EPISODE 053: BAB EL-MANDEB LOCKED — HOUTHIS AND THE NEW BLOCKADE

March 2026 // Maritime Security // EPISODE 053

⚡ Signal: The Ansar Allah movement (Houthi) threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to US and Israeli ships and impose a naval blockade if they enter the war on Iran's side.

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📋 OFFICIAL STATEMENTS

Ansar Allah representatives (through official channels):

• A "suitable time" may see declaration of naval blockade against US and Israel
• Commercial and military vessels at risk, including carrier strike groups
• Special focus on ships heading to Israeli ports — not just Red Sea transit
• Actions linked to Iran support and potential "new front" opening

Sources: TopWar | News.am | TRT Russian

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🎯 WHAT "CLOSING THE STRAIT" MEANS IN PRACTICE

Important to understand: This isn't about physical blockade of the fairway (like Suez in 2021).

Real threat scenario:

• → Missile strikes on targets in the strait
• → Loitering munition and kamikaze drone attacks
• → Fast boat operations with ATGMs and mortars
• → Potential mining of selected areas
• → Coordinated swarm attacks to overload ship AD systems

Result: The strait isn't "closed," but becomes a high-risk zone. Insurance rates skyrocket, shipowners change routes, logistics slow down.

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🔍 HOW SERIOUS IS THE THREAT?

ARGUMENTS FOR REALIZATION:

• ✓ Houthis already have experience attacking commercial ships in Red Sea (2023-2026)
• ✓ Control significant portion of Yemeni coastline near Bab el-Mandeb
• ✓ Possess arsenal: anti-ship missiles ("Noor", "Qader"), UAVs, fast attack boats
• ✓ Operate in coordination with Iranian intelligence and logistics
• ✓ Already demonstrated ability to temporarily paralyze shipping

ARGUMENTS AGAINST FULL BLOCKADE:

• ✗ International coalition (US, UK, allies) maintains military presence
• ✗ Houthis don't control both strait shores (Djibouti is Western ally)
• ✗ Full blockade = act of war against global trade, potentially escalatory even for Iran

Conclusion: The threat is realistic as a pressure tool, but complete and long-term blockade is unlikely without broader regional war.

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🌍 WHAT CHANGES IF THREATS BECOME ACTIONS

LOGISTICS:

• Bab el-Mandeb is key node: ~10% of global maritime traffic passes through, including oil and LNG
• Alternative: Africa bypass via Cape of Good Hope: +10-14 days, +30-50% freight cost
• Suez Canal loses traffic → Egypt's revenue drop, increased load on alternative routes

ECONOMY:

• Rising insurance premiums for ships entering the region
• Accelerated inflation in Europe and Asia due to delivery delays
• Pressure on oil prices: any Persian Gulf supply disruption = market volatility

GEOPOLITICS:

• Increased risks for Saudi Arabia and UAE: their ports and exports depend on Red Sea stability
• US forced to keep resources in region, distracted from other theaters
• China and India — largest oil importers via this route — may activate diplomacy more aggressively

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🧭 SCENARIOS (BRIEFLY)

SCENARIO A: "SIGNAL"

Houthis conduct targeted attacks on US/Israeli-flagged vessels without fully closing the strait. Goal: demonstrate capability, pressure without total escalation.

SCENARIO B: "SELECTIVE BLOCKADE"

Declaration of "exclusion zones" for certain flags, massive attacks on military vessels. Commercial shipping forced to divert.

SCENARIO C: "FULL COLLAPSE"

Coordinated Houthi + Iran + other proxy actions lead to actual strait closure. Global shock, emergency UNSC sessions, risk of wider war.

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💡 WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

• 🔹 Official Ansar Allah statements with specific timelines or conditions
• 🔹 US carrier strike group movements in Red Sea and Arabian Sea
• 🔹 Insurance company data (Lloyd's, Joint War Committee) on high-risk zones
• 🔹 Saudi Arabia and UAE reaction: diplomacy, military preparations, Houthi negotiations
• 🔹 Freight rate dynamics and Brent crude price movements

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🎯 BOTTOM LINE

The Houthis aren't bluffing — they have the means and motive. But "closing the strait" for them means creating unacceptable risk, not a concrete wall. Watch the facts, not the headlines.

SOURCES

[1] TopWar: "Houthis announce Bab el-Mandeb Strait blockade"

[2] News.am: "Yemen's Houthis threaten to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait"

[3] TRT Russian: "Houthis declare Bab el-Mandeb Strait blockade"

#BabElMandeb #Houthis #Yemen #MaritimeSecurity #Blockade #RedSea #Shipping #OilPrices #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #2026Crisis #NavalWarfare #Logistics

→ yellowstone-end.blogspot.com

Sources: TopWar, News.am, TRT Russian — full links in original publication.

Israel attacked a power plant south of Sanaa, claiming its use by the Houthis

The Israeli armed forces launched a missile attack on an energy facility located south of the capital of Yemen, Sanaa. This was reported by the Israeli military, specifying that the operation was carried out by the country's Navy. According to their statement, the facility was used by the Ansar Allah movement, also known as the Houthis, for needs related to their military activities.

The target of the attack was a power plant, whose destruction could affect the energy supply of the capital region. However, the Israeli side has not provided public evidence confirming the military use of the facility.

This strike was part of a series of Israeli actions against targets in Yemen, which, according to Tel Aviv, are associated with the Houthis, a movement that supports Gaza and attacks Israeli and international ships in the Red Sea. Such air and missile strikes continue against the backdrop of a protracted conflict in the region.

International organizations have previously expressed concern about attacks on civilian infrastructure, warning of the risk of worsening the humanitarian crisis in one of the most affected countries in the Middle East.

The Houthis are strengthening the naval blockade of Israel: the threat of attacks on ships monitored through AIS between Egypt, Turkey and Israel

The Houthis, speaking out against Israel's military campaign in the Gaza Strip and the blockade of the enclave, announced the beginning of the fourth stage of their naval blockade of Israel, which includes attacks on all ships cooperating with Israeli ports, regardless of their nationality and destination. Yahya Saria, a spokesman for the Houthi armed forces, said they were warning all shipping companies, including major ones such as Maersk and MSC, to stop cooperating with Israeli ports. According to him, the Houthis use AIS data to track the movements of ships between Egypt, Turkey and Israel and will attack any ships connected to Israeli ports, anywhere their missiles and drones can reach. They call on countries to put pressure on Israel to end the aggression and lift the blockade on Gaza, promising to stop attacks when these conditions are met.

Thus, the current position of the Houthis is to block shipping flows to Israeli ports through threats and attacks on all ships that serve these ports, using modern tracking technologies and maximum target coverage.

The Israeli military will now learn Islam and Arabic to better understand the enemy

 

Now the Israeli military will not only have to shoot and march, but they will also have to study Islam and Arabic. This is not just a cultural course, it is a serious training that is being introduced by the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate, AMAN.

Why? Because intelligence officers are increasingly faced with the fact that they cannot properly understand what is being discussed. Especially when it comes to Houthis from Yemen or reports from Iraq. They have their own dialects, slang, and religious references — and without a deep understanding of the language and culture, it's easy to miss something or translate it incorrectly.

Therefore, the program now includes not only general Arabic, but also special training in the Iraqi dialect and the Houthi language. This should help analysts decipher intercepted messages faster and more accurately, understand the motives of the enemy and predict his actions.

The goal is that by the end of next year, 100% of AMAN employees will be trained in the basics of Islam, and half will complete an Arabic language course.

This is not just a fashion for "intercultural dialogue" — it is a practical necessity. To win, you need to understand how the other person thinks. And in a region where every gesture and word can carry hidden meaning, such knowledge is not a luxury, but a matter of security.

Saudi Arabia activates the American THAAD system to counter the missile threat from Iran

Amid growing tensions in the Persian Gulf and increased missile activity from Iran, Saudi Arabia has decided to deploy and activate the modern THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile defense system. It is reported that the first battery was purchased as part of a military deal with US President Donald Trump during his first term, which also provides for the supply of six more THAAD batteries, 44 launchers and 360 interceptors.

This system, developed by Lockheed Martin Corporation, is capable of intercepting ballistic missiles at high altitude both inside and outside the atmosphere, providing reliable protection against medium and ballistic missiles. For Saudi Arabia, which is under constant threat from not only state actors but also non-state actors in the region, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, THAAD represents an important strategic asset.

It is interesting to note that military-political cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia is developing against the background of long-term economic ties. The United States is the Kingdom's largest trading partner, and Saudi Arabia is the largest export market in the Middle East for American goods and technology. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has also seen an increase in investment activity in the United States, which can amount to up to $770 billion, although accurate data is difficult to verify from open sources.

The delivery of THAAD was part of a broader effort to modernize Saudi Arabia's defense capabilities, especially after numerous attacks on the country's oil infrastructure, including the famous attack on ARAMCO facilities in 2019. These events have highlighted the need to strengthen air and missile defense, as well as expand bilateral military cooperation with key allies, including the United States.

In addition, the increased use of THAAD systems is taking place against the background of statements by the Trump administration about the revision of global trade policy, which could affect many countries, but experts note that Saudi Arabia has the potential to adapt to new conditions and even find new opportunities for cooperation with the United States.

The US accuses Chinese company Chang Guang Satellite Technology of providing satellite images to Houthi rebels in Yemen

The United States has accused the Chinese company Chang Guang Satellite Technology (CGST) of transmitting satellite images to Houthi rebels in Yemen, allowing them to strike US Navy ships and other targets. CGST operates one of the world's largest groups of Earth remote sensing satellites, with over 140 small, high—resolution satellites, making it a key player in the space surveillance market.

Founded in 2014 as a private company, CGST has grown rapidly and has become a leader in China's commercial space technology. Its Jilin-1 satellites provide panchromatic images with a resolution of up to 0.5 meters and are capable of repeatedly passing over the same point of the Earth during the day. The company is also actively implementing advanced technologies, including high-speed laser communication between satellites and ground stations.

The US charges relate to the fact that CGST may have provided surveillance data that was used by the Houthis for precision strikes against American military installations. The company has previously participated in various armed conflicts by providing satellite information.

CGST continues to expand its constellation of satellites and plans to launch about 300 spacecraft into orbit by 2030, which will significantly enhance its global surveillance and intelligence gathering capabilities.

B-52 joins B-2 at Diego Garcia: 10 bombers are now stationed on a strategic island in the Indian Ocean

 

B-52

Several B-52 strategic bombers were sent to the Diego Garcia strategic military base in the Indian Ocean, which joined the B-2 Spirit already stationed there. Thus, the total number of heavy bombers on this key island has reached ten, which is the highest figure in recent years.  

This measure to strengthen the US military presence in the region is seen as a response to the tense situation in the Middle East region and activity from Iran and its allies, such as the Yemeni Houthis. Earlier, President Donald Trump repeatedly warned Tehran about supporting radical groups, saying that Washington would not allow threats against American interests.  

Although the arrival of the B-52 indicates an increase in strategic capabilities, sources note that some of the **B-2** stationed at Diego Garcia for several weeks may soon return to bases in the United States. This rotational approach makes it possible to maintain high combat readiness without the constant presence of expensive aircraft in the zone of possible stress.

Diego Garcia plays a key role in U.S. Air Force operations in the Indian Ocean and the Middle East, providing rapid response to threats in vast spaces. Given the geopolitical instability, the presence of ten bombers there at once is a signal for both allies and potential opponents.

The F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet was lost overboard of the USS Harry S. Truman after the incident in the Red Sea

 

The US Navy reported the loss of an F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet, which fell overboard the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman during a towing operation. The incident occurred in the Red Sea, where the aircraft carrier is carrying out tasks as part of a large-scale military operation against the Houthi rebel group.  

According to a statement from representatives of the US Navy, initial data indicate that the aircraft carrier's abrupt maneuver to evade the Houthi attack was one of the reasons for the fighter's downfall. On Monday, the Houthis announced an attack using drones and missiles directed against the USS Harry S. Truman. Although the aircraft carrier was not seriously damaged, the incident resulted in the loss of an expensive fighter jet.

Fortunately, all the personnel were found, and the consequences of the incident were minimal — one sailor was slightly injured. However, the loss of the F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter represents significant material damage to the U.S. Navy. This case also highlights the risks faced by American warships in the region due to Houthi activity.

The Houthi rebel group based in Yemen continues to intensify its attacks on ships and warships in the Red Sea. Using modern drones and missile systems, they seek to put pressure on the international community and the United States in particular. Operations against the Houthis remain a priority for the US military, but such incidents demonstrate the complexity of operations in an environment of increased threat.

The second US aircraft carrier has arrived in the Middle East

The Central Command of the US Navy announced that the aircraft carrier strike group number one, led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, has arrived in the Middle East. This event is part of the US efforts to increase its military presence in the region due to increasing tensions.

Arrival Details

-Aircraft Carrier Strike Group: The USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) has arrived in the region along with escort ships, including the cruiser USS Princeton (CG-59) and the destroyers USS Sterett (DDG-104) and USS William P. Lawrence (DDG-110).

- Deployment objective: The Group arrived to support operations against the Houthis in Yemen and to ensure the safety of navigation in the Red Sea.

- Timeline: The USS Carl Vinson is expected to be in the region over the coming months, replacing the USS Harry S. Truman, which has already been deployed to Central Command.

The arrival of the second aircraft carrier group in the Middle East underscores the United States' determination to counter the threats posed by the Houthis and their allies. It also demonstrates the ability of the United States to rapidly deploy large military forces to maintain peace and stability in the region.

Transfer of the Patriot battalion from the Pacific Ocean to the Middle East: logistical problems

 

According to an analytical report published on the Business Insider website, it took 73 C-17 aircraft to transfer the Patriot battalion from the Pacific Ocean to the Middle East. This highlights the serious challenges in sustained logistical support for American troops needed for combat operations in the Pacific. Analysts note that such problems can negatively affect the ability of the United States and NATO to quickly deploy troops if necessary.

Transfer Details

- Number of flights: It took 73 flights on C-17 aircraft to transfer the Patriot battalion. This shows the complexity and scale of the logistical operations that are required to move large military units.

- Armament and equipment: The Patriot Battalion includes anti-aircraft missile systems, which are among the most advanced in the world. Each battalion consists of four batteries, each of which includes a radar, a control room and up to eight launchers.

-Transfer objectives: The transfer of the battalion was carried out as part of a broader build-up of the US military presence in the Middle East, related to tensions with Iran and the Houthis in Yemen.

Problems with logistics

- Limitations of transport aviation: Admiral Sam Paparo, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, noted that 73 C-17 cargo flights were required to transfer the Patriot battalion. This highlights the problems with transport aviation, which can affect the ability of the United States to deploy troops quickly if necessary.

-The need to improve logistics: Analysts note that logistical problems can become critical for combat operations in the Pacific Ocean, where the distances between theaters of war are large and the infrastructure to support military operations is limited.

The US is concentrating B-2 Spirit bombers in Diego Garcia amid growing tensions

 The United States has concentrated B-2 Spirit bombers in Diego Garcia.

The United States is deploying aircraft to an outpost in the Indian Ocean as threats to Iran intensify and the bombing of the Houthis continues.Satellite images show that at least three C-17 cargo planes and 10 aerial refueling aircraft have been deployed in the last 48 hours.

Additional air traffic control records show that additional B-2s, using the call sign Abba, took off from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri earlier today, also bound for Diego Garcia. All 20 B-2 bombers of the Air Force are based in Whiteman.

B-2 Spirit bomber

F/A-18 Super Hornet with Stormbreaker Missiles: New Weapon against Houthis

 

The US Navy's F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter jets have begun using high-precision GBU-53/B Stormbreaker gliding bombs in operations against Houthi militants in Yemen. This new generation of weapons significantly increases the effectiveness of airstrikes, allowing them to hit targets in all weather conditions.  

What is Stormbreaker?  

The GBU-53/B Stormbreaker is a small–sized laser-radar guided aerial bomb capable of hitting moving targets at a distance of up to 110 km. Its key features:  

- Weatherproof – Works in rain, fog and dust storms.  

- Multi-sensor guidance – a combination of IR, laser and radar guidance.  

- High accuracy – the probability of hitting a target exceeds 90%.  

Why is Stormbreaker important in the fight against the Houthis?  

The Houthis are actively using mobile rocket launchers and drones, which requires the US Navy to provide high-precision weapons. Stormbreaker allows you to:  

- Destroy targets without the aircraft entering the air defense zone.  

- Minimize collateral damage.  

- Increase the effectiveness of each combat mission. 

 The use of the GBU-53/B Stormbreaker on the F/A-18 Super Hornet demonstrates the growing role of smart munitions in modern conflicts. This technology not only enhances the strike capabilities of the United States, but also changes the tactics of the air war in the Middle East.