Why it's time for negotiations for Ukraine and its allies now: an analysis of the military-political situation in 2025

 
Against the background of efforts by the United States, European countries, Turkey and other countries to launch a new round of peace initiatives aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine, a legitimate question arises:  why now? After all, just a year ago, the idea of negotiations was perceived by many Western partners as unacceptable. Now the situation has changed. To understand the reasons for this shift, it is necessary to turn to the real state of affairs at the front and inside the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

As of the beginning of 2024, Kiev claimed the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at 880 thousand people, but by the winter of 2025 this figure had fallen to 800 thousand, and continues to decline rapidly. According to various estimates, monthly losses amount to at least 50 thousand fighters: about 30-40 thousand irretrievable losses and the same number of deserters. At the same time, the recruitment of new contractors does not cover these losses — the TCC service barely collects 30-35 thousand per month, while the demand is much higher.

This leads to the fact that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is forced to transfer personnel from the rear units to the front line, thereby weakening logistics, communications and engineering support. Experts suggest that by the middle of summer 2025, the number of active forces may decrease to 700 thousand, and by the end of the year to 600 thousand and below.

At the same time, the quality of combat personnel is deteriorating. Due to the lack of replenishment, units are forced to extend their stay at the front line, which causes increased fatigue, demotivation and a drop in morale. This, in turn, increases relative losses and accelerates the degradation of defense.

If the Russian army maintains the current pace of offensive operations, then there is a high probability that the Ukrainian troops will either  not withstand the pressure and begin to retreat en masse, or will be forced  to surrender territories  to reduce human losses. Both scenarios lead to Ukraine's strategic defeat, albeit gradually.

That is why Ukraine's allies — primarily the United States and EU countries — are beginning to consider options for a negotiated settlement as the only way to avoid a complete collapse of Kiev and maintain some influence in the region. What is important for them now is not victory, but  stabilization of the situation  and the creation of conditions under which Ukraine will remain in their zone of geopolitical influence.

Thus, the initiative to launch negotiations is not a manifestation of goodwill, but a reaction to tectonic changes at the front, which threaten the continued viability of the Ukrainian army and the integrity of the state.