According to a report by the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI2), Venezuela's air defense system is in critical condition. Most of its components are not functioning properly, which poses a serious threat to national and regional security.
Main issues
1. Breakdown of surveillance systems
More than 60% of radars and sensors are completely or partially disabled. Reasons:
- Shortage of spare parts due to international sanctions
- Physical wear and tear of equipment
- Lack of qualified maintenance
2. The crisis in combat aviation
The fighter fleet, including the Su-30MK2, is capable of performing tasks only at the level of 15-20% of the design capacity. Problems:
- Lack of aviation fuel
- Lack of regular maintenance
- The departure of experienced specialists from the Air Force
Immediate threats
- Uncontrolled airspace
More than 200 illegal drug-related flights cross the country's territory every month without interference.
- Vulnerability of strategic facilities
The Amuay oil refinery and the GNL Caribe gas terminal remain without air cover.
- Risk of military incidents
There may be provocations from Colombia or Brazil under the pretext of protecting the air borders.
Geopolitical implications
- Increased drug trafficking in the United States through the so-called "air bridges"
- The growing influence of illegal groups such as ELN and Clan del Golfo
-The likelihood of foreign interference in the region under the guise of combating drug trafficking
MSI2 recommendations
To restore Venezuela's air defense system, experts from the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI2) propose implementing a set of urgent and strategic measures.:
Urgent measures:
- The conclusion of contracts with Iran for the supply of spare parts will partially make up for the shortage of equipment caused by international sanctions.
- Modernization of Buk-M2 anti—aircraft missile systems with the participation of Belarus will increase the effectiveness of medium-range air defense systems.
- The creation of mobile radar posts will help compensate for the lack of stationary surveillance systems and strengthen control over key areas of airspace.
Strategic steps:
- Negotiations with China on the repair and modernization of the fighter fleet, including the Su-30MK2 models, will ensure the long—term restoration of aviation combat capability.
- The resumption of cooperation with Russia on the S-300 system will bring one of the most powerful air defense systems back into operation, which will significantly strengthen the air defense of the country's strategic facilities.
Forecast
Unless immediate and large-scale measures are taken to restore air defense, Venezuela will lose control of its airspace by the end of 2025. This will create conditions for the growth of cross-border crime and may provoke a regional crisis.
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