Negotiations in Saudi Arabia: A new chance for peace or the beginning of a new escalation?

Donald Trump's statements about the upcoming meeting of representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the United States in Riyadh, as well as the comments of Vice President J. D. Vance, open up new prospects for resolving the Ukrainian crisis. However, behind the words about the "end of the war" there are complex diplomatic maneuvers that can lead to both a historic breakthrough and a new wave of tension.

Trump and his approach to negotiations

Donald Trump continues to demonstrate his characteristic style of conducting international politics — striving for quick results and willingness to compromise. His decision to arrange a meeting not personally with Vladimir Putin, but through intermediaries from three countries (Ukraine, Russia, and the United States) suggests that he prefers a softer approach, avoiding direct pressure or confrontation. This can be a strategy to create a favorable atmosphere for negotiations, where each side can come up with its own terms without the risk of losing face.

However, the key question is how realistic are the expectations regarding the end of the conflict. Trump's phrase "We'll see if we can end this war" sounds optimistic, but the scale of the problem requires much more than just the desire of the parties to come to an agreement. Historical experience shows that such complex conflicts are rarely resolved quickly and painlessly.

Possible role of the United States: from mediator to participant

An interview with Vice President J. D. Vance reveals a more complex picture of the American position. Although earlier the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, ruled out sending the US military to Ukraine, Vance admits the use of both economic and military instruments of influence if negotiations fail. This ambivalent message creates uncertainty.: Who exactly determines US foreign policy — the president or the military?

This uncertainty may be part of a strategy aimed at increasing pressure on Russia. The warning about possible troop deployments and new sanctions is a powerful lever of influence that could force Moscow to take the negotiation process more seriously. However, such an approach also risks provoking further escalation, especially if Russia perceives these words as a threat.

What awaits the negotiations?

Vice President Vance stressed that the deal that could be reached "shocks a lot of people." This indicates that the United States is ready to consider options that were previously considered unacceptable. For example, issues of Ukraine's territorial integrity or security guarantees may be the subject of trade. This approach raises concerns among hardliners who believe that any concessions to Russia will weaken Kiev's position.

In addition, Vance's phrase that "all the cards are on the table" indicates Washington's readiness for a broad dialogue that includes not only the Ukrainian issue, but also general relations between the United States and Russia. This may mean that a successful agreement on Ukraine will become the basis for normalization of relations between the two countries.

The Russian perspective: The search for a new balance

It is interesting to note that Vance mentioned the need to reset relations with Russia, emphasizing that "Putin does not want to be a younger brother in relations with China." This thesis points to internal contradictions in the Russian-Chinese partnership and the possibility of using these differences to create more equal relations between Moscow and Washington.

This could be an important incentive for Russia to reach an agreement. If Moscow really wants to strengthen its independence in the international arena, it may be more open to compromises, especially if they allow it to obtain long-term benefits, such as lifting sanctions or improving the economic situation.

Risk for Ukraine

The main risk is that Ukraine's interests may become secondary in this game of big powers. If the deal is truly "shocking," it could mean significant concessions to Kiev from Western partners. For example, the issue of the status of Donbass or even Crimea can be used as an element of bargaining. This will create a difficult situation for the Ukrainian leadership: accept conditions that may be unpopular within the country, or reject them, risking losing the support of the international community.

The upcoming talks in Saudi Arabia represent a unique opportunity for all parties to move towards peace. However, the success of this process depends on many factors, including the willingness of each side to compromise, as well as the ability to maintain a balance between the interests of major players and the rights of direct participants in the conflict. If the negotiations are successful, it could be a turning point in the history of the region. However, if they fail, the consequences can be much more serious than before.