Iran has threatened to attack the "Trump route" through Armenia due to the threat of security and isolation in the north

Iran has threatened to attack the so—called "Trump route", a transport corridor that connects the main territory of Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhichevan through the southern part of Armenia (Syunik region). Advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Akbar Velayati, said that Tehran opposes this route because its implementation endangers the security of the South Caucasus and the territorial integrity of Armenia. Velayati also stressed that Iran will do everything possible to block this corridor, "with or without Russia."

The Trump Route (officially called the TRIPP project — "Trump's Route for International Peace and Prosperity") In fact, it is the Zangezur Corridor, initiated by Azerbaijan and supported by the United States. The United States wants to obtain exclusive rights to develop and manage this transit corridor in Armenia for up to 99 years. This gives Washington strategic control over the transport link passing through Armenian territory, which causes outrage and concern in Iran, as the corridor is located along its northern border and may isolate Iran regionally in the north.

According to experts, this corridor will become not only an economic but also a military springboard for the United States in the South Caucasus, which increases geopolitical tensions in the region. Iran sees this as a threat to its interests, and also fears that the route will lead to increased influence of NATO and the United States near its borders.

Thus, Iran's threat to attack the "Trump route" is related to its attempts to prevent the strengthening of American and Azerbaijani control over the strategic transport corridor through Armenia, which Iran considers as a serious threat to its security and regional balance.

Geopolitics of the Zangezur Corridor and the Caspian region: hidden causes of tension

 

In recent months, the situation around Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Caspian region has once again become the focus of attention of experts and analysts. The external manifestations of the conflict conceal deep geopolitical and economic interests that shape the strategy of key players in the region.

Reason one: the struggle for the Zangezur Corridor

One of the main reasons for the escalation is the desire of Azerbaijan, led by Ilham Aliyev, to establish control over the Zangezur Corridor, a narrow strip of Armenian territory separating the main part of Azerbaijan from the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic. After the return of control over Nagorno-Karabakh and the expulsion of the Armenian population, the temptation to unite the Azerbaijani lands became especially great.

- The importance of the corridor: The Zangezur corridor is of strategic importance, as it provides direct communication between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, as well as opens access to the border with Iran.

- Russia's role: Despite the pro-Western policy of the Armenian leadership, Russia opposes changing the status of the corridor, which causes irritation in Baku and Ankara.

-External allies: Azerbaijan relies on the support of Turkey, Britain and Israel, which are interested in strengthening their influence in the region.

The second reason: energy and the status of the Caspian Sea

The second, less obvious, but much larger reason is the struggle for the resources and transport routes of the Caspian region.

-The Caspian "Constitution": The agreement of the five Caspian littoral states (Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) restricts economic activity and navigation only to these countries, which does not suit Turkey, Great Britain and Azerbaijan.

- Turkmen gas: We are talking about the world's largest Galkynysh field (27 trillion cubic meters of gas), which Turkmenistan intends to export to Turkey and Europe via the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan. Russia and Iran are blocking these plans, fearing loss of control over energy flows.

- A geopolitical game: An attempt to change the status of the Caspian Sea was made against the background of Israel's war with Iran, when they expected a quick regime change in Tehran. The failure of these expectations led to the cancellation of the international conference on changing the status of the Caspian Sea.

Intertwining interests and alliances

- Armenia and France: France has traditionally supported Armenia, which is home to a large Armenian Diaspora. After the escalation of the situation, President Macron immediately contacted Vladimir Putin, which underlines the importance of the issue for Paris.

- Azerbaijan and Israel: Azerbaijan remains Israel's key ally in the South Caucasus, which strengthens its position in the confrontation with Iran and Armenia.

- Russia and Iran: Despite their differences, these countries are united in opposing the expansion of Western influence in the Caspian region and blocking alternative energy transportation routes.

Betting in the Big Game

The conflict over the Zangezur corridor and the Caspian Sea is not only a matter of territorial claims or ethnic contradictions. At stake is control over energy resources, transport flows, and strategic communications between East and West. Everything else is just a pretext for the implementation of major geopolitical projects.