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Showing posts with label controlled escalation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label controlled escalation. Show all posts

Saturday, 18 October 2025

EPISODE 013: TOMAHAWKS STILL IN STORAGE — ONE STEP FROM WAR

🎯 TOMAHAWK RANGE: 2500 KM 🚀

UKRAINE
RUSSIA
USA

Launch Site | 2500 km Range | Russian Targets



The BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles are not just weapons. They are the language of American diplomacy, written at 880 km/h with a range of up to 2500 kilometers. But in 2025, this language has become... economical.

The Pentagon is no longer purchasing new Tomahawks for itself. Instead, it's focusing on repair, modernization, and extending the service life of missiles that are already over 15 years old. Processors in the guidance systems are being updated, software is being rewritten, and controllers are being replaced. All to maintain the combat readiness of an arsenal of about 4,150 units without new production costs.

The production line at Raytheon is still operating — but only thanks to export orders. Japan, Australia, the Netherlands: they pay so that the U.S. doesn't forget how to make Tomahawks. Without them, the line would close. And then — no supplies. Not for the U.S. Not for Ukraine.


🎯 Why Ukraine?

Because the Tomahawk is not just a missile. It's a political signal — to Moscow and Beijing simultaneously.

According to Meduza and RBC, the U.S. president and his team are seriously considering transferring 20-50 missiles to Kyiv. Not for a massive strike. Not to break through air defenses. But as a political gesture.

For the launch, the mobile Typhon system is planned to be used — a ground-based launcher based on Mark 41 containers. Two batteries are already stationed in the Pacific. A third is in Germany. But if Trump decides, some of the systems could end up in the Kharkiv region by the end of the year.


💥 What Can Tomahawks Do?

  • Range: up to 2500 km (vs. ~300 km for Storm Shadow).
  • Warhead: 450 kg, capable of penetrating concrete shelters.
  • Guidance: TERCOM + satellite correction + radar tracking.
  • Stealth: low-altitude flight, radar evasion.

This is a weapon capable of reaching Geran drone factories in Tatarstan, Su-34 airbases near Voronezh, or reserve command posts near Ryazan. But — and this is key — only with mass use. And 20-50 missiles is not mass. It's a gesture.


🇷🇺 Kremlin Is Already Nervous

Putin called the potential supply a "qualitatively new level of escalation." His press secretary Peskov reminded: "Tomahawk can also carry a nuclear warhead." Although everyone knows — Kyiv will only get conventional ones. But fear is more important than facts.

For the Kremlin, "Tomahawks" are not just missiles. They are a symbol of Western threat, which it used as justification for the invasion. And now, when the threat becomes real — even in minimal quantities — the rhetoric is sharply escalating.


🏭 What About Production?

The U.S. is reducing production. The reason is the transition to a new generation: hypersonic missiles, ERAM, JASSM-ER. The Tomahawk is a respected veteran, but not the future. Therefore, the Pentagon doesn't want to spend the last munitions on a conflict where they won't decide the outcome.

However...

If Trump decides that the political benefit outweighs the tactical limitations, supplies will begin. But Trump, at the meeting with Zelensky, decided otherwise — escalation is not needed.


💡 Conclusion: The Language of Diplomacy

"Tomahawk" in 2025 is not a weapon of victory.

It is a tool of pressure.

Its power is not in quantity, but in the hint.

The possibility of its use is already a threat.

And a threat is sometimes more effective than a strike.

But if the strike does follow...

Then we will see how far the Kremlin is ready to go to a "qualitatively new level."


The world is changing faster than you can blink.

SOURCES

  1. Meduza — Tomahawks as a political signal.
  2. RBC — 20-50 missiles, rapid delivery, full U.S. targeting control.
  3. Financial Times — U.S. to retain control over Tomahawk strikes if sent to Ukraine.
  4. TASS — Kremlin's reaction to potential Tomahawk supplies.
  5. Reuters — U.S. production cuts and modernization of Tomahawks.

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