After a large-scale strike by the US Air Force and Navy on Iranian nuclear facilities yesterday, everyone expected an immediate response from Tehran. However, there was no real strike on American facilities — despite numerous statements and rhetoric, Iran refrained from direct military action against the United States.
Why Tehran's silence is the right step
- Minimizing damage to the United States: Iran understands that limited strikes on American facilities will not cause significant damage and will only give rise to a large-scale US military response.
- Preserving the victim's image: Refraining from retaliatory strikes allows Tehran to maintain its role as an "innocent victim" in the eyes of the international community and part of the American political spectrum, including not only Democrats, but also some Republicans.
- Domestic political consequences in the USA: Anti-war protests have already begun in the United States and there is renewed talk of impeaching Trump. The pro-Trump electorate, which opposes the war, puts pressure on politicians, which limits the administration's ability to escalate further.
The reaction of the USA and Israel
For Americans, the situation turned out to be unpleasant and even insulting — they are used to using others to their advantage, but they themselves turned out to be "used" in this conflict, which causes alarm and discontent. Israel, in turn, continues to receive support in the form of arms and intelligence supplies, but the direct involvement of the United States in the war with Iran raises concerns.
Prospects for conflict development
If Iran continues to hold back, further U.S. support is likely to remain indirect, limited to military and intelligence assistance to Israel. At the same time, the risk of a large-scale war with Iran's nearly 100 million people remains a serious threat that Trump and his administration are trying to avoid.
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