Introduction: The Nuclear Trigger Before the Summit
On October 29, 2025, Donald Trump announced the United States' intention to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 1992. The statement was made on the eve of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and was accompanied by rhetoric typical of the former president: loud accusations, oversimplified logic, and a hint of inevitability. "I had no choice!" Trump declared, referring to alleged nuclear tests conducted by other countries.
However, reality is more complex. Neither Russia nor China has conducted full-scale nuclear explosive tests in recent decades. Mentioning Russia's "Burevestnik" and "Poseidon" is a demonstration of misunderstanding: these systems undergo flight and underwater tests but do not involve the detonation of a nuclear charge. Nevertheless, such rhetoric allows Trump to create the image of a "victim of global injustice," forced to defend national interests.
Historical Context: Why the U.S. Hasn't Tested Nuclear Weapons for 30 Years
The last U.S. nuclear test, "Divider," took place on September 23, 1992, at the Nevada Test Site. Since then, Washington has adhered to a moratorium, even though the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) has never been ratified by the U.S. Senate. Formally, the U.S. can resume testing at any time—legally, they are not bound by obligations.
Nevertheless, over the past three decades, administrations of both parties have adhered to a consensus: nuclear testing is a step backward, a threat to stability, and a catalyst for a new arms race. Instead, the U.S. has developed the Stockpile Stewardship program, which allows maintaining the readiness of the arsenal without actual explosions—using supercomputers, laser facilities, and hydrodynamic experiments.
Trump, however, seems intent on breaking this consensus—not so much out of military necessity as political expediency.
Geopolitical Goal: Pressure on China
The key point is the timing of the announcement. It was made on the eve of the meeting with Xi Jinping, amid escalating strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China. Trump directly points to China: "In five years, they will catch up with us." This is a reference to the long-discussed scenario in U.S. military circles of "nuclear parity" with China, which remains more theoretical than real.
But the content is not as important as the effect. The announcement of resumed testing is a signal to Beijing: Washington is ready to escalate. It is also an attempt to provoke an internal discussion in China, where any steps toward nuclear expansion are carefully weighed. If Beijing responds—even diplomatically—it can be presented as "confirmation of the threat."
Consequences: Chain Reaction and Collapse of Agreements
If the U.S. actually conducts nuclear tests, it will become a turning point in global security:
- Russia will have a formal justification for withdrawing from all remaining treaties (including New START, if it is still in effect by 2025).
- China, despite its restraint, may accelerate its nuclear buildup program.
- India and Pakistan may resume testing, citing the "new reality."
- North Korea, which has repeatedly violated the moratorium, will gain ideological cover.
The most dangerous outcome is the destruction of the norm of the unacceptability of nuclear tests, which has been formed over decades. Even North Korea declared a moratorium after its sixth test in 2017 under international pressure. Resuming U.S. tests legitimizes such actions for everyone.
Technological Myth: Why Does the U.S. Need "New" Tests?
Trump claims that the U.S. has "fully modernized its arsenal" under his administration. This is true—but without tests. The modernization program includes replacing carriers, warheads, and infrastructure but does not require new explosions. Modern technologies allow maintaining the reliability of the arsenal with 99.7% accuracy.
Therefore, there is no military necessity for testing. There is a political necessity to demonstrate strength—especially in the pre-election or pre-summit period. This is not a strategy but a tactic of intimidation.
Conclusion: The "Peacemaker" as a Destabilizer
Trump calls himself the "greatest peacemaker," but his actions lead to destabilization. Resuming nuclear tests is not a step toward security but a pressure tool based on the threat of global chaos.
In a context where the U.S. is already using its southern border as a testing ground for military technologies, nuclear tests could become the next stage in the militarization of domestic and foreign policy.
The question remains: Is the world ready for a new era of nuclear uncertainty? Or is this another Trump bluff—a loud gesture without consequences? But even a bluff in the nuclear sphere is fraught with unpredictable effects. Especially when the chessboard is occupied not by diplomats but by poker players.
Sources
- Forbes — Trump orders US to restart nuclear weapons testing for the first time in over 30 years
- Reuters — Trump says US to conduct nuclear tests amid global arms race concerns
- BBC News — US President Trump announces plans to resume nuclear weapons testing
- The Guardian — Trump orders Pentagon to restart nuclear weapons testing, sparking global tensions
- CNN — Trump’s nuclear testing announcement sparks fears of a new arms race
- Financial Times — US to resume nuclear testing under Trump administration
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