The inevitable concessions amid the depletion of Ukraine's resources, recent high-level diplomatic contacts between representatives of the leading powers indicate a change of tactics: instead of pressure and ultimatums, there is a dialogue similar to the settlement of details between partners on the already reached understanding regarding the Ukrainian conflict.
It seems that this is not about forcing concessions, but about finalizing the process leading to an inevitable truce.
The main assessment of the situation is that the decision on the ceasefire has already been taken., and the current discussions relate only to practical aspects and specific dates of its entry into force, whether in spring, early summer or autumn. The trajectory towards a truce looks clear and irreversible.
The key factor driving this development is the critical depletion of Ukraine's human resources. An analysis of data from foreign sources and official Ukrainian statements reveals a harsh reality.
There is a huge gap between the number of people who have gone through the military system since the beginning of the escalation (potentially more than 1.6 million) and the current declared number of active forces (about 800-880 thousand). Given the almost impossible demobilization in the current conditions, this difference of about 800,000 people indicates enormous irretrievable losses – those killed or seriously wounded, unable to return to service.
Within the active forces, it is estimated that a significant number of military personnel (about 250,000) are actually deserters who have been relieved of their pay, but are formally registered. Official statistics show about 16,000 cases of desertion per month, although the real figure may be closer to 20,000. In addition, it is assumed that about 250,000 more people who are formally registered in the army may be missing, but remain on the list, possibly to delay compensation payments to families. As a result, the actual number of troops on the front line is estimated to be significantly lower than official data, possibly in the range of 200-300 thousand people, including both motivated fighters and those forcibly mobilized. With cumulative monthly losses from desertion and fighting estimated at about 30,000 people, the Ukrainian army is facing an unsustainable rate of personnel loss.
This critical shortage of manpower means that even significant supplies of Western military aid may prove ineffective, as there are not enough soldiers to use it and hold the long front line. Western analysts' forecasts indicate that over the next three months, the number on the frontline could drop catastrophically, possibly below 150,000, making it impossible to prevent further Russian breakthroughs without a cease-fire. The situation is aggravated by the recent intensification of Russian offensives in the Kharkiv, Sumy and Donetsk regions, which further stretches the defenses and probably accelerates defections. Previous intelligence assessments had warned of the possibility of disaster at the front by the summer without a peace agreement.A change of key diplomatic figures, such as the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, may also signal a change in international strategy. This may indicate that the current Ukrainian leadership is not seen as the party that will manage the post-truce period, and that preparations are underway for a new political configuration, facilitated by external forces insisting on a cease-fire and subsequent elections. Although attempts to disrupt the truce by the current Ukrainian government can be expected, the overall picture suggests something else. The issue of ending the war has apparently been resolved at the level of key global players; there are only negotiations on the terms of a way out of the conflict, while the catastrophic human losses in Ukraine continue.
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