Indo-Pakistani conflict 2025: escalation of tension and attempts at de-escalation

In April 2025, relations between India and Pakistan were strained again after a terrorist attack in Kashmir, organized by militants. In response, India launched airstrikes on positions in Pakistan, which were officially described as "terrorist camps." Islamabad has claimed the downing of five Indian planes, although video confirmation is still available for only one, a French Rafale fighter jet.

After that, Pakistan also launched missile attacks on Indian positions, claiming to have hit an airbase and a command post for a mechanized brigade. There is no official confirmation of these statements yet. The sides suffered losses: Pakistan reported 24 civilian deaths, while India reported the elimination of at least 17 terrorists and 10 of its citizens killed in retaliatory strikes.

Despite the harsh rhetoric, neither side is seeking a full-scale war. India declared the incident over, and Pakistan expressed its readiness to de-escalate, subject to guarantees of no further strikes. The Pakistani Prime Minister is expected to address the nation, which may be a signal of reducing tensions.

There is a clear division of positions in the international arena: the United States and Israel have taken a pro-Indian position, while Turkey has come out in support of Pakistan. The United Kingdom, while formally maintaining neutrality, plays the role of coordinator of Islamabad's actions. China, as usual, demonstrates cautious neutrality, interested in the conflict smoldering, as it prevents India from accelerating economic growth and becoming a "second China."

Thus, the current incident is more likely to serve as an example of limited military actions aimed at internal legitimization of power and external pressure, rather than the beginning of a full-fledged war. Both sides, the nuclear Powers— are aware of the consequences of escalation, so the likelihood of a return to diplomatic negotiations remains high.