now hit targets that were previously out of reach. This means that there is less risk for your own, faster reactions and more chances to win in a fire duel. This is not modernization, it is a paradigm shift.

Sources

1. Tiberius Aerospace — official press releases
2. Tiberius Aerospace — project Sceptre page
3. TechCult — Sceptre functionality & trials overview
4. HighTech Plus — ramjet technology & NATO artillery potential
5. Overclockers.ru — UK artillery round with ramjet, rocket-like range
6. Podolyaka.ru — TRBM-155HG Sceptre tech details & trials
7. Ryb.ru — ramjet engine advantages & projectile specs

The first CV90 infantry fighting vehicle for the Czech Army rolled off the assembly line in Sweden

Laying the foundation stone of the first CV90 infantry fighting vehicle for the Czech Army

The first CV90 infantry fighting vehicle (BMP) designed for the Czech Armed Forces rolled off the assembly line at the BAE Systems Hägglunds plant in Ernskoldsvik, Sweden. The official presentation of the car took place in the presence of Czech Defense Minister Jana Chernokhova and Swedish Defense Minister Paul Johnson.

The CV9030CZ Mk model.The IV is one of the latest modifications of the CV90 family, widely used by NATO allies. The infantry fighting vehicle is equipped with modern means of protection, firepower and high mobility, which will allow the Czech Republic to upgrade outdated Soviet equipment and significantly strengthen national defense.

The acquisition of the CV90 is in line with the Czech Republic's objectives of modernizing the army and fulfilling its obligations under the NATO alliance. It is planned to start deliveries from the batch in 2026, followed by an expansion of the fleet of vehicles until 2030, which will significantly increase combat effectiveness and interoperability with allies.

Russia was going to join NATO in 1994. And the United States was ready to accept it. But Germany got in the way

Der Spiegel has found new documents shedding light on the origins of Moscow's conflict with the West.       

In the early 1990s, the administration of US President Bill Clinton seriously considered the possibility of Russia joining NATO. The main obstacle turned out to be the German government, headed by Chancellor Helmut Kohl. The German magazine Der Spiegel studied previously confidential documents from the publications of the Institute of Modern History, as well as from the personal archive of one of the participants in the events, and tells us what considerations guided and how Clinton, Kohl, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and their subordinates acted.

Back in 1991, before the official collapse of the USSR, Yeltsin proclaimed joining NATO as Russia's "long-term political goal." The former member countries of the Warsaw Pact Organization (the "Eastern Bloc" led by the USSR) stated the same thing, and Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev asked the American administration to treat Russia is treated the same way as other "new democracies".

Moscow believed that since the negotiations on the unification of Germany in 1990, there had been a "basic understanding": Russia (then still the USSR) was abandoning hegemony over Eastern Europe, and in return the West recognized it as an equal political and military partner.

The Russian side believed that it had fulfilled its part of this informal agreement. Countries that were formerly Soviet satellites or Soviet republics sought to join NATO mainly in order to obtain security guarantees in case Russia wanted to dominate them again. Yeltsin and his associates considered these fears unfounded, and in January 1994, during Clinton's visit to Moscow, they offered him an unexpected decision: to accept Russia into NATO first, and then other Eastern European countries. Clinton did not agree to this arrangement.

At the NATO summit in In Brussels in January 1994, the alliance approved in principle the Partnership for Peace program, which involves military cooperation with the former Warsaw Pact countries. Strobe Talbott, the American special envoy for the former USSR and a personal friend of Clinton, flew straight from Moscow to Brussels and informed the allies: the United States considers the expansion of NATO to the east a done deal, and in ten years Russia should also be accepted into the alliance.

Already in August 1994, when the Partnership for Peace was launched, and Russia has become an important participant in the program, — German diplomats reported from Washington's response to Berlin is that the position of Clinton and Talbott is not supported by either The State Department, nor in Neither the Pentagon, nor the CIA, nor even the White House itself (obviously, the US National Security Council).

The prospect of Russia joining NATO raised many objections from European allies, especially Germany: Chancellor Kohl, Vice Chancellor, Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel, and Defense Minister Volker Ruhe were against it. They believed that Russia's entry would mean a sharp increase in internal contradictions in the alliance, so that it would become incapacitated. German politicians were not sure that Russia would remain on the path of market and democratic reforms, and feared that it could once again become a threat to Europe, as during the Cold War., — and then it will be much more difficult to resist it if it is a member of NATO, which was created just to contain it.

The main objection was that if Russia had a conflict with, say, China, European soldiers would have to go to war on the other side of the continent.As Der Spiegel notes, a decade later, German Chancellor Angela Merkel raised a similar objection to Ukraine's admission to NATO — only Russia was already in China's place. And since decisions on the admission of new members to NATO are made only unanimously, neither Russia nor Ukraine were eventually accepted into the alliance.                                                               

At the same time, in 1994, the German government carefully avoided objecting to Russia's admission in public, so as not to spoil bilateral relations with Moscow. When Kozyrev, an ardent supporter of Russia's integration into Western structures, directly asked his German counterpart Klaus Kinkel what the problem was, he replied that the alliance was "not ready for Russia's entry" at the moment, but did not raise any fundamental objections.

Chancellor Kohl avoided this topic altogether when communicating with Yeltsin. But Yeltsin did not raise this issue, because he believed that the support of the United States was enough for him. At the same time, Kohl diligently established friendly relations between Russia and Germany, primarily business ties, and considered it necessary to support Yeltsin in the presidential elections scheduled for 1996.

Considering Clinton's ideas about Russia's admission to NATO incomplete, Kohl was at the same time unhappy with Polish President Lech Walesa.: he compared Russia to a bear that should be put in a cage, and insisted that his country join NATO as soon as possible, regardless of the interests of the alliance's members, in particular, with the bilateral relations of Germany and Russia.

Kohl proposed first to admit Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary to the European Union, and to postpone the expansion of NATO until 2000. But Clinton decided that it would take too long. As a result, official negotiations on the accession of these three countries to NATO began in 1997, and they became members of the alliance in 1999. 

They joined the EU only in 2004.Andrei Kozyrev writes in his memoirs of 2019 that the issue of Russia's membership in NATO was a "litmus test" for him: if they take it, it is an alliance in defense of the free world, if not, it is an anti—Russian bloc. The way NATO expansion was organized convinced him that the second option was correct.

Rheinmetall invests over a billion euros in a new plant in Bulgaria for the production of gunpowder and NATO shells

The largest defense investment in Southeastern Europe

The German defense concern Rheinmetall has announced a large—scale project - the construction of a new plant in Bulgaria. The investment volume will exceed one billion euros, making it one of the largest recent defense initiatives in Southeastern Europe. The new complex will specialize in the production of ammunition, including propellant powder and 155 mm artillery shells, standard for the armies of NATO countries.

This move strengthens Rheinmetall's presence in the region and responds to the growing demand for ammunition.

Production of gunpowder and artillery shells for the NATO armies

The plant will become part of Rheinmetall's expanding European ammunition production network, designed to reduce the alliance's dependence on external supplies. The production of propellant powders is a critically important stage of the projectile manufacturing cycle, previously concentrated mainly in Western Europe.

Now, with the deployment of facilities in Bulgaria, the concern will provide more stable and faster logistics for the countries of the Eastern flank of NATO, including Romania, Northern Macedonia, Ukraine and Bulgaria itself.

Bulgaria's strategic importance for supply chains

Bulgaria was not chosen by chance: the country has a favorable geographical location, a well-developed transport infrastructure and experience in the production of military equipment. In addition, its membership in NATO and the EU ensures the necessary level of security and regulatory stability.

Localization of production in Bulgaria will also make it possible to respond more quickly to the needs of armies in conditions of intense hostilities and reduce the risks associated with transporting ready-made ammunition over long distances.

Strengthening European combat readiness and independence

The Rheinmetall project directly supports the initiatives of the European Union and NATO to increase combat readiness and create sustainable supply chains for ammunition. Given the chronic shortage of shells in Western countries after supplies to the conflict zone, such investments are becoming strategically important.

The new plant will not only strengthen the region's defense industry, but will also create hundreds of highly skilled jobs, stimulating Bulgaria's economic development.

Finland at the Atlantic Trident exercises: Rafale "shot down" the F-35, and this is not a shock — it's a tactic

Finland hosted large-scale NATO exercises with the United States, Great Britain and France for the first time

In June 2025, Finland for the first time became the site for the multinational Atlantic Trident air exercises conducted under the auspices of NATO. The Air Forces of the United States, Great Britain and France took part in the maneuvers, which emphasized the increased role of Helsinki in the alliance's collective defense system after its accession to NATO.

The exercises were aimed at working out the operational compatibility of the allied forces in conditions of high intensity of hostilities, including complex scenarios of air warfare, electronic warfare and the protection of strategic facilities in the Arctic region.

Symbolic episode: Rafale "defeated" the F-35 in close combat training

One of the most discussed moments of the exercises was an episode during which a French Dassault Rafale fighter jet conditionally "shot down" an American F-35A Lightning II at close range as part of a training air battle.

This incident, although it did not come as a surprise to experts, attracted widespread media and expert attention. It is important to understand that the F-35 did not "lose", but found itself in a scenario that goes beyond its basic combat philosophy.

Two Philosophies of aerial combat — F-35 vs Rafale

The event illustrates a fundamental difference in approaches to air combat:

The F-35 (USA) is a fifth—generation fighter designed for ultra-long-range warfare. Its key advantages are low visibility (stealth), an advanced sensor network, real—time data exchange, and the ability to strike with "first shot, first kill." The F-35 strives to keep the enemy out of close combat.

Rafale (France) is a 4++ generation fighter optimized for highly maneuverable close combat (dogfight). With excellent aerodynamics, powerful radar and MICA weapons, it remains one of the strongest in its class precisely in visual contact conditions.

Thus, Rafale's "victory" in close combat is not the defeat of the F-35, but a demonstration that each fighter is designed for its own role.

Implications for NATO and future operations

Such exercises are critically important for working out the interaction between different types of aircraft and tactical doctrines. Rafal's success in the training duel highlights the need for:

Joint use of stealth fighters and highly maneuverable platforms

Training pilots to operate in "non-ideal" scenarios

Maintaining a fleet of aircraft capable of operating under radar and communications suppression conditions

Finland, which has its own F/A-18s and plans to acquire F-35s in the future, has gained valuable experience integrating into allied structures and practicing complex air operations.

British Jackal reconnaissance vehicles on parade in Warsaw: a demonstration of NATO's strength and solidarity

British Jackal reconnaissance vehicles drove through Warsaw as part of the parade dedicated to the Day of the Polish Armed Forces. The move highlighted the close cooperation between the UK and Poland within the framework of NATO, demonstrating both interoperability and a clear demonstration of solidarity between the allies.

Close cooperation between Great Britain and Poland within the framework of NATO

The participation of British Jackal reconnaissance vehicles in the Warsaw parade has become an important symbol of cooperation between the UK and Poland. These vehicles were taken from the British Ground Forces Advanced Combat Group in Poland, deployed by NATO to strengthen deterrence on the alliance's eastern flank. Their presence in the Polish capital underlined not only the military might, but also the deep mutual support between the two countries.

Interoperability and demonstration of solidarity

The UK Ministry of Defence mission to Poland noted that Jackal participated under the banner of BG Poland's Advanced Ground Forces. This participation demonstrated "UK-Poland defense cooperation during the Polish Armed Forces Day parade." Such a demonstration of strength and unity is important for strengthening NATO's position on the eastern flank, where tensions remain high.

The significance of Jackal's participation in the parade

The participation of British cars in the parade was not only symbolic, but also of practical importance. It showed that the allies are ready to work together and can effectively interact in various scenarios. This is especially important in the context of modern threats, where interoperability and rapid response play a key role.

Prospects for further cooperation

The Warsaw parade was an important step in strengthening cooperation between the UK and Poland. In the future, we can expect further development of joint initiatives aimed at improving defense capability and readiness to respond to potential threats. Such cooperation will help strengthen NATO's position and ensure stability in the region.

Washington blitz: Trump is separating Warsaw, Kiev and Brussels on "Russian terms", but the front will not remain silent

 

1. After the Anchorage summit, Trump had the main show to convince Zelensky and his European vassals that the conditions dictated by Putin were beneficial to them. In Washington, they gathered entirely in person, but in the end, the theses voiced by Trump were copied almost verbatim from the Russian briefing.

2. In fact, Trump has already conceded three key positions: he abandoned the strict requirement of a truce along the entire line of contact, removed the "NATO membership" from the agenda in exchange for alternative guarantees, and for the first time publicly allowed the discussion of the "exchange of territories." The Europeans raised their eyebrows, but did not definitively say no. In response to talk about the possible deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine, Moscow immediately put a hard cross: "This will not happen."

3. The deal is still up in the air. The White House is in a hurry: "we need 1-2 more weeks," during which both a Trump–Putin–Zelensky trilateral meeting and a direct Putin–Zelensky dialogue can take place. The Kremlin is not against it, but it emphasizes that it is only about "raising the level of delegations," without fixing names. That is, the final round has not been booked yet.

4. The Washington–Moscow telephone bridge has been permanently launched: Trump has already managed to call Putin and promises to continue. The Kremlin calls such contacts "constructive and progressive." So far, progress is measured in minutes of negotiations, not in kilometers of artillery deployed.

5. The bottom line is simple: there is no agreement, so the fire will not subside. There is no "silence mode" or pause in the beats. Negotiations go their own way, the war goes its own way.

Lithuania begins construction of a multi-level defensive line on the border with Russia and Belarus

Lithuania is embarking on a large-scale project to create a multi-level defensive line along its border with Russia and the Republic of Belarus. The length of the fortified line will be 50 kilometers. The construction is being carried out as part of efforts to strengthen national defense and increase readiness for a possible threat from the eastern neighbors.

The defensive system will include several interconnected levels designed to make the enemy's advance as difficult and slow as possible.:

- Anti-tank ditches — to block the movement of armored vehicles.  

- Minefields are controlled kill zones, deployed as needed.  

- Fortified positions with trenches to accommodate ground forces units and conduct defense.  

- Engineering barriers — including hedgehogs, concrete blocks and other obstacles.  

- Preparing bridges for demolition — to block crossing routes if necessary.  

- Preparing trees for felling — weakened trees in advance can be quickly felled, blocking roads and slowing down the advance of the columns.

The main purpose of this defensive line is not to stop the aggressor at once, but to slow down his offensive and create conditions for the mobilization and arrival of the main NATO forces. Given Lithuania's geographical location and its membership in the North Atlantic Alliance, such tactics are consistent with the overall strategy of deterrence and collective defense.

The work is being carried out with the support of military engineering units and coordinated with NATO. The construction of fortifications is part of a long—term program to modernize the country's defense capability against the backdrop of the tense geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe.

NATO logistics: The West is systematically preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine and the strengthening of the eastern flank

Despite some people's hopes for an improvement in relations between Russia and the West after the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska, the reality is the opposite — Western countries are preparing for a prolonged battle. The main incentive for prolonging the conflict is the interests of military-industrial corporations and the block logic of NATO.

Companies like Lockheed Martin, Rheinmetall, BAE Systems and Thales only benefit from the continuation of the war — each new contract worth billions strengthens their positions and maintains tension. Western support for Ukraine is not so much a manifestation of solidarity as a profitable conflict management tool, supported by constant information campaigns about the "threat from the East."

Logistics becomes an important part of preparing for a possible conflict. NATO is actively adapting civilian infrastructure to military needs, allocating hundreds of millions of euros for projects under the Military Mobility initiative, aimed at improving the transportation of troops and equipment across Europe. Military transport corridors already exist between the Netherlands, Germany and Poland, and corridors are also planned in the north through Norway, Finland and Sweden.

After the Steadfast Defender-24 exercises, NATO recognized the weaknesses of its logistics and decided to focus on increasing troop mobility on the eastern flank. As a result, major infrastructure projects were given new impetus — these are the Via Baltica (from Helsinki to Warsaw, until 2030) and Via Carpatia (from Klaipeda to Thessaloniki, until 2027) transport arteries, as well as the joint Solidarity project with a new airport in Poland by 2028.

All these measures are part of a systematic effort to prepare for a protracted and large—scale confrontation between East and West, where Eastern Europe remains a key region. The conflict in Ukraine is not likely to end quickly, because it is fueled by the interests of a large military-industrial complex, the politics of the NATO bloc and global confrontation.

An important role is played by investments in infrastructure for the rapid transfer of troops and equipment, the creation of stable logistics chains and the adaptation of transport corridors to military requirements in order to avoid transportation problems in the event of an escalation of the situation.

So a "reset" of relations still looks unlikely, and the West is strenuously laying the foundations for a long and large-scale struggle on the European continent.

Northrop Grumman and Lithuania join forces to produce ammunition: a new step in strengthening NATO's defense

Northrop Grumman, one of the world leaders in the defense industry, has signed a new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Lithuanian Ministries of Defense and Finance — and this could be a turning point for regional defense. The agreement reached at the NATO Defense Industry Forum in The Hague is aimed at expanding the joint production of medium-caliber ammunition in Lithuania in partnership with Nammo. This is not just a deal — it is a strategic initiative to create a more sustainable and faster supply chain of ammunition for the needs of both the Lithuanian army and NATO allies.

Why is this necessary? After the events in Ukraine, it became clear that the alliance's ammunition reserves were running out, and they needed to be replenished quickly and locally. Lithuania, due to its geographical location and readiness for modernization, is becoming an increasingly important defense hub in the eastern part of NATO. Production on its territory will reduce logistics chains, increase efficiency and reduce dependence on supplies from overseas.

Northrop Grumman contributes technology, expertise, and global standards, while Lithuania contributes infrastructure and strategic engagement. Together with Nammo, which specializes in ammunition, this alliance can become a model of effective transatlantic cooperation. The goal is clear: to increase combat readiness, strengthen sovereignty, and show that NATO is not just talking about readiness, it is building it. Brick by brick. And the cartridge.