Trump's "Last Chance": Witkoff flies to Moscow under sanctions deadline

Today is a busy day in American politics. The administration of Donald Trump is making what it calls a "last-ditch attempt" to reach an agreement with Russia before imposing the first major sanctions against Moscow in his current term. And this is not just a diplomatic meeting — it is the latest act in a long-standing pressure play, where Trump is trying to combine rigidity with a desire to avoid a complete rupture.

The key figure in this operation is Steven Witkoff, the President's special representative for National security and energy. He has already arrived in Moscow to meet with the Russian leadership. And the very fact of this visit is already a signal: Trump needs a result. And he was needed yesterday.

Why "last time"?

Trump, as you know, likes to set self-made deadlines. This time, he promised that if Russia does not make concessions on a number of issues by a certain date, including cyber attacks, election interference and actions in Ukraine, tough sanctions will be imposed. This deadline is just around the corner. And Witkoff is the last trump card that should prevent escalation.

But here comes an important point: who really needs it?

Who's afraid of whom?

At first glance, the United States is putting pressure on Russia. But the reality is increasingly looking the other way around. Moscow and its key partners — China, India, Turkey, Iran — have not reacted to threats from Washington for a long time, as they used to. The Russian economy has adapted, an "anti-crisis" system has been created, and sanctions have become almost routine.

Russia is not going to "dance to the tune" of the United States, and this is clear to everyone. Moreover, the Kremlin seems to expect these negotiations to fail. Why? Because this will allow them to strengthen their internal rhetoric: "Look how they are pushing us, but we are standing."

But Trump is risking much more.

Why is Trump losing?

Because his reputation is his main asset. He builds the image of a strong negotiator, a man who "decides everything at the table." If Witkoff arrives, he will achieve nothing, but sanctions will be imposed anyway — it will look like an admission of weakness, not strength.

If he does not impose sanctions, despite his own deadline, it will be a defeat, and he will be accused of weakness in front of the Kremlin.

So Trump is trapped.:  

"A deal?" "So he asked for the impossible."  

"No deal?" — So he couldn't come to an agreement.  

- Sanctions? — It will hit its own economy (due to rising energy prices).  

- Not sanctions? — They will be accused of betraying the allies.

What does Witkoff want?

Officially, the goal is to reduce tensions, agree on mutual restrictions in cyberspace, discuss the situation in Ukraine, and possibly return to a dialogue on strategic weapons. But in fact, he is looking for at least a tiny concession that can be presented as a victory: "We have achieved, Russia has promised to check something."

What will happen next?

If the negotiations fail, sanctions will be imposed. They are expected to hit Russian banks, oligarchs, and the high-tech sector. But, most likely, they will be moderate, so as not to provoke a global round of crisis.

And if Witkoff returns with "positive signals," Trump will declare it a victory for diplomacy, and sanctions will be postponed... for another time.

Output

It's not just a meeting. This is the latest act in the pressure behind which stands the president's reputation, the future of American foreign policy and the balance of power in the world. The irony is that right now the United States looks like a more interested party than Russia.