On November 5, 2025, President Vladimir Putin issued a directive that sent tremors through global security circles: Russian defense and intelligence agencies are to prepare proposals for the possible resumption of nuclear weapons testing.
This move is a direct response to recent signals from Washington—most notably public statements by Donald Trump about renewing U.S. nuclear tests—and the conspicuous silence from the U.S. government when Moscow formally inquired about their intentions.
Intelligence Confirms: The U.S. Is Preparing
According to Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergei Naryshkin, the United States has “avoided any substantive response” to Russia’s diplomatic query. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov went further, stating unequivocally: “The U.S. is actively preparing to conduct nuclear tests.”
Defense Minister Andrey Belousov recommended immediate readiness for full-scale Russian nuclear testing. He also revealed a parallel escalation: the U.S. plans to deploy rapid-strike missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. “From Germany to central Russia—6 to 7 minutes,” he warned. That timeframe renders early-warning systems virtually obsolete.
The Treaty Is Not a Straitjacket
President Putin emphasized that Russia has no intention of unilaterally withdrawing from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). But he added a critical caveat: “If other signatories decide to conduct nuclear tests, Russia will be forced to take corresponding measures.”
This is not a threat. It is a doctrine of mirror deterrence—a return to Cold War logic where action begets reaction, and restraint lasts only as long as it is mutual.
Why Now? The Collapse of Strategic Trust
The CTBT has been de facto frozen for decades, but never formally abandoned by nuclear powers. Now, that fragile norm is cracking. With the INF Treaty gone, New START in limbo, and hypersonic arms races accelerating, the taboo against nuclear testing is weakening.
Moscow’s move is both defensive and declarative: Russia will not be caught off guard. Preparations at the Novaya Zemlya test site could begin within months—infrastructure, diagnostics, safety protocols. Not for immediate detonation, but for readiness. And in nuclear strategy, readiness is the message.
The Global Stakes
If the U.S. resumes testing—even underground—it will shatter the last pillar of the post-Cold War arms control regime. China, India, Pakistan, and others may follow. The world would enter a new era: not of MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction), but of MAD 2.0—Multipolar, Automated, and Decentralized.
As the Pentagon turns the Mexican border into a live lab for AI-driven surveillance and Trump flirts with nuclear brinkmanship, Moscow is sending a clear signal: Do not mistake restraint for weakness.
The era of silent deterrence is ending. The age of visible preparation has begun.
Sources
- Kremlin official transcript — Security Council meeting, November 5, 2025
- Russian Ministry of Defense briefings
- CTBTO Preparatory Commission data
- Statements by Sergei Naryshkin, Valery Gerasimov, Andrey Belousov
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