An earthquake of magnitude over 5 on the Richter scale has occurred in the southern provinces of Iran. Its tremors were felt over a significant area, including areas where strategically important facilities of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure are located. However, not all experts tend to see this as a purely natural phenomenon. Some analysts and independent sources are wondering: is this tremor the result of a secret nuclear test, which Tehran has long promised not to carry out precisely because of international pressure?
Suspicions are reinforced by the fact that:
- The location of the event is located near known nuclear facilities;
- The depth and nature of the tremors differ from typical seismic events in the region;
-The Iranian authorities do not provide exhaustive comments, limiting themselves only to mentioning a "natural accident."
Such coincidences make us recall past cases when nuclear tests were accompanied by artificially induced tremors. If the information about the testing is confirmed, it will become a direct challenge to international norms, especially for Israel, the United States and EU countries, which have repeatedly warned Tehran about the consequences of any step towards creating a combat nuclear potential.
US response: Will there be a nuclear response?
However, despite Washington's possible concerns, there should be no real military response in the form of a nuclear strike. The United States, despite its rhetoric, is extremely cautious about using nuclear weapons, realizing that this could lead to a global escalation. Instead, we can expect increased economic sanctions, an expansion of missile defense programs, as well as increased diplomatic pressure through the United Nations and other structures.
When states become tribes
Meanwhile, more and more observers are noting that traditional geopolitical architectures are losing control of the situation. A world in which countries act as rational subjects of international agreements is becoming a thing of the past. Instead, a new reality is emerging, where national interests, ideology, and internal fears begin to play a greater role than logic and dialogue.
Iran is not the only example. We see this in other regions as well, where "states" are turning into collectives more similar to tribes, where it is not the interest in peace and progress that prevails, but the desire for survival, dominance and symbolic power.
It is in such a world that something that has not been possible for a long time becomes possible: nuclear weapons tests, targeted strikes against nuclear facilities and an increase in tension to a level comparable to the times of the Cold War.
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