EPISODE 040: NUCLEAR CHECKMATE? WHY THE US IS TALKING ABOUT TESTS AGAIN — AND WHAT CHINA HAS TO DO WITH IT

 Nuclear Strategy // EPISODE 040

"Seismic signal of magnitude 2.75. Lop Nur test site. June 22, 2020. Not an earthquake. Not a mine collapse. An explosion."
This is Washington's new accusation against Beijing—and it could change the rules of the global nuclear game.

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🔍 CORE OF THE ACCUSATIONS: WHAT THE US IS CLAIMING

On February 17, 2026, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Christopher Yeaw made a sensational statement at the Hudson Institute [[6]]:

• Date and location: June 22, 2020, Lop Nur test site (Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, PRC).
• Data: A seismic station in Kazakhstan recorded a magnitude 2.75 event at a depth characteristic of underground tests.
• Analysts' conclusion: *"Virtually impossible that this was a natural phenomenon. The signal matches a low-yield nuclear explosion"* [[2]].
• Purpose of the alleged test: Development of technologies for:
  • Miniaturization of warheads (MIRV - multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles)
  • Ultra-low-yield tactical nuclear weapons
  • Integration of nuclear weapons with hypersonic delivery systems [[4]]

📌 Important: The U.S. emphasizes this was not a "critical" chain reaction in the classical sense, but a "yield-producing test"—an experiment where actual nuclear energy release was recorded.

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🛰️ WHAT INDEPENDENT EXPERTS SAY

Source	Position
NORSAR (Norway)	Signal resembles an explosion, but recorded at one station, weak—"cannot confirm or deny" [[2]]
CSIS (USA)	Satellite images show activity at Lop Nur: new tunnels, infrastructure—but "ambiguous" for concluding nuclear test
Carnegie Endowment	China is actively modernizing the test site; 45 historical tests insufficient for complex new systems. Incentive for covert tests exists [[2]]

🔹 Technical detail: If the explosion was conducted in a special cavity ("decoupling"), the actual yield could be 10-100 times higher than recorded—up to hundreds of tons or even 1 kiloton of TNT equivalent.

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🇨🇳 CHINA'S RESPONSE: "100% SLANDER"

*"The U.S. accusations of China conducting nuclear tests are completely groundless. This is political manipulation to justify its own return to nuclear testing and evade disarmament obligations."*
— Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington [[14]]

Official position:

• ✅ China has complied with the nuclear test moratorium since 1996
• ✅ All activities at Lop Nur are exclusively for peaceful purposes (high-energy physics, geolocation, seismic monitoring)
• ❌ Any claims to the contrary are part of an information campaign to contain China's development

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🌍 2026 CONTEXT: WHY NOW?

This isn't just "old news." It's part of a larger strategy:

🇺🇸 U.S. COURSE: "EQUALITY IN TESTING"

• Trump administration publicly declared readiness to resume nuclear testing "on equal terms with adversaries" [[9]]
• Pentagon considering arsenal modernization: new warheads, tactical nukes, hypersonic integration
• Political message: "If others violate the moratorium, we won't be bound by unilateral restrictions"

🇨🇳 CHINA: RACE TO GET AHEAD

• Pentagon data: China's arsenal grew from ~200 warheads (2019) to 600+ in 2026, target 1000 by 2030 [[2]]
• New technologies: mobile ICBMs DF-41, hypersonic gliders DF-ZF, submarine-launched JL-3 missiles
• Beijing's logic: "To deter the U.S., we need not just more missiles—but smarter, more precise, more flexible ones"

🌐 GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES

• Nuclear test moratorium (CTBT) is de facto crumbling
• Japan, South Korea, NATO countries increase pressure on Beijing for "transparency"
• Risk: chain reaction—if one side starts testing, others will follow

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🔚 INSTEAD OF AN EPILOGUE

The Lop Nur dispute isn't just a technical discussion about seismograms. It's about who will set the rules in the era of new nuclear reality.

China says: "We're for stability."
The U.S. responds: "Only if it's mutual."
And the world watches—and prepares.

🗓️ Watch for developments: UN Security Council hearings on arms control are scheduled for September 2026. The next "episode" of this story may begin then.

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SOURCES

[1] CNN: "US accuses China of covert nuclear test in 2020, raising global tensions"

[2] NPR: "U.S. says China conducted a secret nuclear test in 2020. Here's what we know"

[3] Caliber.Az: "US Accuses China of Conducting Nuclear Test in 2020"

[4] Hudson Institute: "China's Nuclear Breakout and the End of Strategic Stability"

[5] CSIS: "China's Nuclear Modernization: Implications for U.S. Deterrence"

[6] Hudson Institute: "Christopher Yeaw on China's Nuclear Program (Feb 17, 2026)"

— EPISODE 040 // The Control Stack

#NuclearStrategy #ChinaUS #LopNur #CTBT #ArmsRace #Geopolitics

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