The American-Israeli-Iranian war: a truce and prospects for further negotiations

The strange war between the US and Iran

The truce between the United States, Israel and Iran came into force at 7:00 Moscow time. Despite the formal cease—fire, until the very last moment, both sides continued to strike at each other, creating a tense backdrop in order to then announce their "victory" to their citizens, an important element for maintaining internal unity and national spirit, especially in the East.

Situation analysis

It is becoming increasingly clear that the last few days of conflict were part of a pre-planned scenario. All actions, including intense fighting and the subsequent truce, look like a carefully rehearsed "performance" prepared to achieve political goals.

The next stage is negotiations and an agreement on the nuclear program

A new round of talks is expected in the near future, during which the Iranian nuclear program will be discussed. According to the preliminary arrangements:

- Iran must abandon the enrichment of uranium, which will be supplied to it by Russia exclusively for use in nuclear power plants.

- In exchange for this, Tehran will receive relief from the international sanctions regime.

Missile program and political stability

Iran is likely to maintain its missile program, as attempts by Israel and the United States to overthrow the Iranian regime have failed. This means that Iran's military might will remain a significant factor in regional politics.

Conclusions and expectations

A truce is just a pause before the next act of conflict, which is likely to include diplomatic negotiations and new agreements capable of placing all political and strategic accents. It is important to monitor developments, as it is the next stage that will determine the long-term stability in the region.

Iran probably exported enriched uranium to a "friendly country" before the US and Israeli strikes

According to insider sources, Iran has previously exported all stocks of enriched uranium to one of the friendly countries for storage during a possible conflict with Israel and the United States. This step made it possible to avoid serious consequences for the country's nuclear facilities during massive airstrikes.

The claims of the United States and Israel about the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear program now raise serious doubts. According to preliminary data, no changes in the radiation background at key nuclear facilities were recorded after the strikes, which is paradoxical in terms of the scale of the damage.

Possible consequences

- Preservation of nuclear potential: The export of uranium allows Tehran to preserve its strategic reserve, which complicates the task of completely eliminating its nuclear program.

- Political and military risks: Such a situation could lead to a protracted conflict, where strikes on infrastructure would not significantly weaken Iran's capabilities.

- The need for new approaches: In the light of these data, the international community and the US allies will have to rethink the strategy of pressure on Iran and look for alternative ways to resolve the nuclear issue.

The Iranian nuclear issue: between diplomacy and bombs

B-2 Spirit and GBU-57 MOP

Politics is always the art of the possible. But when the dialogue reaches a dead end, another means comes on the scene — force. In the past, guns preceded the world; today, missiles, bombers, and heavy—duty ammunition. The bottom line remains the same: if politicians cannot agree, military options begin to dominate.

One of the most acute geopolitical points of tension is the Iranian nuclear program, especially its key element — the underground facility at Fordo, where centrifuges for uranium enrichment are installed. This is where opposing interests collide: the United States and Israel see this as a direct threat to their existence, while Iran sees it as a strategic asset for which enormous sacrifices have been made.

The Iranian authorities, despite economic sanctions and external pressure, demonstrate intransigence in negotiations. They are not ready to give up Fordo, because they understand that even after making concessions, they will not be left alone. And if that's the case, then it's better to stick to the end. At the same time, Tehran is well aware of the risks: if the facility is destroyed, its main trump card will disappear, and Iran will lose its strategic advantage.

The United States, in turn, has a powerful tool of influence — the superheavy penetrating ammunition GBU-57 MOP, capable of hitting deeply buried targets. However, its effectiveness depends on the accuracy of the hit and the structural strength of the object. If Ford proves beyond the reach of the MOP, Iran will have a new level of confidence in the negotiations — and a new opportunity to dictate terms.

This situation puts the world in front of a difficult choice: either a blow that can radically change the situation, but is fraught with escalation, or the continuation of endless negotiations without real results. Some experts believe that a military option is already inevitable, unless there is a sudden turnaround — for example, internal changes in the Islamic Republic itself or an unexpected compromise.

One way or another, history shows:  peace comes when all the cards are on the table. Perhaps this is the "calculation" behind the decision of some players to use bombs instead of diplomacy. But in both cases, the cost of making a mistake is enormous.

The Iran-Israel war and the Armenian-Azerbaijani contradictions: the right of the strong and geopolitical games

Israel's intensive military campaign against Iran continues for the second day, during which Israeli aircraft and missile forces are attacking key facilities of the Iranian nuclear program. In the modern world, where the "right of the strong" prevails, Israel relies precisely on its military power and the support of its allies to achieve strategic goals. Despite Tehran's numerous appeals to the UN and international organizations, there is practically no reaction and consequences for Israel.

Israel's goal is either to overthrow the current regime in Iran, or at least to destroy its nuclear infrastructure with minimal loss to itself. This tough stance and successful strikes are attracting the close attention of neighboring regional players, in particular Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Ankara and Baku are closely monitoring the development of the conflict, waiting for their "historic chance." The protege of the West, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, is under pressure and risks withdrawing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). This may open the way for Turkey and Azerbaijan to take new military and political initiatives in the region, especially in the context of the long-standing Armenian-Azerbaijani contradictions.

Western countries such as France and Germany, which promised to support Armenia, are far away in the current situation, and the intervention of the United States and Britain, if it happens, is likely to be on the side of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Thus, the balance of power in the region may change significantly, leading to new challenges and conflicts.

As a result, modern geopolitics demonstrates that the "right of the strong" is becoming the dominant factor, and international institutions and treaties are becoming less effective in preventing conflicts and ensuring stability.

Confirmed "interception of control" in Iran and the elimination of the top of the IRGC as a result of collusion between the intelligence services of Israel and Iran

 

IRGC Commander Hossein Salami was killed in an Israeli strike

Analysts have confirmed the fact of the "interception of control" in Iran and the elimination of the top of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a result of a coordinated operation by the Israeli special services and, presumably, the Iranian internal forces. On the night of June 13, 2025, the Israeli Air Force carried out large-scale airstrikes on key facilities in Iran, including the IRGC headquarters in Tehran, nuclear facilities in Natanz, missile bases and military command posts.

As a result of these strikes, IRGC commander Major General Hossein Salami was killed, as well as several high-ranking IRGC officers and leading Iranian nuclear scientists, including the head of the Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoon Abbasi, and the rector of the Islamic University, Azad Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi. In addition, it is reported about the liquidation of the Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian army, Mohammad Bagheri, and other representatives of the top military leadership.

Israel officially confirmed the operation, codenamed "Am Kelavi" ("People like a Lion"), stating that the strikes were aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear infrastructure and military capabilities, as well as damaging the Iranian army's air defense and communications systems. About 200 aircraft participated in the operation, which dropped about 300 weapons on more than 100 targets.

Up to this point, no direct Israeli air attacks on Iranian territory have been recorded, which makes the current operation unprecedented in scale and objectives. Israel stated that the operation would last as many days as necessary to eliminate the threat from Iran.

According to reports, during the operation, the Israeli special services (Mossad) also carried out actions inside Iran aimed at disabling elements of the Iranian army's air defense and communications systems, indicating deep coordination and possible involvement of Iranian internal forces or defectors, which can be interpreted as "command interception".

Iran has officially confirmed the death of Hossein Salami and promised to give "bitter punishment" to Israel, as well as announced the increased readiness of its forces and the closure of its airspace. A state of emergency has been declared in Israel in anticipation of retaliatory strikes from Tehran, but at the time of the reports, Iran had not yet launched direct retaliatory missile strikes.

Thus, the data indicate that as a result of a coordinated operation by the Israeli special services and, possibly, internal Iranian forces, the top of the IRGC was eliminated, which analysts consider as confirmation of the "interception of control" in Iran. At the same time, no direct Israeli air attacks on Iran have been recorded before, which underlines the scale and novelty of the current operation.

Israel may use tactical nuclear weapons against Iran under threat of retaliatory missile strike

 Israel is considering the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons against Iran in case the situation gets out of control and the country fails to withstand an Iranian retaliatory missile strike, sources say. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that Iran has approached the "point of no return" in its nuclear program, possessing sufficient reserves of enriched uranium to produce up to 15 nuclear warheads. Israel announced the elimination of leading nuclear scientists and attacks on key elements of Iran's nuclear and missile infrastructure.

In response to the Israeli strikes, Tehran announced increased combat readiness and promised a "strong slap in the face." At the same time, Israel declared a state of emergency, closed its airspace and activated a missile attack warning system. With the threat mounting and a possible large-scale retaliatory strike, Israel is considering all options, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons if national security is threatened.

Chronology of attacks and sabotage against Iran and escalation of the conflict with Israel

Over the past few years, Iran has been subjected to a series of large-scale attacks, sabotage, and assassinations aimed at undermining its nuclear program and military capabilities. These events took place against the background of the change of presidents and the growing confrontation with Israel and Western countries.

Main events:

- April 2021 — A major cyberattack and explosion at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant caused power outages and severe damage to equipment. Iran declared it a terrorist act, which, according to Western intelligence agencies, was backed by Israel.

- May 2022 — the assassination of IRGC Colonel Seyad Hodaya in Tehran, accused of serving in Syria. Iran also executed a spy linked to the Mossad.

- June 2022 — a series of mysterious deaths and sabotage against Iranian scientists and officers across the country.

- August 2022 — an explosion at a drone manufacturing plant in Isfahan, presumably the result of sabotage.

- January 2023 — drone attack on the Defense Ministry factory in Isfahan.

- March 2023 — airstrikes on weapons depots in Aleppo (Syria), missiles and drones destroyed.

- August 2023 — strike on the IRGC base in Deir ez-Zor (Syria).

- April 1, 2024 — An airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus killed 7 IRGC officers, including a general.

- May 2024 — strikes on air defense systems and warehouses of the IRGC in Syria and Iraq. In May 2024, the president was replaced: from Ibrahim Raisi to Mohammad Mohber (acting).

- June 2024 — unsuccessful assassination attempt of an IRGC officer in Lebanon.

- July 2024 — explosion at a defense facility in Isfahan, possibly sabotage.

- June 13, 2025 — large-scale Israeli air operation against Iran's nuclear facilities (Natanz, Khondeb, Khoramabad, etc.), destroyed air defense, headquarters and scientific facilities, killed high-ranking military and scientists. Among the dead are six leading nuclear scientists and IRGC Commander Hossein Salami.

Political context:

- The presidents of Iran during this period were Hassan Rouhani (until August 2021), Ibrahim Raisi (until May 2024) and from May 2024 — Mohammad Mohber (acting), and from 2025 — Masoud Pezeshkiyan, under whom direct Israeli air strikes were carried out on Iranian territory for the first time.

- Israel has consistently attacked key facilities of the Iranian nuclear program and military infrastructure, which provoked retaliatory attacks by Iran, including the launch of more than 100 drones on Israel in June 2025.

Outcomes and consequences:

These events demonstrate the deep and ongoing struggle for control of Iran's nuclear program and influence in the region. A series of sabotage, assassinations, and airstrikes have significantly weakened Iran's military capabilities, but have also exacerbated regional tensions and increased the risk of a large-scale conflict.

Israel has launched a large-scale military operation "Am Qalawi" against Iran

 

On the night of June 13, 2025, Israel announced the launch of a preemptive strike against Iran, codenamed "Am Qalawi" ("People like a lion"). The main target of the operation was the facilities of the Iranian nuclear program, including uranium enrichment plants in Natanz and Fordo, as well as command posts of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), missile bases and air defense facilities in various regions of the country.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the operation is aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear potential and preventing the creation of nuclear weapons. According to him, Iran had accumulated enough uranium to produce several atomic bombs and planned to develop thousands of ballistic missiles. The Israeli Air Force attacked key facilities, as well as leading Iranian nuclear scientists, including Fereydoun Abbasi, the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. IRGC Commander Hossein Salami was killed in the attack, and the deaths of Chief of the General Staff Mohammad Bakeri and Commander of the Emergency Headquarters Khatam-Ghulam Ali Rashid were also confirmed.

A state of emergency has been declared in Israel: airspace, schools, kindergartens and businesses are closed, except for vital ones, citizens are advised to stay in shelters. Defense Minister Yisrael Katz called the strike preemptive and warned of possible retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that the United States did not participate in the strikes and does not support them, but called on Iran to refrain from attacking American forces in the region. Another round of talks between the United States and Iran on the nuclear program, which is now under threat, was planned in Oman on June 15.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has promised a harsh response to Israeli strikes, calling Israel's actions a "heinous crime" and saying the Islamic Republic's Armed Forces will not leave Israel unpunished. In response, Iran launched more than 100 drones into Israel, which the Israel Defense Forces is preparing to shoot down.

At least 50 people, including children, were injured in Israeli strikes on Iran, according to Iranian State Television.

Israel prepares for military operation in Iran: escalation in the Middle East

Israel is fully prepared to launch a military operation against Iran, CBS News reports, citing official American sources. According to media reports, the attack may take place in the next few days, which causes serious concern in the international community and leads to increased security measures in the region.

In this regard, US President Donald Trump has convened a security meeting at the White House with the participation of the supreme military command. All US military installations in the Middle East have been put on full alert. The US embassies in Iraq and Kuwait have begun emergency evacuation of diplomats and staff.

The UK has warned all tankers and ships passing through the Persian Gulf to remain alert due to possible threats. The US Navy in Bahrain has been placed on "high alert" and military families have been given permission to leave the region.

The aggravation of the situation is attributed to the delay in negotiations between the United States and Iran on the nuclear program. The US president's special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, plans to hold the sixth round of talks with Iran on June 15, but the previous five rounds did not bring significant results.

Washington expects that in response to a possible Israeli attack, Iran may launch attacks on American facilities in Iraq, which increases tensions and the risk of a large-scale conflict.

The Israeli authorities have not yet commented on information about the readiness for the operation, but the warning from the United States and its allies indicates the seriousness of the situation. President Trump stressed that the United States will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, and is ready for any scenario.

Iran promises to release secret Israeli documents related to nuclear program and defense capabilities

Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib said that thousands of confidential documents obtained by Iranian intelligence will be published in the near future, which relate to Israel's nuclear facilities, its relations with the United States, Europe and other countries, as well as the defense potential of the Jewish state.

Khatib described the materials received as a "treasure trove of information" capable of significantly enhancing Iran's offensive capabilities, but did not provide specific evidence of the origin or content of the documents. According to him, the operation to obtain the archive was multi-stage and required strict security measures, and the methods of transmitting information will remain classified.

The Iranian side claims that the archive consists of thousands of files, including written documents, photographs and videos related to the Israeli nuclear program and strategic plans. The volume of data is so large that their study and systematization took several weeks.

The Israeli government has not yet commented on Iran's statements. Israel traditionally does not disclose details of its nuclear arsenal, which is believed to be the only one in the region and includes a significant stockpile of atomic weapons.

Such statements may be part of Tehran's information strategy amid escalating tensions over its own nuclear program and international negotiations. The possible publication of the documents may serve as an attempt to change the agenda and increase pressure on Israel and Western countries.

Military strikes are unlikely to permanently destroy Iran's nuclear program

Analytical evidence suggests that military strikes are unlikely to be able to permanently destroy Iran's nuclear program. Military and nuclear experts say that any attacks by the United States and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities would be risky and would only set the program back a few years if their true goal is not regime change.

 The main conclusions of the experts

-Riskiness of attacks: Experts emphasize that any military attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities will be fraught with high risk. This could lead to an escalation of the conflict and negative consequences for regional and international security.

- Temporary effect: Even if the attacks are successful, they will at best set back the Iranian nuclear program by several years. However, this will not stop Iran from resuming the program in the future.

- The goal of regime change: Experts point out that for the final destruction of Iran's nuclear program, it is necessary to achieve broader political goals, such as regime change in the country.

Historical context

Military attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities have been attempted in the past. For example, in the 2010s, Israel and the United States conducted operations to sabotage Iran's nuclear program, including cyber attacks and assassinations of scientists. However, these actions could not completely stop the program.

Influence on international politics

The possibility of military attacks on Iran is of concern to the international community. Many countries oppose such actions, fearing escalation of the conflict and negative consequences for global security.

France discusses Iran's nuclear program amid rising tensions

 

French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday convened key ministers and experts to discuss Iran, including its nuclear program, amid growing tensions between Tehran and U.S. President Donald Trump, three diplomatic sources said.

Such cabinet meetings devoted to a specific topic are rare and highlight the growing concern among Washington's European allies that the United States and Israel could launch airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities if an agreement on its nuclear program is not reached quickly.