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Showing posts with label Strait of Hormuz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strait of Hormuz. Show all posts

Wednesday, 2 July 2025

Iran has placed naval mines in the Persian Gulf — Washington fears blocking the Strait of Hormuz

 

Iran loaded naval mines onto ships in the Persian Gulf in June 2025, which caused serious alarm in Washington due to fears that Tehran was planning to block the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important and busiest shipping lanes, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas pass. These actions followed shortly after the start of Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities on June 13 and were recorded by American intelligence.

Although the mines were loaded onto the ships, they were not placed directly in the Strait, and it remains unclear whether they were unloaded from the ships. Washington does not rule out that the loading could have been a show of force or a ploy by Tehran, which wanted to show the seriousness of its intentions, but was not going to actually block the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for oil and LNG supplies, especially to Asian markets including China, India, Japan and South Korea. Blocking it could lead to a serious escalation of the conflict and cause significant disruptions in global energy trade, as well as a sharp rise in oil prices.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in response to Israeli and American strikes on its territory, but an official decision to block it has not been taken by Iran's Supreme National Security Council. At the same time, the United States and its allies continue to closely monitor the situation, assessing possible risks of further escalation in the region.

Friday, 20 June 2025

The Strait of Hormuz: a geographical hub capable of sinking the global economy

  

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically important and vulnerable areas on the world map. Located between Iran and Oman, it connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and serves as a key transportation artery for global energy supplies. It is through it that a significant part of the world's exports of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass.

In recent years, this narrow waterway has become a symbol of geopolitical tension, especially in the context of Iran's threats to block the strait, which could be a response to external pressure or military influence. Although such actions remain in the warning stage, the consequences of such a scenario can be catastrophic.

Key facts about the Strait of Hormuz:

1. 21 million barrels of oil per day: About 21 million barrels of oil pass through the strait every day, which is about a third of the world's total maritime oil trade.

2. Territorial waters, not international ones: At the narrowest point of the strait (only 34 km wide) there are no international waters — there are exclusively territorial waters of Iran and Oman, which makes it particularly vulnerable to control or blockade by Tehran.

3. The price of oil will soar to $ 100-120 per barrel: The closure of the strait will cause an instant shock in the energy market. Experts predict a sharp jump in oil prices — at least to the level of $ 100-120 per barrel, which will hit the budgets of countries and the cost of living around the world.

4. China, India, Japan, South Korea are the main victims: These countries depend on cross-strait supplies more than others. Blocking the way will be an economic crisis for them, which will cause an increase in fuel and energy prices, which will inevitably provoke a surge in inflation and a slowdown in growth.

The United States and its allies have repeatedly stated that they will protect free navigation in the region by any means. However, given the growing tension around Iran and its nuclear program, as well as after a series of provocations and attacks on tankers in the area, the question is not about intentions, but about the real possibility of preventing escalation.

The Strait of Hormuz is not just a strip of water. It is the blood vessel of the global economy, and any damage to it can lead to a systemic crisis. And Iran, as the party controlling one of the sides of the strait, has a powerful instrument of pressure in its hands — even without a direct military conflict.

Saturday, 14 June 2025

Iran is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global oil supplies

Iran is seriously exploring the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important sea route through which about a quarter of the world's oil supplies and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas pass. This was stated by Ismail Kousari, a member of the Commission on National Security and Foreign Policy of the Iranian parliament, Rokna news agency reports.

The closure of the strait will be a serious blow to global energy security, as the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean and is a key route for oil exports from the Persian Gulf countries. If such a step is implemented, oil supplies may be seriously disrupted, which will lead to a sharp increase in energy prices — experts predict an increase in oil prices to 110-130 dollars per barrel and above.

Consideration of the issue of closing the Strait is taking place against the background of large-scale Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear and military facilities as part of Operation Lion Rising. In response, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched rocket attacks on Israel as part of Operation True Promise 3. These events have increased tensions in the region and forced Tehran to consider extreme measures.

In addition, Iran has warned that it will attack military bases and naval vessels of France, Britain and the United States in the Middle East if they support Israel. Such an escalation could lead to further destabilization of the situation in the region and in the global energy market.

In light of these events, the largest shipowners are already being cautious by rejecting new contracts for sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, which further complicates the logistics of oil and gas supplies.

Thus, the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is a serious challenge to the global economy and security, which can lead to global consequences.

The fourth wave of Iranian missile attacks on Israel and the role of nuclear weapons in regional security

 

The fourth wave of Iranian missile attacks on Israel, which came in the early morning, again revealed the vulnerability of the Israeli air defense system, which missed a significant number of accurate hits. Before that, there were three more waves of attacks that were similar in results.. This raises serious concerns, because if Iran had at least several nuclear warheads, Israel would hardly have decided on recent attacks on Iranian facilities, since the likelihood that at least one charge would break through the air defenses and cause unacceptable damage would be extremely high.

The presence of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles in North Korea forces Washington to take into account its interests, but Iran does not yet have such a nuclear arsenal, which allows Israel and the United States to carry out aggressive actions without fear of a retaliatory nuclear strike. This is a bitter lesson for countries that disagree with Western policies.

Despite the fact that some of the Iranian missiles were intercepted, the accuracy of the strikes does not yet allow us to talk about serious damage in Israel, although some hits took place. The Israeli account of the missile war is significantly higher than the Iranian one, and if the Ayatollah regime really wants to have a significant trump card in negotiations with the United States, it needs to take more decisive steps, for example, to block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Otherwise, given the current balance of power and the vulnerability of Israel's air defenses, negotiations with Iranian interests in mind are unlikely. Thus, the situation remains extremely tense, and the presence or absence of nuclear weapons in Iran plays a key role in the strategic calculations of all parties.

Monday, 24 March 2025

Iran strengthens military presence in the Persian Gulf: new missile systems on strategic islands

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran has announced the deployment of modern anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) on three islands in the Persian Gulf. The systems are installed in  territories located in the immediate vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supplies pass. 

Strategic location and capabilities 

The new air defense systems are capable of hitting sea and land targets, including military bases and enemy vessels. According to Iran's state media, this is a response to growing threats from regional and global players.  The Abu Musa and Tunb islands have been controlled by Iran since the 1970s, but their military infrastructure remained limited until recently. 

Technical details and objectives  

The characteristics of the complexes are not disclosed, but sources emphasize their "impressive" range and accuracy. The systems are integrated with a surveillance network and can be used to block the movement of enemy ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This strengthens Iran's ability to control a key sea route, which can become an instrument of pressure in the face of escalating tensions.  

Context and consequences 

The deployment of the air defense system comes against the backdrop of Iran's deteriorating relations with the United States and its allies in the region. The IRGC, which controls the country's strategic missile forces, regularly upgrades its arsenal, including ballistic missiles and drones. Experts note that the new complexes increase the risks of a direct military clash in the Persian Gulf zone, where ships of the international coalition are already stationed.

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