2026 enters history as a "hinge year"—a year when key conflicts in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America escalate simultaneously. The world transitions from the era of "American unipolar order" to a chaotic multipolar system, where no single power can establish stability. Instead, tactics of pressure, hybrid wars, and deterrence strategies dominate. Analysts from CFR, CNN, Newlines Institute, and other centers warn: the risk of cascading conflicts is high, especially amid U.S. internal polarization, economic exhaustion of Russia and China, and the weakening of traditional alliances, including NATO [1][2][3].
1. UKRAINE: THE FIFTH YEAR OF WAR — A TURNING POINT?
By February 2026, the Russian-Ukrainian war enters its fifth year. Despite massive losses and enormous resource expenditures, Moscow maintains its course toward a "limited victory"—capturing Donetsk Oblast and forming a land corridor to Crimea [2]. The spring offensive is seen as Russia's last attempt to achieve a military result before potential cuts in Western aid.
The U.S., under the Trump administration, actively promotes a **settlement plan** that involves territorial concessions by Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees [2][8]. However, Putin shows no readiness for compromise, and Kyiv is unwilling to surrender territory. The most likely scenario is a "frozen conflict" with reduced military support from Washington [1][3].
This accelerates European autonomy in security: the EU is increasing defense budgets and working on creating a core "European army," though without a clear operational structure yet [1][3].
2. TAIWAN: ON THE BRINK OF THE "MENU"
Taiwan remains the main point of tension in the Indo-Pacific region. Beijing continues its "eating the frog" policy—regular exercises, economic blockades, information attacks, and preparations for a possible military operation by 2027 [2][8].
The Trump administration demonstrates a contradictory stance: on one hand, a record $11 billion arms package, and on the other, a new National Security Strategy that positions the U.S. as a "hemispheric power," rejecting global responsibility [2][8]. A Trump-Xi summit in Beijing is scheduled for spring 2026, where Taiwan's fate could become a bargaining chip.
Meanwhile, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea are actively increasing defense budgets and aligning with Washington, turning the Asia-Pacific into one of the most militarized regions in the world [1][3]. Any escalation in the Taiwan Strait threatens a global economic collapse: over 60% of the world's chips are produced on the island, and potential losses are estimated at $10 trillion[2][8].
3. MIDDLE EAST: AFTER "SUCCESS" — NEW INSTABILITY
2025 was a year of military victories for Israel: Hamas and Hezbollah leaders were eliminated, Iran's regime was weakened, and all hostages were freed [2]. However, there are no political breakthroughs: Netanyahu's government, relying on far-right forces, is unable to conclude a long-term agreement with Arab neighbors.
In 2026, Israel must hold parliamentary elections (by October). Their outcome will determine whether the country can conclude a historic agreement with Saudi Arabia as part of the expanded "Abraham Accords" or get stuck in another cycle of violence [2].
Meanwhile, a new phase of conflict is brewing in Syria and Lebanon. In Idlib and northeastern Syria, fighting resumes between Kurdish forces, the Turkish army, and remnants of ISIS. In Lebanon, Israel continues airstrikes on Hezbollah positions, risking a full-scale war [1][3].
Iran, despite military and economic exhaustion, may make a last desperate attempt to revive its nuclear program, provoking a retaliatory strike from Israel or the U.S. [2][5].
4. VENEZUELA: THE "TRUMP COROLLARY" AND THE THREAT OF REGIONAL CRISIS
Venezuela has become the main arena of the U.S.'s new doctrine in the Western Hemisphere—the so-called "Trump Corollary," an updated version of the Monroe Doctrine [2]. The U.S. has deployed the largest military group since the Cuban Missile Crisis off Venezuela's coast, including an aircraft carrier, bombers, and special forces [2][8].
The goal is to achieve Maduro's voluntary departure, offering him asylum in Russia. However, the chances are slim: Caracas is strengthening ties with Moscow and Beijing, and Russia is already considering deploying military advisors and an EW base in Caracas [1][2].
If diplomatic pressure fails, cyberattacks, economic blockades, and even limited military actions are possible. This could provoke mass migration, destabilization of Colombia and Brazil, and open space for growing Chinese and Russian influence in the region [1][3].
5. GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES: FRAGMENTATION, AI, AND NEW FORMS OF WARFARE
2026 will be a year of deep fragmentation of the world order:
- Dedollarization accelerates: China, Russia, BRICS, and the Global South are actively switching to national currencies in trade [4].
- Artificial Intelligence becomes central to strategic competition. China has already demonstrated the competitiveness of its models (e.g., DeepSeek R1), causing panic on Wall Street [2][8].
- Hybrid and cyber wars take center stage: from attacks on critical infrastructure to manipulating public opinion.
- Private Military Companies (PMCs)—especially Russian ("Africa Corps") and Chinese—play an increasing role in conflicts in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East [5][6].
SCENARIOS: FROM LOCAL TRUCES TO GLOBAL COLLAPSE
Optimistic Scenario:
- Partial diplomatic breakthroughs (Saudi-Israeli agreement, temporary truce in Ukraine).
- Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.
- Venezuela avoids direct invasion.
Pessimistic Scenario:
- Simultaneous escalation in three regions.
- Military crisis in Taiwan involving the U.S. and China.
- Collapse of the Maduro regime and civil war in Venezuela.
- Breakdown of global trade and financial chains.
CONCLUSION: THE BIFURCATION POINT
2026 is not just another stage in the series of crises. It is a bifurcation point, after which the world can either begin to build a new form of cooperation (even if more regionalized) or plunge into chaos where "might makes right." Success or failure will depend not so much on military resources as on the strategic maturity of elites and the ability to dialogue amid growing uncertainty.
As an old diplomatic saying goes: "If you're not at the negotiating table, you're on the menu." In 2026, there will be fewer and fewer seats at that table—and more and more contenders.
Analytical review based on data from CFR, CNN, Newlines Institute, Forbes, and other sources.
Sources
- CFR: Conflicts to Watch in 2026
- CNN: From AI to Venezuela: Why 2026 is a hinge year for global power
- Newlines Institute: 2026 Annual Forecast
- GIS Reports: Global challenges in 2026 and beyond
- Hudson Institute: Underrated Global Risks in 2026
- Independent: My predictions for how global conflict could play out in 2026
- Chatham House: The world in 2026
- Forbes: The geopolitical risks that will shape global business in 2026
- C4 Defence: Multipolar World: European Peace 2026 Forecasts
- CNN: Russia-Europe Analysis
.jpg)
