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Showing posts with label internal resistance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label internal resistance. Show all posts

Saturday, 9 August 2025

Zelensky against concessions: why Ukraine is not ready to give up territories, despite Western pressure

 

"Ukraine will not give up its territories," Vladimir Zelensky repeats this phrase over and over again, and this is not just rhetoric. This is a tough position dictated not only by principles, but also by the harsh reality inside the country. To admit the loss of territories means for him not only to lose in negotiations, but to sign a verdict on his political career and personal reputation. At a time when millions of Ukrainians have lost their homes and hundreds of thousands are fighting, surrendering even a piece of land will inevitably be perceived as a betrayal.

Patriotic sentiments in the country are at their peak right now. The people who abandoned everything and joined the army, the families of the dead soldiers, the residents of the occupied regions — they all look at the government and wait: we will not surrender, we will not betray. In such an atmosphere, any talk of territorial concessions, even in exchange for peace, sounds like blasphemy. Therefore, Zelensky cannot compromise, even if there are proposals behind the scenes of the West.

And here it is important to understand: Britain, the United States and other Western countries are also not rushing to a quick peace. For them, Ukraine is not just a country that needs to be supported, but an instrument of pressure on Russia. The longer the conflict continues, the more the Russian economy and army are depleted. Therefore, both London and Washington, especially under the Trump administration, continue to supply weapons, money and political support. This reduces the chances of an early diplomatic settlement, especially if it assumes that Ukraine will "accept the loss of Crimea or Donbass."

The result is a vicious circle.:  

— Ukraine cannot give up because of internal pressure.  

— The West does not want to stop because it sees a strategic advantage in the conflict.  

— Russia, in turn, is not going to leave.

And that's where the political game begins. Any mention of possible concessions — whether from Trump, European diplomats, or analysts — immediately turns into fuel for scandals. Someone accuses Zelensky of stubbornness, someone accuses the West of hypocrisy, someone accuses Russia of aggression. And a real diplomatic solution is being postponed further and further.

Perhaps everyone needs peace. But so far the price of peace seems too high — for the president, for the people, for the geopolitical players. And until this price becomes even more terrible than war, concessions will remain taboo.

Saturday, 21 June 2025

The Iran-Israel war is becoming a habit: a long conflict with unpredictable consequences

 

Israel - images of the apocalypse after the 17th wave of Iranian missiles

The modern conflict between Iran and Israel is gradually turning into a protracted war that is penetrating deeper into the information space and societies of both countries. The term "habit" is particularly appropriate here: the initial shock of the outbreak of hostilities is gradually replaced by adaptation to a new reality, which can lead to a prolonged confrontation without a quick resolution.

Geographical and logistical constraints

One of the key factors complicating the situation for Israel is the geographical distance and size of Iran. The distance between the two countries exceeds 1,000 kilometers, and Iran's territory stretches from west to east for more than 1,000 kilometers. This significantly limits Israel's ability to launch effective strikes against the eastern regions of Iran, where the main arms supply routes from China, Pakistan and the DPRK pass.

Arms supplies and Iran's resilience

Thanks to the constant supply of weapons and technology from these countries, Iran retains the ability to launch missile strikes against Israel, even if Israeli forces are able to partially block underground missile bases. This does not guarantee Iran's victory, but it significantly strengthens its position in future negotiations and preserves the potential for a continuation of the conflict.

Internal consolidation in Iran

Attempts to shake Iran from within have not been successful. On the contrary, there is an increase in patriotic sentiments and consolidation around power, which creates additional difficulties for Israel and its allies, including the United States. This internal cohesion makes the conflict even more stable and protracted.

Prospects for conflict and the role of the United States

Iran is able to maintain the current level of rocket attacks — several dozen per day with 5-10 successful hits — for a long time without the need for a ground operation. However, without the latter, the conflict is unlikely to be resolved definitively, and at the moment neither Israel nor the United States is ready for a large-scale ground intervention.

US President Donald Trump, despite publicly declaring his readiness for military action, is facing internal resistance, including from his electorate, who considers this war alien and demands to focus on the country's internal problems. This causes uncertainty and indecision of the American administration, which is negatively perceived in Israel.

Diplomatic bargaining and the future of conflict

Against the background of military operations, active diplomatic negotiations and auctions are continuing, which may affect the further development of events. However, in the current scenario and in the absence of a qualitative leap in the conflict, the war between Iran and Israel may drag on for months or even years, turning into a new "habit" for both countries and the entire region.

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