Change is coming.
In this case, the changes are not necessarily negative. In some areas - in particular, in Russia, they can also be positive - or the situation, more or less, remain in the old framework. But it is from the perspective of the global economic system transformation is inevitable. Chances to survive in the same capacity until 2020 is not at all. Not a single cent. Perhaps ppm vapor still present, but I would be in this situation and did not put a can of beer.- Author, you escalate again? Zadolbali you have your Yellowstone. Why did not he explode?- Explodes, unfortunately. But the trouble is that the Yellow Stone - this is only part of the picture. Small part of it. Everything is much worse. Options to stand in today's civilization there. It will not go away (I hope), but she began to degenerate into something new. Like a caterpillar into a butterfly. And the stage of the "cocoon" can be very painful. Yellowstone - it's just one of the ways of force majeure, accelerating the collapse of several months and making it partially controlled, triggering a long chain of events that can be calculated (especially when the CA is known to undermine the date) ... a new type of creative process undermining, of course, It does not help, but scrapped the old system will make it more "civilized". Neither you war, no malice, it happened malyata, no one has done nothing wrong ... Plus factor of a giant volcano with a very unpleasant uncertainty would be "liquidated" in a relatively soft format ...The author knows that control is impossible kalderry explosion, ash, lava, sulfuric acid - is not about that. Monitor and do not need to - you need to relax. Who wants to detail - there are discussions on the previous articles.As for the autumn and Yellowstone - yes, there is prepared to undermine. It does not follow that the charge will certainly activated. From the army of concentration on the border should not be mandatory invasion. Only his planning and opportunity. But for all of us is better that the abscess burst in this way. The alternative is more dangerous. (Yes, yes, I have not made a reservation ... There is much more stringent scenario, the required Western elites to force majeure ...).Why force majeure do not need our own, as will become clear. In short - we will surely win without repeating.Of course, this is just an opinion of the author, but I was his opinion and express. And distinct arguments against this hypothesis did not wait for the year. Well, except that the "Yellowstone is nonsense, that it is not necessary to comment on." can be anything close to the root) With hateful indulgence share))).Below I will list the main perspectives of the current crisis. They are usually treated separately. Social, energy, demographic, resource ... It is easier, more enjoyable, and even a sort of right - the question becomes more flat and clear. The trouble is that in reality the problems are intertwined and flow into each other, as a system of communicating vessels. For example, the gasoline shortage is offset by biofuels, affecting the volume of food. Extraction of shale dry well of fresh water, and so on. In the reality of the crisis alone.He has a lot of faces, almost all of which is capable of destroying civilization. And when we look at these faces individually, like as there are still options. Brain priori implies that all is well in the other something directions. Or at least acceptable. In fact, the resources were transferred from one place to another is weak and rotten everywhere. 'Civilization' system is not too bulging out of a total number of resources - important specialists, energy, technology, management systems, payment systems (finance), arable land, fresh water, metal ores ... Now it's time to reduce the excess, not engaged in the production chains of the population . Abstract people are not interested in the system. And never interested in what you have tales told at night. Features "procrastination" practically exhausted, it's time.And now - for details.We live in a very orderly world. Chaos brought under control at all levels - at the cellular level, at the human level (cultural activities of society), at the level of states (and corporations). Orderliness creates a host of additional product which individual families do not get - the productivity of labor is completely different. Behavioral patterns sharpened on cooperation. So it should be. But where did all the problems of the last few years?What prevents simple to operate and trade?What is the deeper meaning of the problem? Where is the crisis, upon which all - or nearly all of today's difficulties? The civil war in Ukraine, a slowdown in China, shale pollution in the United States, the dominance of GMOs in Europe ... The cornerstone, so to speak?International law Screw in the rectal area ... Crumbling morality and education. Family and patriotism outlawed (there, fag - and because everyone knows where it is ...). Volcano, as well as other geological troubles are only the "appendage" to the systemic problems of mankind. Yes, there are even more serious things - although less urgent - and about them at the time we talk also.The proposed perspective today - energy.A Brief Introduction.Any living organism (and the "crown of creation" in this aspect is no different from the rat) is a bundle of energy and matter. He carries in his genes information to the system (and the body is the cell system), under certain conditions, self-replicate. From this point of view it makes sense to consider only the community of organisms capable of procreation. A single turtle, 300 years of living on the island, or ant izdohshy three hours, would not give offspring and irrelevant. I mean, we are interested in the population of turtles or an anthill.Getting in favorable conditions, all living organisms behave similarly.They breed - quickly and without any action.Tom thousands of examples - and on a global scale, and on individual continents, islands, plateaus, and other limited habitats ... If there is no natural barriers, no predators - comes Explosive population growth appears numeric (power) giant - eaten away food supply - and, on the sad end, followed by a sharp decline. Sometimes (often) the type completely disappears.Especially not cite examples, I am sure that readers know them in the set. Nothing new here. Simply - I pay attention to the angle.What is the standard of the food chain was beat people? He now dominates the planet. Or is it just my imagination? For example, termites for every person on Earth has to kilo one hundred and fifty - two hundred. These guys smaller ants (think for the amount) and is unlikely to know of our existence with you. Especially because they are blind. They existed on this planet for many millions of years before man, and in a sad scenario for us, there will be after ...No, that's fair. Man dominates. Termites are small, the food supply have appropriate and in food chains there is a clear numerical patterns, which take into account body weight ... Whales, for obvious reasons, less than plankton crustaceans, but "who eats who" obviously. Food chain, strictly speaking, the chains are not - it is the food pyramid, on top of which are dominant, successful organisms. (This does not mean that your niche is not successful in the intermediate, is quite stable levels of the structure. And the real circuit is far from rigid geometry. But the essence of correspondence).So, the number of people is more than the calculated number of these laws by almost 5 orders of magnitude. The "big ape" format people - throughout the world - corresponds to the number of a hundred - a hundred and fifty thousand. Several thousand representatives of today's stone age until now and lives - in perfect harmony with nature ... In the jungles of the Amazon, for example ... The others tasted the fruits of civilization.Today, people in nearly a hundred thousand times more than "assumed". In the same niche we dragged "our younger brothers" - cows, chickens, sheep, cats and other domestics pigeons living with us in various forms of symbiosis.This success, gentlemen. And how can such a thing possible?Well, in the first person and learned the rudiments of society driven hunt. Although he is not far away from other predators schooling.Then, (forgive me alternate, conventional numbering), I began to use fire, and various implements, repeatedly reinforcing the hairy hand of his own. Stone ax carries the muscular energy of exactly benevolent opponent, telling him in various delicate intricacies.Poraskinuv brains, all sorts of cave bears have recognized our ancestor dominant predator. The same goes for the spear, onions and other Boomerang. Address, impact energy delivery destroying competing organisms, and deep-fried pieces of flesh (lumps of foreign systems) were superb, the protein material for the construction of his own flesh. It has been a breakthrough, there is time to relax, lie down and ponder ...And one day, some of the women-gatherers caught the connection between grain and wakes up again sprouted grains ...The man began to grow their own food. Without this step, we have been waiting for the unenviable fate of the Australian Aborigines. Those hunted too bad at the time, and happily ate all the large animals of their continent. All large kangaroo - a marsupial giants was enough. For example, wombats - not today's shrew, and the ancient, far-ton, marsupials hippos. Megalania, meyolanii, giant kangaroos - and other exotic beauties who wore a tasty energy and SOZHRANYE settled in Australia, the man behind the funny period of a couple of centuries ... At some time the families of skilled hunters have increased dramatically in number. Then it's time to fall - and jump in rats and maggots. The settlements of primitive hunters (and there were villages) have withered and disappeared.In Europe and America it took place about the same. Woolly rhinoceros, giant deer, mammoths, bison, bison - the last lucky to have survived, but the hamster them as well.Starting with the largest and most delicious. It seems that the future of their "ox", "buffalo" and "horses" Indians and Australians have just eaten.In this first still somehow managed to seize the farming, and the last (and Fuegians) remained in the blessed "harmony with nature", in full agreement with the theory of systems of sliding on the lower level - after a brief, not who had gone for the future of abundance ...Then, in the majority of nations came another breakthrough. Even not so.BREAKTHROUGH.It was invented by the state.And it's not just the increased productivity of labor - that is, of course, very important.This is the same energy (food, if you want), the pyramid, which mankind rebuilt the right within their own species.Divided into "predators" and "herbivore".That did not think about any wolves or giant dragonfly (once were, devoured everything that moved and flutters), nor any other candidates for the beginnings of society and planetary domination. Here people really stood out from all the other animals (except for social insects, these small creatures blinded about the same).From this point on any cataclysms LONGER threatens humanity as a species. They threatened the food pyramid, which it is rebuilt - FROM SLAVE TO PHARAOH.The higher a person's position in society, the greater its energy available - in one form or another. This home comfort, and safety fondovooruzhёnnost. Social structure from time to time scattered, and the device was corrected. Plague, war, natural disasters, slave revolt ... But such a structure laid monstrous margin (current tests are not an exception), and restored it as a phoenix - society is deeply ingrained in all of us, allowing to organize themselves ...From the point of view of the theory of systems all will be well. Our species survives.From the perspective of the individual layers of the pyramid and the individual territories in which humanity now lives, the number of adjustment is inevitable.Then I went gradual, very slow growth. Slowly run in technology, expanded the territory ... And then, about a hundred and fifty years ago, people learned to use oil. Woven into its technological chain of coal energy, gas, gold and black. We got mad energy bonus. Barrel (Oil Barrel) concentrates the more energy-intensive than working person spends in a year.Adult, physical development - for example, Digger (4000 calories). Today, our civilization run billions of slaves, who were sitting in the dungeon "oil jinn", who perform desire to free their people and disappear.Having such a fantastic power over nature, people behaved exactly as well as the Australian rabbits, increasing its population is about ten times. Of course, with some differences intelligent being - he dirtied the environment, destroyed a lot of plants and animals, honed ways of self-destruction, and practice on the subject in two world wars.And 150 years devour EVERYTHING. ALL the food base. Water, oil, rare earth, arable land, education resources (this is also a resource) and the financial system ... With gas and coal slightly easier (there are a couple of decades - but they do not keep the technological chains). Just - break through elsewhere.Defining resource - petroleum.And the bonus is exhausted. No kidding and options. Peak oil passed in 2012.Again. Today, the traditional food pyramid the natural balance of organisms to humans skewed a hundred thousand times. It is not in equilibrium. Instability. The balance is maintained in a situation of "do not sway" and civilizing numerous bells and whistles that prop up the shaky structure, not allowing one to fall apart. For example, the medicine carefully saves all infants, even with chronic diseases of the gene pool by selecting the salvation of an individual's life - and illness, breeding, leaves the roots of the nation further.If the body wants to be healthy, it does not have to fight for each of his cell. Nails, for example, and you can shave. If he chooses its priorities "human rights" - ugh, a single cell, the result of these individual cells and collapse. In the form of a corpse, of course. And - serve food scavengers. Exactly the same with the state and the people. In mathematical terms there is no difference. And scavengers, including in its structure fragments, resources, experts lounging systems (empires), also exist.One of the main pillars holding our nonequilibrium pyramid of the total number of people - OIL. Permanent, gratuitous powerful inflow of energy (no matter how much it costs in the green pieces of paper, it's a freebie for the actual economy). Today this inflow ends.Chronic stable structure (pyramid Roly-Poly) has long been a chronically unstable, something like a gyroscope that balance is spinning ... Roughly the same thing happens at the level of all the big cities with their computerized control and overloaded supply routes, they are now enormously dependent on electricity and this dependence is growing the last twenty years. Sustainability is becoming increasingly shaky. Any serious negative factor not only is the situation, and starts a chain reaction of generating one other impairments, the system breaks down (if there is no external positive inflows, as in New Orleans after Katrina ...).
In this case, the changes are not necessarily negative. In some areas - in particular, in Russia, they can also be positive - or the situation, more or less, remain in the old framework. But it is from the perspective of the global economic system transformation is inevitable. Chances to survive in the same capacity until 2020 is not at all. Not a single cent. Perhaps ppm vapor still present, but I would be in this situation and did not put a can of beer.- Author, you escalate again? Zadolbali you have your Yellowstone. Why did not he explode?- Explodes, unfortunately. But the trouble is that the Yellow Stone - this is only part of the picture. Small part of it. Everything is much worse. Options to stand in today's civilization there. It will not go away (I hope), but she began to degenerate into something new. Like a caterpillar into a butterfly. And the stage of the "cocoon" can be very painful. Yellowstone - it's just one of the ways of force majeure, accelerating the collapse of several months and making it partially controlled, triggering a long chain of events that can be calculated (especially when the CA is known to undermine the date) ... a new type of creative process undermining, of course, It does not help, but scrapped the old system will make it more "civilized". Neither you war, no malice, it happened malyata, no one has done nothing wrong ... Plus factor of a giant volcano with a very unpleasant uncertainty would be "liquidated" in a relatively soft format ...The author knows that control is impossible kalderry explosion, ash, lava, sulfuric acid - is not about that. Monitor and do not need to - you need to relax. Who wants to detail - there are discussions on the previous articles.As for the autumn and Yellowstone - yes, there is prepared to undermine. It does not follow that the charge will certainly activated. From the army of concentration on the border should not be mandatory invasion. Only his planning and opportunity. But for all of us is better that the abscess burst in this way. The alternative is more dangerous. (Yes, yes, I have not made a reservation ... There is much more stringent scenario, the required Western elites to force majeure ...).Why force majeure do not need our own, as will become clear. In short - we will surely win without repeating.Of course, this is just an opinion of the author, but I was his opinion and express. And distinct arguments against this hypothesis did not wait for the year. Well, except that the "Yellowstone is nonsense, that it is not necessary to comment on." can be anything close to the root) With hateful indulgence share))).Below I will list the main perspectives of the current crisis. They are usually treated separately. Social, energy, demographic, resource ... It is easier, more enjoyable, and even a sort of right - the question becomes more flat and clear. The trouble is that in reality the problems are intertwined and flow into each other, as a system of communicating vessels. For example, the gasoline shortage is offset by biofuels, affecting the volume of food. Extraction of shale dry well of fresh water, and so on. In the reality of the crisis alone.He has a lot of faces, almost all of which is capable of destroying civilization. And when we look at these faces individually, like as there are still options. Brain priori implies that all is well in the other something directions. Or at least acceptable. In fact, the resources were transferred from one place to another is weak and rotten everywhere. 'Civilization' system is not too bulging out of a total number of resources - important specialists, energy, technology, management systems, payment systems (finance), arable land, fresh water, metal ores ... Now it's time to reduce the excess, not engaged in the production chains of the population . Abstract people are not interested in the system. And never interested in what you have tales told at night. Features "procrastination" practically exhausted, it's time.And now - for details.We live in a very orderly world. Chaos brought under control at all levels - at the cellular level, at the human level (cultural activities of society), at the level of states (and corporations). Orderliness creates a host of additional product which individual families do not get - the productivity of labor is completely different. Behavioral patterns sharpened on cooperation. So it should be. But where did all the problems of the last few years?What prevents simple to operate and trade?What is the deeper meaning of the problem? Where is the crisis, upon which all - or nearly all of today's difficulties? The civil war in Ukraine, a slowdown in China, shale pollution in the United States, the dominance of GMOs in Europe ... The cornerstone, so to speak?International law Screw in the rectal area ... Crumbling morality and education. Family and patriotism outlawed (there, fag - and because everyone knows where it is ...). Volcano, as well as other geological troubles are only the "appendage" to the systemic problems of mankind. Yes, there are even more serious things - although less urgent - and about them at the time we talk also.The proposed perspective today - energy.A Brief Introduction.Any living organism (and the "crown of creation" in this aspect is no different from the rat) is a bundle of energy and matter. He carries in his genes information to the system (and the body is the cell system), under certain conditions, self-replicate. From this point of view it makes sense to consider only the community of organisms capable of procreation. A single turtle, 300 years of living on the island, or ant izdohshy three hours, would not give offspring and irrelevant. I mean, we are interested in the population of turtles or an anthill.Getting in favorable conditions, all living organisms behave similarly.They breed - quickly and without any action.Tom thousands of examples - and on a global scale, and on individual continents, islands, plateaus, and other limited habitats ... If there is no natural barriers, no predators - comes Explosive population growth appears numeric (power) giant - eaten away food supply - and, on the sad end, followed by a sharp decline. Sometimes (often) the type completely disappears.Especially not cite examples, I am sure that readers know them in the set. Nothing new here. Simply - I pay attention to the angle.What is the standard of the food chain was beat people? He now dominates the planet. Or is it just my imagination? For example, termites for every person on Earth has to kilo one hundred and fifty - two hundred. These guys smaller ants (think for the amount) and is unlikely to know of our existence with you. Especially because they are blind. They existed on this planet for many millions of years before man, and in a sad scenario for us, there will be after ...No, that's fair. Man dominates. Termites are small, the food supply have appropriate and in food chains there is a clear numerical patterns, which take into account body weight ... Whales, for obvious reasons, less than plankton crustaceans, but "who eats who" obviously. Food chain, strictly speaking, the chains are not - it is the food pyramid, on top of which are dominant, successful organisms. (This does not mean that your niche is not successful in the intermediate, is quite stable levels of the structure. And the real circuit is far from rigid geometry. But the essence of correspondence).So, the number of people is more than the calculated number of these laws by almost 5 orders of magnitude. The "big ape" format people - throughout the world - corresponds to the number of a hundred - a hundred and fifty thousand. Several thousand representatives of today's stone age until now and lives - in perfect harmony with nature ... In the jungles of the Amazon, for example ... The others tasted the fruits of civilization.Today, people in nearly a hundred thousand times more than "assumed". In the same niche we dragged "our younger brothers" - cows, chickens, sheep, cats and other domestics pigeons living with us in various forms of symbiosis.This success, gentlemen. And how can such a thing possible?Well, in the first person and learned the rudiments of society driven hunt. Although he is not far away from other predators schooling.Then, (forgive me alternate, conventional numbering), I began to use fire, and various implements, repeatedly reinforcing the hairy hand of his own. Stone ax carries the muscular energy of exactly benevolent opponent, telling him in various delicate intricacies.Poraskinuv brains, all sorts of cave bears have recognized our ancestor dominant predator. The same goes for the spear, onions and other Boomerang. Address, impact energy delivery destroying competing organisms, and deep-fried pieces of flesh (lumps of foreign systems) were superb, the protein material for the construction of his own flesh. It has been a breakthrough, there is time to relax, lie down and ponder ...And one day, some of the women-gatherers caught the connection between grain and wakes up again sprouted grains ...The man began to grow their own food. Without this step, we have been waiting for the unenviable fate of the Australian Aborigines. Those hunted too bad at the time, and happily ate all the large animals of their continent. All large kangaroo - a marsupial giants was enough. For example, wombats - not today's shrew, and the ancient, far-ton, marsupials hippos. Megalania, meyolanii, giant kangaroos - and other exotic beauties who wore a tasty energy and SOZHRANYE settled in Australia, the man behind the funny period of a couple of centuries ... At some time the families of skilled hunters have increased dramatically in number. Then it's time to fall - and jump in rats and maggots. The settlements of primitive hunters (and there were villages) have withered and disappeared.In Europe and America it took place about the same. Woolly rhinoceros, giant deer, mammoths, bison, bison - the last lucky to have survived, but the hamster them as well.Starting with the largest and most delicious. It seems that the future of their "ox", "buffalo" and "horses" Indians and Australians have just eaten.In this first still somehow managed to seize the farming, and the last (and Fuegians) remained in the blessed "harmony with nature", in full agreement with the theory of systems of sliding on the lower level - after a brief, not who had gone for the future of abundance ...Then, in the majority of nations came another breakthrough. Even not so.BREAKTHROUGH.It was invented by the state.And it's not just the increased productivity of labor - that is, of course, very important.This is the same energy (food, if you want), the pyramid, which mankind rebuilt the right within their own species.Divided into "predators" and "herbivore".That did not think about any wolves or giant dragonfly (once were, devoured everything that moved and flutters), nor any other candidates for the beginnings of society and planetary domination. Here people really stood out from all the other animals (except for social insects, these small creatures blinded about the same).From this point on any cataclysms LONGER threatens humanity as a species. They threatened the food pyramid, which it is rebuilt - FROM SLAVE TO PHARAOH.The higher a person's position in society, the greater its energy available - in one form or another. This home comfort, and safety fondovooruzhёnnost. Social structure from time to time scattered, and the device was corrected. Plague, war, natural disasters, slave revolt ... But such a structure laid monstrous margin (current tests are not an exception), and restored it as a phoenix - society is deeply ingrained in all of us, allowing to organize themselves ...From the point of view of the theory of systems all will be well. Our species survives.From the perspective of the individual layers of the pyramid and the individual territories in which humanity now lives, the number of adjustment is inevitable.Then I went gradual, very slow growth. Slowly run in technology, expanded the territory ... And then, about a hundred and fifty years ago, people learned to use oil. Woven into its technological chain of coal energy, gas, gold and black. We got mad energy bonus. Barrel (Oil Barrel) concentrates the more energy-intensive than working person spends in a year.Adult, physical development - for example, Digger (4000 calories). Today, our civilization run billions of slaves, who were sitting in the dungeon "oil jinn", who perform desire to free their people and disappear.Having such a fantastic power over nature, people behaved exactly as well as the Australian rabbits, increasing its population is about ten times. Of course, with some differences intelligent being - he dirtied the environment, destroyed a lot of plants and animals, honed ways of self-destruction, and practice on the subject in two world wars.And 150 years devour EVERYTHING. ALL the food base. Water, oil, rare earth, arable land, education resources (this is also a resource) and the financial system ... With gas and coal slightly easier (there are a couple of decades - but they do not keep the technological chains). Just - break through elsewhere.Defining resource - petroleum.And the bonus is exhausted. No kidding and options. Peak oil passed in 2012.Again. Today, the traditional food pyramid the natural balance of organisms to humans skewed a hundred thousand times. It is not in equilibrium. Instability. The balance is maintained in a situation of "do not sway" and civilizing numerous bells and whistles that prop up the shaky structure, not allowing one to fall apart. For example, the medicine carefully saves all infants, even with chronic diseases of the gene pool by selecting the salvation of an individual's life - and illness, breeding, leaves the roots of the nation further.If the body wants to be healthy, it does not have to fight for each of his cell. Nails, for example, and you can shave. If he chooses its priorities "human rights" - ugh, a single cell, the result of these individual cells and collapse. In the form of a corpse, of course. And - serve food scavengers. Exactly the same with the state and the people. In mathematical terms there is no difference. And scavengers, including in its structure fragments, resources, experts lounging systems (empires), also exist.One of the main pillars holding our nonequilibrium pyramid of the total number of people - OIL. Permanent, gratuitous powerful inflow of energy (no matter how much it costs in the green pieces of paper, it's a freebie for the actual economy). Today this inflow ends.Chronic stable structure (pyramid Roly-Poly) has long been a chronically unstable, something like a gyroscope that balance is spinning ... Roughly the same thing happens at the level of all the big cities with their computerized control and overloaded supply routes, they are now enormously dependent on electricity and this dependence is growing the last twenty years. Sustainability is becoming increasingly shaky. Any serious negative factor not only is the situation, and starts a chain reaction of generating one other impairments, the system breaks down (if there is no external positive inflows, as in New Orleans after Katrina ...).
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