EPISODE 040: NUCLEAR CHECKMATE? WHY THE US IS TALKING ABOUT TESTS AGAIN — AND WHAT CHINA HAS TO DO WITH IT

 Nuclear Strategy // EPISODE 040

"Seismic signal of magnitude 2.75. Lop Nur test site. June 22, 2020. Not an earthquake. Not a mine collapse. An explosion."
This is Washington's new accusation against Beijing—and it could change the rules of the global nuclear game.

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🔍 CORE OF THE ACCUSATIONS: WHAT THE US IS CLAIMING

On February 17, 2026, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Christopher Yeaw made a sensational statement at the Hudson Institute [[6]]:

• Date and location: June 22, 2020, Lop Nur test site (Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, PRC).
• Data: A seismic station in Kazakhstan recorded a magnitude 2.75 event at a depth characteristic of underground tests.
• Analysts' conclusion: *"Virtually impossible that this was a natural phenomenon. The signal matches a low-yield nuclear explosion"* [[2]].
• Purpose of the alleged test: Development of technologies for:
  • Miniaturization of warheads (MIRV - multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles)
  • Ultra-low-yield tactical nuclear weapons
  • Integration of nuclear weapons with hypersonic delivery systems [[4]]

📌 Important: The U.S. emphasizes this was not a "critical" chain reaction in the classical sense, but a "yield-producing test"—an experiment where actual nuclear energy release was recorded.

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🛰️ WHAT INDEPENDENT EXPERTS SAY

Source	Position
NORSAR (Norway)	Signal resembles an explosion, but recorded at one station, weak—"cannot confirm or deny" [[2]]
CSIS (USA)	Satellite images show activity at Lop Nur: new tunnels, infrastructure—but "ambiguous" for concluding nuclear test
Carnegie Endowment	China is actively modernizing the test site; 45 historical tests insufficient for complex new systems. Incentive for covert tests exists [[2]]

🔹 Technical detail: If the explosion was conducted in a special cavity ("decoupling"), the actual yield could be 10-100 times higher than recorded—up to hundreds of tons or even 1 kiloton of TNT equivalent.

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🇨🇳 CHINA'S RESPONSE: "100% SLANDER"

*"The U.S. accusations of China conducting nuclear tests are completely groundless. This is political manipulation to justify its own return to nuclear testing and evade disarmament obligations."*
— Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington [[14]]

Official position:

• ✅ China has complied with the nuclear test moratorium since 1996
• ✅ All activities at Lop Nur are exclusively for peaceful purposes (high-energy physics, geolocation, seismic monitoring)
• ❌ Any claims to the contrary are part of an information campaign to contain China's development

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🌍 2026 CONTEXT: WHY NOW?

This isn't just "old news." It's part of a larger strategy:

🇺🇸 U.S. COURSE: "EQUALITY IN TESTING"

• Trump administration publicly declared readiness to resume nuclear testing "on equal terms with adversaries" [[9]]
• Pentagon considering arsenal modernization: new warheads, tactical nukes, hypersonic integration
• Political message: "If others violate the moratorium, we won't be bound by unilateral restrictions"

🇨🇳 CHINA: RACE TO GET AHEAD

• Pentagon data: China's arsenal grew from ~200 warheads (2019) to 600+ in 2026, target 1000 by 2030 [[2]]
• New technologies: mobile ICBMs DF-41, hypersonic gliders DF-ZF, submarine-launched JL-3 missiles
• Beijing's logic: "To deter the U.S., we need not just more missiles—but smarter, more precise, more flexible ones"

🌐 GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES

• Nuclear test moratorium (CTBT) is de facto crumbling
• Japan, South Korea, NATO countries increase pressure on Beijing for "transparency"
• Risk: chain reaction—if one side starts testing, others will follow

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🔚 INSTEAD OF AN EPILOGUE

The Lop Nur dispute isn't just a technical discussion about seismograms. It's about who will set the rules in the era of new nuclear reality.

China says: "We're for stability."
The U.S. responds: "Only if it's mutual."
And the world watches—and prepares.

🗓️ Watch for developments: UN Security Council hearings on arms control are scheduled for September 2026. The next "episode" of this story may begin then.

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SOURCES

[1] CNN: "US accuses China of covert nuclear test in 2020, raising global tensions"

[2] NPR: "U.S. says China conducted a secret nuclear test in 2020. Here's what we know"

[3] Caliber.Az: "US Accuses China of Conducting Nuclear Test in 2020"

[4] Hudson Institute: "China's Nuclear Breakout and the End of Strategic Stability"

[5] CSIS: "China's Nuclear Modernization: Implications for U.S. Deterrence"

[6] Hudson Institute: "Christopher Yeaw on China's Nuclear Program (Feb 17, 2026)"

— EPISODE 040 // The Control Stack

#NuclearStrategy #ChinaUS #LopNur #CTBT #ArmsRace #Geopolitics

→ thecontrolstack.blogspot.com

Decoding control's architecture—one signal at a time.

The United States has successfully tested the Talon-A reusable hypersonic vehicle

 

The Talon-A reusable hypersonic vehicle has exceeded the speed of sound by five times

For the first time, the United States has conducted tests of a reusable hypersonic aircraft. An autonomous drone developed by Stratolaunch exceeded the speed by Mach 5 numbers during a test flight in March 2025. The Talon-A hypersonic vehicle launched from a carrier aircraft, flew over the Pacific Ocean and landed safely at the Space Forces base in California. 1.5 months later, the Pentagon revealed the test data.

In 1968, NASA, the US Air Force and the US Navy closed the X-15 program for the development of a rocket plane for hypersonic and suborbital flights, which lasted for almost 10 years and studied extreme speeds. Then the experimental aircraft set a speed record for manned vehicles — Mach 6.7.

Its successor, the Talon-A, was designed by Stratolaunch, founded in 2011 by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. The flights were conducted as part of the MACH-TB program, a Pentagon initiative aimed at accelerating the development of hypersonic weapons through the use of commercially available test platforms. According to Stratolaunch representatives, the company's reusable platform offers a cheaper and faster alternative to traditional one-time systems, allowing faster data acquisition and retesting.

The Talon-A2 was launched over the Pacific Ocean from under the wing of a huge Roc carrier aircraft with two twin fuselages and a wingspan of 117 meters, which also belongs to Stratolaunch. The drone accelerated to speeds exceeding Mach 5 and landed at the Vanderberg Military Space Base in California.

During the flight of the first single-use Talon-A model, which took place in March 2024, a supersonic speed of just under Mach 5 was achieved. The new version, TA-2, is fully reusable. The Talon-A2 is equipped with a Ursa Major Hadley rocket engine. It is a reusable 2.3-ton rocket engine powered by liquid oxygen and oxygen-enriched kerosene with a hybrid combustion cycle designed for small launch vehicles and hypersonic vehicles.

The success of these trials marks a turning point for Stratolaunch, which has been struggling financially since Allen's death in 2018. The company, originally created for the aerial launch of orbital rockets, was bought in 2019 by Cerberus Capital Management, and has since begun to engage in hypersonic testing. This turnaround was a lifesaver for the company, as it attracted attention and funding from the Pentagon.

Russia to resume production of upgraded Tu-160

Tu-160

The Russian military-industrial complex, unlike the production facilities of NATO countries, can afford the modernization of aircraft, which will provide new strategic advantages.

The Tu-160M standard incorporates completely new avionics, NK-32 series engines, and advanced weapons systems such as the X—101/102 cruise missiles and the X-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. At the same time, the new version of the missile carrier will retain all the advantages of the original Tu-160 model range, which are now being effectively used in the military area.

The Tu-160 strategic bomber with variable wing sweep is the main long-range aircraft. It is designed to destroy the most important targets in remote military geographical areas with nuclear and conventional weapons. The program for the reproduction of the Tu-160 in a modernized form, the Tu-160M— was launched by decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The specialists have fully digitized the design documentation, restored the technology of vacuum welding of titanium products, resumed production of airframe assemblies, formed a new cooperation and prepared everything necessary for the start of production.

China unveils Cuantianhou hypersonic drone

 

The Cuantianhou hypersonic drone

China has unveiled the Cuantianhou hypersonic drone with unique engines.

Sichuan Lingkong Tianxing Technology accelerated the development of the Cuantianhou hypersonic drone. Tests of the device with detonation engines will begin in 2026, and its speed will exceed Mach 4.

The Chinese company Sichuan Lingkong Tianxing Technology presented a model of the Cuantianhou hypersonic drone in Chengdu. Weighing 1.5 tons and 7 meters long, the device is equipped with two Jindou-400S detonation engines, which will allow it to accelerate to a speed of 4.2 Mach.

The first tests of Cuantianhou were planned for 2027, but successful prototype tests allowed them to be postponed to 2026. The company has conducted 88 tests over six years, including autumn engine launches on simple models.

Two Jindou-400S detonation engines will be installed on the drone. They are lighter and more efficient than the previous version of the Jindou-400. The new engine weighs 100 kg, has a length of 1.9 m and develops a thrust of 4 kN, consuming only 6 kg of fuel per 50 km flight at a speed of Mach 4.

The principle of operation of the engine is based on explosive detonation of fuel, which creates a more powerful jet stream compared to conventional combustion.

The developers believe that hypersonic civil aviation is already close to reality. Sichuan Lingkong Tianxing Technology plans to take the Da Sheng hypersonic passenger aircraft into the air in 2030.

Cuantianhou resembles the American SR-71 Blackbird reconnaissance aircraft, but surpasses it in speed and altitude. The SR-71 reached Mach 3.32, and the Chinese drone will accelerate to Mach 4.2 at an altitude of 20 km.

Chinese engineers are confident that their developments are ahead of their competitors. For example, the American Hermeus plans to create a hypersonic aircraft with a speed of Mach 5, but the project is three years behind schedule. Swiss startup Destinus is working on hydrogen-fueled airplanes, but their technology is still far from commercial implementation.

China Successfully Tests New Hypersonic Air-to-Air Missile

In a significant military development, China has successfully conducted the final tests of a new secret hypersonic air-to-air missile. This achievement marks a major advancement in China's military capabilities and has drawn considerable attention from international observers.

The South China Morning Post reports that this is the first official confirmation of the existence of this new weapon. The missile is designed to pose a significant threat to advanced American aircraft, including the B-21 bomber and the F-35 fighter jet. This revelation underscores the growing technological prowess of China's military and its ambitions to challenge U.S. dominance in the realm of aerial warfare.

Hypersonic missiles, which travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound), are notoriously difficult to intercept due to their high velocity and maneuverability. The successful testing of this new air-to-air missile indicates that China has made substantial progress in developing and deploying hypersonic technology, a field where both the United States and Russia have also been actively investing.

The development of this missile is part of a broader effort by China to modernize its military and enhance its defensive and offensive capabilities. This includes investments in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and cyber warfare, all of which are aimed at bolstering China's position on the global stage.

The news of China's successful tests has raised concerns among U.S. military officials and analysts, who see this as a potential game-changer in the balance of power. The ability to threaten advanced U.S. aircraft could alter the dynamics of future conflicts and necessitate a reevaluation of defense strategies and technologies.