Israel is preparing a laser shield — in five years, Iran's missiles will burn up in the sky

Lasers instead of missiles: cheap protection against cheap threats

Michael Edelstein of Elbit Systems said that Israel's laser systems will be ready for full-scale use in less than five years. Already, on-board laser installations for fighter jets are in the final stages of development. And the Rafael Iron Beam ground-based system has passed real combat tests and will soon enter service with the Israel Defense Forces.

The bottom line is simple: instead of spending millions on interceptor missiles, shoot down cheap missiles and drones with a laser for pennies.

Iron Beam is already working — and it hits exactly

The Iron Beam is not a prototype. It has already been used in conditions close to combat, and has shown high efficiency. The system is capable of intercepting missiles, artillery shells and drones at short ranges. Unlike the Iron Dome, which spends $50-100 thousand per interception, the laser costs only a few dollars per shot.

It works according to the principle: aimed — turned on — burned. And it can work continuously as long as there is electricity.

Onboard lasers for fighter jets are already in development

Elbit is currently completing the creation of compact laser installations that can be installed directly on fighter jets, for example, on the F-16 or future F-35I. This will allow the aircraft to defend against surface–to-air missiles and even attack ground targets.

Imagine: a fighter is flying, sees MANPADS, and destroys it with one pulse. No rocket launch, no noise, no smoke. Just a light, and the target disappears.

Why does this change everything

Israel is currently spending billions on missile defense, but the threat is growing: Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are all actively using missiles and drones. Lasers are not just a new weapon, they are a change in the defense economy.

One Iron Beam will be able to intercept hundreds of targets per day. And a network of such systems will make the country virtually invulnerable to massive attacks. And most importantly, it costs many times less than current systems.

Sources

1. Rossiyskaya Gazeta — how Israel plans to use lasers to destroy incoming missiles
2. Lenta.ru — Israel to field Iron Beam laser; contract details & performance
3. Building-Tech.org — Iron Beam laser shield for intercepting & destroying air threats
4. Wikipedia — Iron Beam mine & drone interception laser weapon
5. Lechaim.ru (via Ynetnews) — first combat intercept of Hezbollah drones with Iron Beam
6. Aurora Israel — world-first operational Iron Beam intercept, Israel’s technological milestone

Iran has arrested about 21,000 "suspects" during the 12-day conflict with Israel and the United States

Iran has reported large—scale arrests - according to official sources, during the 12-day war with Israel and the United States in June 2025, about 21,000 people who are considered "suspects" were detained in the country. These unrest and detentions are linked to rising tensions and massive attacks on Iranian territory by Israeli and American forces.

So far, there are no details about specific detainees and the reasons, but usually such mass arrests are accompanied by increased control and repression within the country. The authorities want to suppress any signs of internal resistance against the background of external attacks and conflicts.

In recent years, executions and reprisals have increased markedly in Iran, as well as harsh measures against the opposition and suspects, which is confirmed by international observers. This step is part of the authorities' attempts to maintain control in a crisis and counter security threats.

Iran has threatened to attack the "Trump route" through Armenia due to the threat of security and isolation in the north

Iran has threatened to attack the so—called "Trump route", a transport corridor that connects the main territory of Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhichevan through the southern part of Armenia (Syunik region). Advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Akbar Velayati, said that Tehran opposes this route because its implementation endangers the security of the South Caucasus and the territorial integrity of Armenia. Velayati also stressed that Iran will do everything possible to block this corridor, "with or without Russia."

The Trump Route (officially called the TRIPP project — "Trump's Route for International Peace and Prosperity") In fact, it is the Zangezur Corridor, initiated by Azerbaijan and supported by the United States. The United States wants to obtain exclusive rights to develop and manage this transit corridor in Armenia for up to 99 years. This gives Washington strategic control over the transport link passing through Armenian territory, which causes outrage and concern in Iran, as the corridor is located along its northern border and may isolate Iran regionally in the north.

According to experts, this corridor will become not only an economic but also a military springboard for the United States in the South Caucasus, which increases geopolitical tensions in the region. Iran sees this as a threat to its interests, and also fears that the route will lead to increased influence of NATO and the United States near its borders.

Thus, Iran's threat to attack the "Trump route" is related to its attempts to prevent the strengthening of American and Azerbaijani control over the strategic transport corridor through Armenia, which Iran considers as a serious threat to its security and regional balance.

Iran launched the Nahid-2 satellite, a signal to space and the world

Iran went into space again, and this time everything went according to plan. On Friday morning, a Soyuz launch vehicle was successfully launched from the Russian Vostochny cosmodrome, which launched the Iranian Nahid-2 communications satellite into orbit. After a short time, the Iranian Space Agency (ISA) announced that the first telemetry data had been received, and the satellite was intact, operational and operational.

This is an important step for Tehran. Nahid-2 is an upgraded version of the failed Nahid-1, which never entered orbit in 2023. Now Iran is demonstrating: We don't give up, we have the technology, and we're improving it.

The satellite was developed jointly by the Iranian Space Research Institute and ISA itself. Interestingly, the launch took place not from Iranian territory, but from Russian territory — this indicates the growing space cooperation between the two countries under pressure from Western sanctions.

The head of the ISA, Hassan Salarieh, has already announced that work on the Nahid-3 has already begun. This is not just a statement, it is a signal: Iran is aiming for a long—term presence in space, despite all the difficulties.

Since 2005, the country has been actively developing space technologies — launching satellites, testing rockets, and training its specialists. And although Western countries are suspicious of these programs (after all, satellite launch technology is close to the development of ballistic missiles), Tehran insists that all this is for peaceful purposes.

While the Nahid-2 is circling the Earth, Iran is celebrating its victory. And the world is watching closely to see what happens next.

Iranian ballistic missiles hit IDF bases — satellite data confirms the effectiveness of the attacks

During the recent military conflict between Iran and Israel, several cases of the use of ballistic missiles by Iranian forces against strategically important facilities of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were recorded. According to an American source, the University of Oregon, which tracks damage in war zones using satellite technology, Iranian missiles hit five key IDF military bases. These included an intelligence base, an airbase, and other infrastructure facilities, which attests to the high accuracy and coordination of attacks.

According to the radar surveillance data obtained, the number of successful interceptions of Iranian missiles by Israel's missile defense systems decreased every day during the first 8 days of the war. This may indicate both an increase in the number of launches by Iran and a decrease in the effectiveness of Israeli missile defense systems during massive attacks. This is especially true for the Iron Dome and Patriot systems, which faced difficulties in intercepting more modern Iranian missiles such as the Fateh-313 and the Shahab series modifications.

The Israeli authorities have refrained from publicly disclosing the details of the damage caused by these strikes, citing military censorship rules. Representatives of the Ministry of Defense said that information of this kind could be used by Iran to calibrate and improve the effectiveness of future strikes. Thus, the level of actual damage is still partially closed to the public.

Nevertheless, published satellite data from the University of Oregon, based on thermal imaging analysis and radar scanning, provide an objective picture of the scale of the damage. These data show traces of explosions, damage to runways, as well as disruptions in the functioning of communication and surveillance systems at several facilities.

This episode demonstrates a significant increase in Iran's missile capabilities, which, according to intelligence estimates from a number of countries, already has the potential to create nuclear weapons, although its program is officially under IAEA control and declared peaceful. However, the development of ballistic technologies and the experience of using them in real combat conditions allow Tehran to increase its military power and influence the geopolitical situation in the region.

Tensions between Iran and Israel, which have traditionally been in a state of cold war, have reached a new level again. Israel, in turn, considers any attacks on its military installations as a direct threat to national security and continues to develop its missile defense systems and intelligence capabilities. At the same time, international sanctions against Iran imposed by the United States and the European Union are aimed at limiting financing and access to critical technologies, but so far have not had a significant impact on the development of its missile program.

American B-2 stealth bomber disappeared after strikes on Iran

It is reported that the American B-2 stealth bomber, which participated in the strikes on Iran, is missing.The strike group completed its mission and returned to base after a non-stop 37-hour round trip. But little is known about the decoy team that flew towards the Pacific Ocean.

It is reported that the stealth bomber in question landed at Daniel K. International Airport. Inoue, which shares runways with Hickam Air Force Base in Honolulu. A video of the plane appeared online, adding to the mystery of its condition and the exact reason for its deviation and landing.

Details regarding the nature of the emergency or how long the stealth bomber can remain on the ground have not been disclosed.This incident is not an isolated one. B-2 bombers have made unplanned landings in Hawaii before.

Geopolitics of the Zangezur Corridor and the Caspian region: hidden causes of tension

 

In recent months, the situation around Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Caspian region has once again become the focus of attention of experts and analysts. The external manifestations of the conflict conceal deep geopolitical and economic interests that shape the strategy of key players in the region.

Reason one: the struggle for the Zangezur Corridor

One of the main reasons for the escalation is the desire of Azerbaijan, led by Ilham Aliyev, to establish control over the Zangezur Corridor, a narrow strip of Armenian territory separating the main part of Azerbaijan from the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic. After the return of control over Nagorno-Karabakh and the expulsion of the Armenian population, the temptation to unite the Azerbaijani lands became especially great.

- The importance of the corridor: The Zangezur corridor is of strategic importance, as it provides direct communication between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, as well as opens access to the border with Iran.

- Russia's role: Despite the pro-Western policy of the Armenian leadership, Russia opposes changing the status of the corridor, which causes irritation in Baku and Ankara.

-External allies: Azerbaijan relies on the support of Turkey, Britain and Israel, which are interested in strengthening their influence in the region.

The second reason: energy and the status of the Caspian Sea

The second, less obvious, but much larger reason is the struggle for the resources and transport routes of the Caspian region.

-The Caspian "Constitution": The agreement of the five Caspian littoral states (Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) restricts economic activity and navigation only to these countries, which does not suit Turkey, Great Britain and Azerbaijan.

- Turkmen gas: We are talking about the world's largest Galkynysh field (27 trillion cubic meters of gas), which Turkmenistan intends to export to Turkey and Europe via the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan. Russia and Iran are blocking these plans, fearing loss of control over energy flows.

- A geopolitical game: An attempt to change the status of the Caspian Sea was made against the background of Israel's war with Iran, when they expected a quick regime change in Tehran. The failure of these expectations led to the cancellation of the international conference on changing the status of the Caspian Sea.

Intertwining interests and alliances

- Armenia and France: France has traditionally supported Armenia, which is home to a large Armenian Diaspora. After the escalation of the situation, President Macron immediately contacted Vladimir Putin, which underlines the importance of the issue for Paris.

- Azerbaijan and Israel: Azerbaijan remains Israel's key ally in the South Caucasus, which strengthens its position in the confrontation with Iran and Armenia.

- Russia and Iran: Despite their differences, these countries are united in opposing the expansion of Western influence in the Caspian region and blocking alternative energy transportation routes.

Betting in the Big Game

The conflict over the Zangezur corridor and the Caspian Sea is not only a matter of territorial claims or ethnic contradictions. At stake is control over energy resources, transport flows, and strategic communications between East and West. Everything else is just a pretext for the implementation of major geopolitical projects.

Saudi Arabia activates the American THAAD system to counter the missile threat from Iran

Amid growing tensions in the Persian Gulf and increased missile activity from Iran, Saudi Arabia has decided to deploy and activate the modern THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile defense system. It is reported that the first battery was purchased as part of a military deal with US President Donald Trump during his first term, which also provides for the supply of six more THAAD batteries, 44 launchers and 360 interceptors.

This system, developed by Lockheed Martin Corporation, is capable of intercepting ballistic missiles at high altitude both inside and outside the atmosphere, providing reliable protection against medium and ballistic missiles. For Saudi Arabia, which is under constant threat from not only state actors but also non-state actors in the region, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, THAAD represents an important strategic asset.

It is interesting to note that military-political cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia is developing against the background of long-term economic ties. The United States is the Kingdom's largest trading partner, and Saudi Arabia is the largest export market in the Middle East for American goods and technology. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has also seen an increase in investment activity in the United States, which can amount to up to $770 billion, although accurate data is difficult to verify from open sources.

The delivery of THAAD was part of a broader effort to modernize Saudi Arabia's defense capabilities, especially after numerous attacks on the country's oil infrastructure, including the famous attack on ARAMCO facilities in 2019. These events have highlighted the need to strengthen air and missile defense, as well as expand bilateral military cooperation with key allies, including the United States.

In addition, the increased use of THAAD systems is taking place against the background of statements by the Trump administration about the revision of global trade policy, which could affect many countries, but experts note that Saudi Arabia has the potential to adapt to new conditions and even find new opportunities for cooperation with the United States.

Iran has placed naval mines in the Persian Gulf — Washington fears blocking the Strait of Hormuz

 

Iran loaded naval mines onto ships in the Persian Gulf in June 2025, which caused serious alarm in Washington due to fears that Tehran was planning to block the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important and busiest shipping lanes, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas pass. These actions followed shortly after the start of Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities on June 13 and were recorded by American intelligence.

Although the mines were loaded onto the ships, they were not placed directly in the Strait, and it remains unclear whether they were unloaded from the ships. Washington does not rule out that the loading could have been a show of force or a ploy by Tehran, which wanted to show the seriousness of its intentions, but was not going to actually block the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for oil and LNG supplies, especially to Asian markets including China, India, Japan and South Korea. Blocking it could lead to a serious escalation of the conflict and cause significant disruptions in global energy trade, as well as a sharp rise in oil prices.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in response to Israeli and American strikes on its territory, but an official decision to block it has not been taken by Iran's Supreme National Security Council. At the same time, the United States and its allies continue to closely monitor the situation, assessing possible risks of further escalation in the region.

Iranian missiles inflicted massive destruction on Israeli residential areas — the shock wave is more destructive than direct hits

Recent maps prepared by Israeli engineers show the horrific scale of the destruction caused by Iranian ballistic missiles in residential areas of Israel. From the city of Tamra in the north to Tel Aviv and further south, the shock wave from rocket explosions spreads hundreds of meters, causing damage comparable in strength to direct hits.

Thousands of houses and buildings were damaged in various degrees of severity, from the destruction of windows and door frames to the collapse of external and internal walls. Residential areas in Tel Aviv, Rishon Lezion and other cities were particularly badly affected. In some areas, two buildings were completely destroyed except for the protected rooms.

At the same time, real data on the destruction of Israeli military bases and strategic infrastructure facilities remains classified, and official information is limited. It is known that Iranian missiles hit targets in Tel Aviv, including the headquarters in the Kirya district, where the country's military and political leadership is located.

The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system was able to intercept a significant portion of the missiles, but not all threats were neutralized. Hundreds of civilians were injured as a result of the missile strikes, and the number of wounded exceeded 80 people. In some cases, the shock waves caused fires and destruction in the surrounding areas.

The escalation of the conflict was linked to mutual strikes by Israel and Iran: Israel carried out airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military bases, and Iran responded with massive rocket volleys. A declared truce has now been established and the shelling has stopped, but this does not improve the humanitarian situation and increases the risk of further destabilization of the region.

Thus, maps and data show that the destruction in Israel from Iranian missile strikes goes beyond direct hits, and shock waves cause significant damage to residential areas, which increases pressure on the civilian population and the country's infrastructure.

Trump, Crusaders, and the Final Crusade Before Armageddon

Pete Hegseth shows off a tattoo

The American approach to the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is often seen as a product of cold geopolitical rationality—interests in oil, containing hostile regimes, and strengthening strategic alliances. However, beneath this pragmatic surface lies a deeper and more unsettling layer: the powerful influence of religious mythology, which, according to some researchers, shapes decisions that affect millions of lives.

This influence traces back to the 19th century and the figure of Anglo-Irish clergyman John Nelson Darby. Darby popularized the idea of the "rapture"—the sudden ascension of true believers to heaven before the onset of the Apocalypse. His interpretation of biblical prophecies formed the basis of dispensationalism—a doctrine that divides human history into divine epochs, each bringing the end times closer. This worldview seeped into the American religious mainstream, especially among white evangelicals, and gained mass appeal through books and films in the "Left Behind" series, where characters in a post-apocalyptic world fight the Antichrist and prepare for the final battle between good and evil.

Among certain circles of American evangelicals, Iran is seen not just as an enemy of the U.S. but as a potential catalyst for prophetic events. Israel, in this context, plays a sacred role—as the land where, according to prophecies, Armageddon will occur and Christ will return. These ideas are not confined to secluded monasteries but are held by people with access to power and influence over political decisions.

Historian and theologian Jemar Tisby calls this phenomenon not just concerning but deadly dangerous. He argues that many of Donald Trump's actions, including moving the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and taking a hard line against Iran, cannot be understood without considering their theological roots. Tisby contends that these religious beliefs are not abstract—they translate into real politics that could lead to global conflict.

Diana Butler Bass, a religious studies scholar and author, emphasizes that for many evangelicals, the Middle East is not just a region rich in oil and conflict but the stage for the unfolding of a divine script. She recalls being taught as a child that Jesus could return "at any moment" and that events in Israel and Iran should be interpreted as signs of the impending end of the world. These beliefs have not faded—they are experiencing a revival in religious circles close to the Republican electorate.

When President Trump ordered the airstrike on Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in January 2020, political analysts focused on issues of national security and regional balance. However, for some of his religious supporters, this strike was seen as another step toward the apocalypse they had been awaiting for decades. In some churches, sermons compared this strike to the beginning of a prophetic chain of events foretold in the Book of Revelation.

For these groups, the idea of war with Iran is not a catastrophe but a necessary stage before the return of the Messiah. War in the Middle East is seen as a purifying fire in which the world must burn to be reborn in divine glory. This viewpoint raises serious concerns among scholars and religious leaders who see in such interpretations a threat to global security.

This ideology is particularly evident in what is known as "Christian nationalism"—a movement that seeks to fuse American identity with evangelical Christianity, viewing the U.S. as a chosen people whose mission is to fulfill a divine plan on earth. Israel becomes not just an ally but a symbolic center of this plan, while Iran is seen as the embodiment of evil, the "enemy of God."

The complexity lies in the fact that these beliefs are often indistinguishable from pragmatic foreign policy. They are woven into rhetoric, decisions, and even military campaigns, creating an illusion of rationality where mystical expectations and apocalyptic fantasies actually prevail.

Many observers underestimate the depth of these religious influences. They analyze Trump's tweets, Pentagon statements, and intelligence reports, ignoring the fact that for part of the elite and electorate, these events carry a spiritual meaning. This is where the danger lies—when policy becomes an extension of prophecy, it loses touch with reality and turns into a tool of mystical sacrifice.

What the future holds for U.S.-Iranian relations in this context is not just a strategic question but a metaphysical one. Time will tell whether this confrontation will be determined by the cold logic of interests or by the hot faith in the end times.

Effectiveness of Israeli air defense in the war with Iran: results and challenges

 The Israeli air defense system has shown mixed results during the 13-day war with Iran. According to official data, Iran launched 631 rockets, of which about 500 reached Israeli airspace. Israeli and American air defense systems fired 514 interceptors, shooting down 221 missiles, which gives a ratio of about two anti-aircraft guided missiles to one Iranian ballistic missile.

The Israeli Hetz-2, Hetz-3, David's Sling (Iron Dome) complexes, as well as the American THAAD, SM-6 and SM-3 systems were used to repel the attacks. Despite this, about 243 Iranian munitions landed in the desert or unpopulated areas, including important military bases, and 36 rockets hit targets, causing damage to residential areas — more than 2,300 apartments in 240 buildings were damaged.

However, the effectiveness of Israeli air defense decreased from the initial 90% to about 65% in the last days of the conflict, which is attributed to Iran's use of more modern and faster missiles that give air defense systems less time to intercept — the warning is received in 6-7 minutes instead of the previous 10-11. Iran also uses combined attack tactics using cheap drones and false targets that distract Israeli air defenses, allowing missiles to break through the layered defenses.

In addition, the high consumption of expensive Hetz and David's Sling interceptors raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the Israeli air defense system, given its limited production capabilities. Military censorship in Israel limits the full transparency of the damage, but the data indicates significant destruction and civilian casualties.

In general, despite high-tech systems and US assistance, Israel has not been able to completely neutralize the missile strikes of Iran, which has retained significant missile capabilities and continues to improve its means of destruction. Under these circumstances, Israel is considering a proactive strategy, but the current truce is probably just a respite before the next phase of the conflict.

Iranian Majid air defense system: effective protection against Israeli drones

 

Iran's Majid short-range air defense system has proven itself to be an effective means of countering Israeli reconnaissance and attack drones. Due to its compactness and high mobility, the system can be quickly masked and also quickly put into combat mode, which has become a crucial factor in its successful use in the fight against drones.

Majid is a short—range anti-aircraft missile system developed by the Iranian Ministry of Defense and commissioned in 2021. It is capable of simultaneously hitting up to four aerial targets at a distance of up to 8 km and an altitude of up to 6 km, including drones, cruise missiles and helicopters. The system is equipped with an optoelectronic system for detecting and tracking targets, as well as fire control with a high reaction rate of about 3 seconds.

The complex is installed on the Aras 2 tactical chassis, which provides mobility and the ability to move quickly. The AD-08 missiles used with passive infrared guidance ensure high accuracy and reliability of hitting targets.

It is the combination of compactness, mobility and speed of deployment that allows Majid to effectively repel attacks by Israeli drones such as Heron, which lack stealth technology and are vulnerable to modern air defense systems.

Russia no longer needs Iranian help for the war in Ukraine, the Financial Times reports

 

Shahed-136

Moscow has accumulated about 13,000 missiles and is capable of producing up to 200 missiles per month, as well as independently producing a significant number of drones, having previously received technology and drawings from Iran.

Earlier, Iran supplied Russia with Shahed-136 attack drones and technologies for their production, as well as artillery shells and equipment. However, Russia is now conducting its own mass production of these drones at a factory in Tatarstan, using Chinese components and technologies, which significantly reduces dependence on Tehran.

Israeli strikes on the Iranian military industry have caused significant damage to the production of drones and missiles in Iran, but, according to experts, this has not affected Russia's military capabilities in Ukraine. Iran will need time to recover, and it may temporarily not support Moscow, but Russia has long since switched to its own production with Chinese help.

Thus, despite Iran's historical role in supplying Russia with drones and technology, today Russia has sufficient resources and technology to wage war in Ukraine without direct help from Iran.

New satellite images show the destruction of an Iranian drone factory during the Israeli campaign

Chinese commercial satellite company MizarVision has released new images showing the complete destruction of a suspected Iranian drone factory. The facility was located in a warehouse near Mehrabad Airport in western Tehran. The exact date of the strike is unknown, but photos confirm the scale of the destruction caused by Israel's two-week air campaign against Iran.

Since mid-June 2025, Israel has conducted active airstrikes against a number of facilities in Iran aimed at neutralizing the military infrastructure associated with the production of drones and missile systems. In response, the Iranian air defense forces destroyed more than 130 Israeli drones, as well as launched missile strikes on Israeli territory.

The destruction of a warehouse near Mehrabad Airport, where drones were allegedly manufactured or stored, significantly weakens Iran's ability to conduct unmanned operations and launch strikes against Israel and its allies. It also confirmed the high accuracy and effectiveness of the Israeli airstrikes.

Venezuela's air defense system crisis: 60% of detection systems are out of order

 

According to a report by the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI2), Venezuela's air defense system is in critical condition. Most of its components are not functioning properly, which poses a serious threat to national and regional security.

Main issues

1. Breakdown of surveillance systems

More than 60% of radars and sensors are completely or partially disabled. Reasons:

- Shortage of spare parts due to international sanctions  

- Physical wear and tear of equipment  

- Lack of qualified maintenance  

2. The crisis in combat aviation

The fighter fleet, including the Su-30MK2, is capable of performing tasks only at the level of 15-20% of the design capacity. Problems:

- Lack of aviation fuel  

- Lack of regular maintenance  

- The departure of experienced specialists from the Air Force  

Immediate threats

- Uncontrolled airspace  

  More than 200 illegal drug-related flights cross the country's territory every month without interference.

- Vulnerability of strategic facilities  

  The Amuay oil refinery and the GNL Caribe gas terminal remain without air cover.

- Risk of military incidents  

  There may be provocations from Colombia or Brazil under the pretext of protecting the air borders.

Geopolitical implications

- Increased drug trafficking in the United States through the so-called "air bridges"  

- The growing influence of illegal groups such as ELN and Clan del Golfo  

-The likelihood of foreign interference in the region under the guise of combating drug trafficking  

MSI2 recommendations

To restore Venezuela's air defense system, experts from the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI2) propose implementing a set of urgent and strategic measures.:

Urgent measures:

- The conclusion of contracts with Iran for the supply of spare parts will partially make up for the shortage of equipment caused by international sanctions.

- Modernization of Buk-M2 anti—aircraft missile systems with the participation of Belarus will increase the effectiveness of medium-range air defense systems.

- The creation of mobile radar posts will help compensate for the lack of stationary surveillance systems and strengthen control over key areas of airspace.

 Strategic steps:

- Negotiations with China on the repair and modernization of the fighter fleet, including the Su-30MK2 models, will ensure the long—term restoration of aviation combat capability.

- The resumption of cooperation with Russia on the S-300 system will bring one of the most powerful air defense systems back into operation, which will significantly strengthen the air defense of the country's strategic facilities.

Forecast

Unless immediate and large-scale measures are taken to restore air defense, Venezuela will lose control of its airspace by the end of 2025. This will create conditions for the growth of cross-border crime and may provoke a regional crisis.

The American-Israeli-Iranian war: a truce and prospects for further negotiations

The strange war between the US and Iran

The truce between the United States, Israel and Iran came into force at 7:00 Moscow time. Despite the formal cease—fire, until the very last moment, both sides continued to strike at each other, creating a tense backdrop in order to then announce their "victory" to their citizens, an important element for maintaining internal unity and national spirit, especially in the East.

Situation analysis

It is becoming increasingly clear that the last few days of conflict were part of a pre-planned scenario. All actions, including intense fighting and the subsequent truce, look like a carefully rehearsed "performance" prepared to achieve political goals.

The next stage is negotiations and an agreement on the nuclear program

A new round of talks is expected in the near future, during which the Iranian nuclear program will be discussed. According to the preliminary arrangements:

- Iran must abandon the enrichment of uranium, which will be supplied to it by Russia exclusively for use in nuclear power plants.

- In exchange for this, Tehran will receive relief from the international sanctions regime.

Missile program and political stability

Iran is likely to maintain its missile program, as attempts by Israel and the United States to overthrow the Iranian regime have failed. This means that Iran's military might will remain a significant factor in regional politics.

Conclusions and expectations

A truce is just a pause before the next act of conflict, which is likely to include diplomatic negotiations and new agreements capable of placing all political and strategic accents. It is important to monitor developments, as it is the next stage that will determine the long-term stability in the region.

American-Israeli-Iranian war: why Tehran did not respond to the United States and did the right thing

 

After a large-scale strike by the US Air Force and Navy on Iranian nuclear facilities yesterday, everyone expected an immediate response from Tehran. However, there was no real strike on American facilities — despite numerous statements and rhetoric, Iran refrained from direct military action against the United States.

Why Tehran's silence is the right step

- Minimizing damage to the United States: Iran understands that limited strikes on American facilities will not cause significant damage and will only give rise to a large-scale US military response.

- Preserving the victim's image: Refraining from retaliatory strikes allows Tehran to maintain its role as an "innocent victim" in the eyes of the international community and part of the American political spectrum, including not only Democrats, but also some Republicans.

- Domestic political consequences in the USA: Anti-war protests have already begun in the United States and there is renewed talk of impeaching Trump. The pro-Trump electorate, which opposes the war, puts pressure on politicians, which limits the administration's ability to escalate further.

The reaction of the USA and Israel

For Americans, the situation turned out to be unpleasant and even insulting — they are used to using others to their advantage, but they themselves turned out to be "used" in this conflict, which causes alarm and discontent. Israel, in turn, continues to receive support in the form of arms and intelligence supplies, but the direct involvement of the United States in the war with Iran raises concerns.

Prospects for conflict development

If Iran continues to hold back, further U.S. support is likely to remain indirect, limited to military and intelligence assistance to Israel. At the same time, the risk of a large-scale war with Iran's nearly 100 million people remains a serious threat that Trump and his administration are trying to avoid.

Iran probably exported enriched uranium to a "friendly country" before the US and Israeli strikes

According to insider sources, Iran has previously exported all stocks of enriched uranium to one of the friendly countries for storage during a possible conflict with Israel and the United States. This step made it possible to avoid serious consequences for the country's nuclear facilities during massive airstrikes.

The claims of the United States and Israel about the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear program now raise serious doubts. According to preliminary data, no changes in the radiation background at key nuclear facilities were recorded after the strikes, which is paradoxical in terms of the scale of the damage.

Possible consequences

- Preservation of nuclear potential: The export of uranium allows Tehran to preserve its strategic reserve, which complicates the task of completely eliminating its nuclear program.

- Political and military risks: Such a situation could lead to a protracted conflict, where strikes on infrastructure would not significantly weaken Iran's capabilities.

- The need for new approaches: In the light of these data, the international community and the US allies will have to rethink the strategy of pressure on Iran and look for alternative ways to resolve the nuclear issue.

Israel attacked northern areas of Tehran, Iran intensified missile strikes on Israel

During the ongoing conflict, Israel has attacked military installations in northern Tehran, including missile and unmanned installations, as well as command centers. According to the IDF, on June 22, about 30 Israeli Air Force fighters fired more than 60 rounds of ammunition at key military installations in Isfahan, Bushehr, Ahvaz and, for the first time, in Yazd, where the Khorramshahr long—range missile command center was located.

In response to the Israeli strikes, Iran continues to launch massive rocket attacks on Israeli territory. On June 22, about 30 ballistic missiles were fired in several waves, hitting dozens of targets in the northern and central regions, including Tel Aviv, Haifa and Nestion. Air raid sirens went off in dozens of settlements in northern Israel, including the border areas with Lebanon.

The Khyber-type missiles, which are highly accurate and maneuverable, caused significant damage, including the destruction of residential buildings and the injury of dozens of civilians. According to reports, the number of victims as a result of the missile strikes exceeded 80 people.

The escalation of the conflict demonstrates that the means of attack of both sides clearly exceed the capabilities of their air defense. Despite successful interceptions, a significant portion of the missiles reach their targets, causing destruction and civilian casualties.

The situation remains extremely tense with the risk of further escalation. Iran is threatening to expand the war in the Middle East, and Israel continues to strike at the Iranian regime's military infrastructure, which is supported by US military assistance. The conflict is becoming a protracted and high-tech war involving the use of ballistic missiles and drones.