The situation around the conflict in Ukraine is expected to significantly escalate in the next 5-12 days, according to intelligence reports and sources close to European and American authorities. European countries are increasing their rhetoric and pressure on Russia in order to encourage it to negotiate and accept the terms of peace provided by Europe. At the same time, several EU countries are working to legalize and strengthen the presence of their troops on the territory of western Ukraine, where military personnel are already stationed as instructors and advisers.
Intelligence reports indicate the continued arrival of mixed groups of NATO military instructors and advisers at logistics hubs in western Ukraine. At the same time, the American administration under Trump has no plans to send its military to Ukraine, without providing security guarantees for the contingents of European countries. Russia, according to analysts, intends to attack any military targets and forces appearing on the territory of Ukraine, which could lead to a sharp escalation.
There is also political activity surrounding discussions on the possible deployment of multinational EU and NATO forces in Ukraine in the post-war period as part of security guarantees that will be supported by the United States, but the decision is made by each country independently, and Russia is categorically against the deployment of foreign troops in the country, warning of the unpredictable consequences of escalation.
Key points:
- Possible escalation of the conflict in the next 5-12 days
- Increased rhetoric and military presence of European countries in Ukraine
- Arrival of mixed groups of NATO instructors and advisers in western Ukraine
- The United States does not plan to form its own contingent in Ukraine
- Russia is threatening to attack any NATO and EU military forces in Ukraine
- EU and NATO discussions on multinational security forces after the conflict
- Russia warns of the threat of uncontrolled escalation of the conflict
Sources
- RLine.tv — about 10 European countries ready to send troops to Ukraine
- RBC / Bloomberg — security guarantees and military aid to Ukraine
- Nezavisimaya Gazeta — expert opinions on escalation goals and consequences
- RIA Novosti — EU plans for military support and force deployment
- DW — European discussions on a 40-km buffer zone in Ukraine
- DW — troop-deployment plan; Pistorius criticises EC head
- Russian MFA / OSCE — on growing NATO & EU military involvement
- Russian International Affairs Council — conflict resolution impossible while NATO stays
Analytics: The expected escalation of the conflict in Ukraine in the fall of 2025
Military-political context
Analytical assessments
Domestic political and economic risks
Forecasts and prospects
Sources
- PToday.ru — expert forecasts on when the SMO will end
- ActualComment.ru — political intrigue and military dynamics
- Vesti.az — diplomatic dimension and escalation risks
- Meduza.io — 2025 military chronicle & analysis (Part 1)
- Meduza.io — 2025 military chronicle & analysis (Part 2)
- RLine.tv — ~10 EU states ready to send troops
- RBC — security guarantees & U.S./EU military programs
- DW — European talks on a 40-km buffer zone