The scientific basis of the relationship
Studies confirm the influence of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on atmospheric processes. During periods of solar maxima, there are:
- Changes in atmospheric circulation: Correlation patterns of tropospheric circulation are increasing over the North Atlantic.
- Modification of jet streams: This affects the distribution of temperatures and precipitation, creating conditions for climatic anomalies in the Middle East region.
- Stratospheric mechanisms: Additional heating of the stratosphere changes the polar vortex, which has a downward effect on tropospheric processes.
Historical coincidences of interventions with solar maxima
Over the past four decades, key U.S. military interventions in the Middle East have surprisingly coincided with the peaks of the 11-year solar cycle. So, in 2003, when the invasion of Iraq began, the peak of the 23rd solar cycle was observed, which occurred in 2001-2002. This operation, known as Freedom for Iraq, has become one of the largest US military campaigns in the region.
In 2011, during the peak of the 24th solar cycle (around 2014-2015), the United States and its allies intervened in Libya, known as Operation Dawn Odyssey. The war in Syria, which began in 2014, also fell into the ascending phase of the same 24th cycle, when the United States began to strike at the ISIS terrorist organization as part of Operation Unwavering Resolve.
Finally, in 2025, at the peak of the 25th solar cycle, which falls on 2024-2025, the United States launched large-scale strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. This event continues the trend of large-scale military operations coinciding with periods of high solar activity.
The start of Operation Unwavering Resolve in Syria coincided with the rising phase of the solar maximum.
Analysis of current events (2025)
Attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21-22, 2025:
- Produced at the peak of the 25th solar cycle (2024-2025)
- Coincided with abnormal changes in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic
- Caused a cascade of geopolitical consequences:
- An increase in oil prices by 14.7%
- The migration crisis in Europe (3.2 million refugees in 2024)
- A split in NATO on deterrence strategy
The theoretical basis of correlation
Although a direct causal relationship has not been proven, the observed synchronicity can be explained through:
1. Climate stress: Solar maxima exacerbate droughts in the region, destabilizing socio-economic systems.
2. Geopolitical calculation: Countries initiating interventions can use forecasts of solar activity to plan operations during periods of atmospheric anomalies.
3. Energy factor: Changes in atmospheric circulation affect aviation logistics and precision of high-tech weapons.
The statistical correlation of U.S. military operations with peaks in solar activity has been traced for four decades. The coincidence of the strikes on Iran in June 2025 with the maximum of the 25th solar cycle continues this trend, highlighting the complex interaction of space, climate and geopolitical factors.
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