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Showing posts with label ceasefire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ceasefire. Show all posts

Sunday, 10 August 2025

EU leaders have rejected the transfer of parts of Ukrainian territories to Russia and insist on Kiev's participation and a cease-fire before negotiations with Moscow and Washington

The leaders of France, Italy, Germany, Poland, Great Britain, Finland and the European Commission issued a joint statement before the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska (August 15, 2025), in which they sharply rejected the idea of transferring part of the Ukrainian territories to Russia. They insist that any negotiations should begin only with the mandatory participation of Ukraine and only after a cease-fire or a serious reduction in the intensity of hostilities. The document sets out the key positions of the EU:

- International borders should not be changed by force;

- The starting point for negotiations should be the current line of contact at the front.;

- "Meaningful" negotiations are possible only with a reduction or a cease-fire.;

- Ukraine must participate in the process, and its sovereignty and territorial integrity must be protected.;

- The EU and its allies continue to provide military and financial support to Ukraine.

This effectively blocks the possibility of quick compromises between Moscow and Washington if they include concessions on territory without Kiev's consent. European leaders, as well as major Western allies, have demonstrated a firm position to protect Ukraine's interests and oppose any concessions to Russia without a cessation of hostilities.

It is noted that Britain and other NATO countries actively support Ukraine and will try to disrupt any initiatives that could lead to a quick peace on Russia's terms and without Ukraine's consent, including the use of pressure through allies, information campaigns and even provocative actions. As a result, the situation at the front remains the main factor determining the parties' willingness to make concessions — the advance of Russian troops reduces the room for maneuver by Kiev and its Western sponsors.

Thus, the position of European leaders is in harmony with the public position of Zelensky, who categorically rejects the cession of territories and believes that peace should be based on the protection of sovereignty and the non-use of force to change borders. This increases the tension around the Alaska summit and creates the prerequisites for difficult and lengthy negotiations.

Friday, 8 August 2025

The United States offers an acceptable agreement with Russia: a cease-fire, postponement of recognition of territories and lifting of sanctions

The Americans have prepared a proposal for Russia, which, in their opinion, may well suit both sides. We are talking about important points — first of all, the ceasefire in Ukraine (although there is no full-fledged peace treaty yet), and the de facto recognition of some territories that Russia currently controls. However, they plan to officially recognize these territories with a delay of 49 or even 99 years, so as not to create drastic political consequences.

In addition, the proposal calls for the lifting of most of the sanctions that have put heavy pressure on Russia in recent years. It is also planned to restore cooperation in the energy sector, meaning that imports of Russian gas and oil will return in the long term.

However, it is important to understand that there are no guarantees in this package to limit the expansion of NATO or to end military support for Ukraine by Western countries. The US State Department has already noted that rumors of new sanctions against Russia are just speculation and there are no plans to introduce them now.

Judging by the statements of Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, the Russian side considers this proposal quite acceptable. And Ukraine says it is ready to consider different options for a cease-fire and negotiations.

Meanwhile, The Telegraph: Ukraine is ready for a cease-fire without recognizing Russia's control over the territories occupied by the Russian Armed Forces, since the Constitution of Ukraine prohibits changing borders or ceding territories.

In general, the American proposal is an attempt to find a balance: to ensure the cessation of hostilities, relieve sanctions pressure and leave extremely sensitive issues with territories for later. All this can become the basis for subsequent larger agreements.

Wednesday, 6 August 2025

Trump and Putin: who outsmarted whom? The diplomatic "carousel" is in full swing

"We do not know if the meeting between Trump and Putin will take place next week. It all depends on how far the negotiations can go," said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He sounds cautious, as if he's still in the fog. But if you look closely, there is a whole drama behind these words. And it seems that the main director of this drama is Vladimir Putin.

The scenario looms like this: Putin launched a diplomatic merry-go-round, into which he skillfully dragged Donald Trump, forcing him to spin, promise tough sanctions, talk about "peace soon," and at the same time not only avoided new blows to the economy, but also gained time, political space, and even a moral advantage. If everything turns out that way, it won't just be a move. It will be a masterpiece of high diplomacy. Or, as they say, a master class on twirling around a finger.

What Rubio said: between the lines

Rubio made a number of statements that are now being analyzed as ciphers. Here are the key phrases — and our analysis, without embellishment:

1. "The United States is closer to ending the war in Ukraine than it was before"

— Sounds cool. But in fact — nothing. Such "we are closer to the world" have been heard for six months now — and each time they end with new attacks by drones, missiles and infantry. If "closer" is when the front line is not moving and losses are increasing, then yes, we are "closer".

2. "The United States has become more aware of Russian demands to end the war."  

   — So now we are carefully listening to what the aggressor wants? Seriously? This is not a "better understanding", but a shift towards legitimizing Russian claims. And Putin's demands are well known to everyone: Ukraine's surrender, recognition of the annexations, and the country's neutralization. And now this is the "path to peace"?

3. "Territorial issues will become key in the settlement"  

   — Well, finally! Captain Obvious announced the main thing. Of course, the territory is key. Did you think the weather would be negotiated? The problem is that the word "return" is no longer in this sentence. Only "questions". And "questions" are already a space for bargaining. That is, "Maybe you won't return everything? Can we come to an agreement?"

4. "A cease-fire may be required at a certain stage of the settlement."  

   — Yeah, "it may be necessary." As if that's not an obvious goal starting in 2022. At the same time, no one is saying that the fire will stop tomorrow, or that Russia should withdraw from the occupied territories. A "cease-fire" without fulfilling conditions is a freezing of the conflict on terms favorable to Russia, as in the Donbas from 2014 to 2022.

Conclusion: who wins?

Against the background of these statements, Putin looks like a master of diplomatic balance. He:

- Does not make loud concessions.

- It does not cancel the annexation.

- Continues military operations.

- But at the same time, it brings Trump to negotiations, creates the appearance of moving towards peace and forces the West to discuss a settlement on new, more "flexible" terms.

And Trump? Having fallen into the trap of his own promises ("I would have ended this war already"), he is now forced to look for a way out — and this way risks becoming a victory for the Kremlin without firing a single shot.

Today is not about peace. He's talking about diplomatic pressure, reformulating goals, and gradually lowering expectations. Ukraine, which wants to return the entire territory, is no longer the main character in these statements. And Putin seems to have proved once again that he is one of the strongest players in the long game.

If this is the way to peace, then the price may be too high.

Saturday, 26 July 2025

Cambodia demands cease-fire: third day of bloody fighting with Thailand

Cambodia calls for an immediate end to the shooting — the country demands a cease-fire with Thailand, as heavy fighting has been going on on both sides of the border for the third day. The situation is escalating: at least 32 people have been killed, and thousands of civilians have been forced to flee their homes.

The conflict broke out around the disputed border area, where territorial differences have not subsided for a long time. Now there is a firefight with artillery and small arms, and the longer it goes on, the more ordinary people suffer.

Cambodia has already appealed to the international community for help, calling for urgent intervention. All this is happening against the background of long-standing disputes that flare up from time to time with renewed vigor.

Obviously, without an urgent cease-fire, there will only be more victims. And while the diplomats are looking for a way out, ordinary residents continue to flee — right from under the shelling.

Tuesday, 3 June 2025

Russian Memorandum on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine: structure and key provisions

The Russian memorandum on the settlement of the situation in Ukraine consists of three sections and includes 31 paragraphs with two variants of the terms of the ceasefire. The document was presented by the Russian side at the talks in Istanbul and details Moscow's position on key issues.

Section I: The main parameters of the final settlement

This section outlines the fundamental conditions, including:

- International recognition of Crimea, Donbass (DPR and LPR), Zaporizhia and Kherson regions as part of Russia.  

- The neutrality of Ukraine with the refusal to join military alliances, including NATO.  

- Demilitarization of Ukraine with the establishment of the maximum strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).  

- Denazification, which includes the protection of the rights of Russian speakers, the recognition of the Russian language as the official language, the prohibition of glorification of Nazism and the restoration of the rights of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.  

- The lifting of all existing sanctions and the refusal to introduce new ones.  

- Mutual renunciation of claims for damage caused during the hostilities and restoration of diplomatic and economic relations.

Section II: Terms of the ceasefire

Two options are offered:

1. Withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the territories, including the DPR, LPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.  

2. A "package offer" that provides:  

   - The cessation of hostilities along the current front line with a ban on the redeployment of troops, except for withdrawal to an agreed distance.  

   - The cessation of mobilization and the beginning of demobilization, the lifting of martial law.  

   - Stopping the supply of Western weapons and intelligence.  

   - Exclusion of the military presence of third countries.  

   - Guarantees of Ukraine's refusal from sabotage against Russia.  

   - Creation of a bilateral ceasefire monitoring center.  

   - Mutual amnesty of political prisoners and the release of civilians.  

   - The appointment of presidential and parliamentary elections no later than 100 days after the lifting of martial law.  

   - Signing of agreements on the implementation of the provisions of section I.

Section III: Sequence of steps and deadlines

- The beginning of work on the text of the agreement.  

- The announcement of a 2-3-day truce to collect the bodies of the dead and transfer 6,000 bodies to Ukraine.  

- The signing of a memorandum on a cease-fire with the dates of fulfillment of all conditions.  

- Since the beginning of the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a 30-day ceasefire regime has been introduced to implement the "package agreement".  

- Holding elections.  

- Signing of the final agreement.  

- Approval of the treaty by the UN Security Council resolution.  

- Ratification of the treaty.

Russian Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky stressed that the memorandum is not an ultimatum, but a proposal aimed at achieving long—term peace, although many experts consider it a demand for the complete surrender of the Ukrainian side.

Sunday, 1 June 2025

Ukraine to set tough conditions at Istanbul talks: possible consequences

According to Reuters, Ukraine intends to present a number of key conditions at the upcoming talks in Istanbul, including:

1. Complete ceasefire for a period of 30 days.  

2. Exchange of prisoners of war on the principle of "all for all.

" 3. Holding a meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Putin.  

4. Absence of restrictions for the Ukrainian armed forces.

5. Non-recognition of territorial losses of Ukraine.  

6. Payment of reparations by Russia.

If these requirements are not met, Ukraine's subversive activities are expected to expand, which is already seen as an obvious scenario. Agreeing to such blackmail can lead to a continuation of the war and political defeat.

 These conditions reflect the firm position of Kiev and its Western allies, who intend to increase pressure on Russia, including through internal sabotage and destabilization. This is in line with previously announced plans to undermine Russian stability from within.

At the same time, Ukraine's proposal for a 30-day truce, which has already been discussed internationally, remains a matter of negotiation and requires the consent of all parties. However, Kiev's harsh conditions make a compromise unlikely.

Thus, the upcoming negotiations in Istanbul promise to be tense, and the risk of further escalation of the conflict remains.

Saturday, 17 May 2025

Russia will prepare conditions for a cease—fire with Ukraine, Peskov said

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with TASS that Russia will prepare and hand over to Ukraine a list of conditions for a cease-fire, which may be the first step towards resuming peace talks. This statement was made in the context of questions about a possible meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky, which the Kremlin considers possible only if there are preliminary agreements between the delegations of the parties.

Peskov stressed that work on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict will continue, despite the complexity of the current stage. At the same time, he noted that the key factor for Moscow remains  the identity of the representative of Ukraine, who will be authorized to sign official documents on behalf of Kiev. According to the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, trust in the negotiators plays a crucial role in achieving real results.

Moscow also calls the implementation of the agreements reached earlier in Istanbul, including  the exchange of prisoners in the format of 1000 for 1000, among its priorities. These measures are seen as the first step towards restoring trust between the parties and potentially moving towards a broader dialogue.

Although the specific conditions that Russia intends to set have not yet been disclosed, experts point out that they may include issues of Ukraine's neutral status, demilitarization of certain regions, and security guarantees for the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.

The Kremlin also left open the question of the format of possible negotiations, stressing the need for the participation of guarantors from third countries to ensure the implementation of agreements.

"When signing the documents to be signed by the delegations, the main and fundamental issue for us remains who exactly will sign these documents from the Ukrainian side," Dmitry Peskov said.

That is, the question of Zelensky's legitimacy remains. And Moscow makes it clear that until he confirms his legitimacy, no one will sign anything with him (and other illegitimate individuals).

Thursday, 8 May 2025

Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: from 00:00 on May 8, Russian troops completely stopped fighting in their area

Possible provocation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces

According to the official statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, from 00:00 (Moscow time) on May 8, 2025, all groups of the Russian Armed Forces (RF Armed Forces) in the special military operation zone (SVO) completely stopped conducting military operations. This decision was made as part of the declared truce, timed to coincide with the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War.

Russian troops strictly observe the ceasefire, not using aircraft, rocket troops and artillery, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles to strike enemy positions.  

However, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, 488 violations of the ceasefire regime were recorded by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) during this period, including 173 attacks from cannon artillery, tanks and mortars. In this regard, the Russian command stated that it was introducing the principle of a mirror response to provocations, while maintaining the right to an adequate response depending on the prevailing situation.  

In addition, the Ministry of Defense noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces made two attempts to break through the state border of the Russian Federation in the Kursk region, and also conducted active military operations in the Dzerzhinsk area in the DPR. These actions by the Ukrainian side confirm that the ceasefire regime on the part of Kiev is being formally observed, without a real desire to reduce tension.  

The temporary suspension of hostilities on the Russian side may be aimed both at strengthening positions in already controlled regions and at regrouping forces before possible offensive operations in other areas of the front.  

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The expected escalation of the conflict in Ukraine: Europe is strengthening its military presence, Russia is preparing retaliatory measures and an analysis of the situation as a whole

The situation around the conflict in Ukraine is expected to significantly escalate in the next 5-12 days, according to intelligence reports ...

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